MAC football predictions: Top contenders, sleepers and championship picks
The MAC could be an incredibly even league again in 2023.
In 2022, nine of the league’s 12 teams had conference records between 3-5 and 5-3. Toledo won the MAC West with a 5-3 conference record and Kent State finished fifth out of six teams in the MAC East at 4-4.
There are just two new coaches in the league as only Kent State and Western Michigan changed coaches in the offseason. Kent State had to find a new coach after Sean Lewis left to become Deion Sanders’ offensive coordinator at Colorado, and Western Michigan fired Tim Lester after a disappointing 5-7 season.
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Former Louisville offensive coordinator Lance Taylor takes over for Lester in Kalamazoo, while former Minnesota assistant Kenni Burns is Kent State’s new coach. It may take a few years for both coaches to get their programs turned around, but given the parity in the MAC, it’s no guarantee each will finish at the bottom of their respective divisions.
Here’s what you need to know about the MAC with the season fast approaching.
Toledo aims to repeat
If you’re looking for a deep sleeper Group of Five team to contend for a New Year’s Six bowl berth, Toledo is an interesting option.
The defending MAC champions have a roster stocked with returning talent and a schedule that makes an undefeated season possible, even if it’s improbable.
QB DeQuan Finn is back after he had 32 total TDs over 12 games in 2022 as he dealt with an ankle injury. Finn was still the team’s second-leading rusher behind RB Jacquez Stuart (770 yards) and Stuart is also back for 2023. Top receiver Jerjuan Newton also returns after averaging over 15 yards per catch and hauling in nine TDs on 53 receptions.
The defense returns the entire starting secondary as all five starters are either juniors or seniors. LB Dallas Gant is back after leading the team with 116 tackles, though the defense must replace the production of both Desjuan Johnson and Jamal Hines (26.5 TFL combined in 2022).
The Rockets have a chance to do what Western Michigan did in 2016 and become the MAC’s second team to make a New Year’s Six bowl because of a schedule that has just one Power Five opponent. The Rockets will be underdogs at Illinois in Week 1, but an upset isn’t impossible. Toledo’s other three non-conference games are winnable with Texas Southern and San Jose State, both at home, and UMass on the road.
Throw in an undefeated run through the MAC with three non-conference wins and you can see the path to a New Year’s Six bowl even if you have to squint really hard.
Ohio’s quest for a MAC title
Is 2023 the year Ohio snaps its MAC championship drought?
The Bobcats made their fifth MAC title game in 2022 after a 9-3 regular season and an East Division title. But like the previous four games, Ohio lost in December as Toledo won the MAC with a 17-7 victory.
Ohio hasn’t won the MAC since it went 10-1 in 1968. It’s a streak that almost seems incomprehensible; the Bobcats have won at least eight games 10 times since 2006 as they’ve been a perennial contender in the conference.
Eight wins could be the floor for this year’s version of the Bobcats given the talent that returns on offense from last year’s 10-4 team. QB Kurtis Rourke is back and should be fully healthy after he missed the final three games of the season with a knee injury. Rourke threw for 3,257 yards and 25 TDs to just four interceptions across 11 games; it’s easy to see Ohio beating Toledo last December if he’s on the field.
Running back Sieh Bangura rushed for nearly five yards a carry and 13 TDs as a freshman in 2022, while leading receiver Sam Wiglusz (73 catches, 877 yards, 11 TDs) is also back with four starters on the offensive line.
The defense needs to replace three starters in the front seven and two starters in the secondary after it got significantly better as the season went on. Ohio gave up 31 or more points in each of the first six games of the season in 2022 before not allowing more than 27 over the final eight. Throw in a schedule that has Miami (Ohio) at home and doesn’t include Toledo or Eastern Michigan, and this is a team that could make back-to-back MAC title game appearances for the first time ever.
A league of intriguing QBs
There are other QBs worth keeping an eye on outside of Finn and Rourke.
Miami's (Ohio) chances of contention in the MAC may hinge on the availability of Brett Gabbert (brother of Blaine). He played in just four games in 2022 because of a shoulder injury. Gabbert threw for 26 TDs over 10 games in 2021 and should provide a boost to a RedHawks team that could compete with Ohio in the East.
