Looking for long shots in all the wrong places? You might find value at the Breeders’ Cup.
If you’re the type of bettor who goes to the races rummaging for underdogs, well, there’s a reason they’re called long shots.
That 55-1 attraction in the third race at Ellis Park might be a horse who’s never raced, or never won or has yet to reveal his true pedigree. Money wagered on a dearth of past performances makes for Powerball-level guesswork.
This weekend, the entries for the 39th annual Breeders’ Cup World Championships of Thoroughbred racing in Lexington are, of course, pocked with long shots.
However, it’s difficult to find a racehorse that does not belong at Keeneland this Friday and Saturday. Somebody has to finish last, but the Breeders’ Cup bestows some of the most overqualified long shots you’ll find anywhere.
Look at the Breeders’ Cup Classic, headlined by 3-5 favorite Flightline. If things don’t go quite as expected, is there an opening for a money maker? The longest shot on the morning line is Happy Saver at 30-1.
Trained by Todd Pletcher, the 5-year-old son of Super Saver, has finished first five times, second five times and third once in 12 career races. He ran second to Flightline in the Grade 1 Metropolitan Handicap at Belmont Park by 6 lengths on June 11.
Smells like value.
“Happy Saver is coming in as a bit of an underdog,” Pletcher said this week. “His work has been very good and he’s been successful at a mile and a quarter. He’s the type of horse that if things don’t develop up front he can run pretty fast and come back to the closers to keep his chances alive.”
America’s favorite long shot, Rich Strike — winner of the 2022 Kentucky Derby at 80-1 odds — is the second-longest bet in Saturday’s Classic at 20-1. If trainer Eric Reed’s late-running 3-year-old winds up the longest shot again at post time Saturday, are you ready to be fooled twice by not at least putting a