Bert Emanuel Jr. — yes, the son of the former NFL wide receiver — could start at Central Michigan after he saw playing time late in the season. Emanuel Jr. played in just four games and attempted eight passes but ran 67 times for 496 yards and seven TDs. Northern Illinois QB Rocky Lombardi is back for a sixth season of college football after playing just four games in 2022. Lombardi had 24 total TDs in 2021 in his first season at NIU.
DJ Irons could also take a step forward in his second season in Joe Moorhead’s offense at Akron. Irons threw for 2,606 yards and had 14 total touchdowns in 10 games in 2022 as the Zips were much more competitive than they were in 2021.
Elsewhere in the conference, Bowling Green added former Missouri and Indiana quarterback Connor Bazelak and he’ll compete with Camden Orth for the starting job. Former Arkansas State and Texas State quarterback Layne Hatcher is now at Ball State as the Cardinals also added former Kent State RB Marquez Cooper via the transfer portal.
Which MAC team is most overrated?
Sam Cooper: Buffalo. The Bulls were a very inconsistent team last year and have brought in DJ Mangas, a former LSU assistant who coached under Joe Brady when the Tigers won the national title, to run the offense. That was a pretty pass-happy offense, but I’m not sure the Bulls have the pass-catchers to fit that style. Buffalo is not a team I’m expecting to climb up the MAC standings.
Nick Bromberg: Bowling Green. The Falcons took a step forward in 2022 with a 6-7 record and a bowl berth for the first time since 2015. I’m not sure Bowling Green will be able to build off that success in 2023, however. The Falcons were 5-2 in one-score games a season ago and beat a Miami team without Gabbert and stunned Toledo on the road. This year’s schedule includes road trips to Liberty and two Power Five schools (Michigan and Georgia Tech) and games against Ohio and Toledo and a trip to the RedHawks. The margin for error for another bowl appearance is extremely slim.
Which team is a sleeper to contend for the MAC title?
Sam: Central Michigan (+2000 to win the MAC). CMU went 9-4 with a big Sun Bowl win over Washington State in 2021 but then fell to 4-8 last fall. The Chippewas dealt with a lot of injuries and I think they have the chance to bounce back and maybe even compete with Toledo for the MAC West title. CMU played a lot of young players on defense last fall and I trust Jim McElwain to find a way to score more points.
Nick: Northern Illinois (+1300). Lombardi’s return is a boost to a team that had a brutal start to the 2022 season. NIU went 1-5 over the first half of the season and lost three of those games by one score. The Huskies have to make a trip to Toledo but draw Ohio, Eastern Michigan and Ball State all at home while the rest of the road schedule is manageable. If NIU can find some skill position players to step up and help Lombardi, don’t be surprised if NIU is in contention for the MAC West late in the season.
What is your favorite MAC win total bet?
Sam: Akron over 4 wins. Akron had five conference losses by a single-digit margin last season and has really upgraded the talent on the roster through the portal. I have a lot of faith in Joe Moorhead to produce a good offense and I won’t be surprised if the Zips make a bowl game this year.
Nick: Ohio over 7.5 wins. This pick may hinge on Ohio getting a win at Florida Atlantic on Sept. 9 but I think the Bobcats are capable of doing that. If Ohio gets that win, the Bobcats likely have to just go 6-2 in the MAC for this bet to cash.
Who is your pick to win the MAC title?
Sam: Ohio. OU was the best team in the MAC last year until Kurtis Rourke got injured. Rourke is the best player in the conference and can make a difference in a title game rematch with Toledo, which always seems to under-perform despite its talent edge. I’m predicting the MAC title drought will finally end.
Nick: Ohio. I’m also going with the Bobcats despite noting the existence of Toledo’s very narrow path to a New Year’s Six bowl game. While the Rockets have a much easier schedule than the Bobcats, I think Ohio is easily the best team in the East and Rourke is the best QB in the league. The Bobcats are well-equipped to handle the Rockets in a rematch with a team at full-strength.
MAC title odds
Toledo (+165)
Ohio (+275)
Miami (Ohio) (+800)
Buffalo (+900)
Eastern Michigan (+900)
Northern Illinois (+1300)
Central Michigan (+2000)
Ball State (+3500)
Bowling Green (+3500)
Akron (+3500)
Western Michigan (+8000)
Kent State (+20000)
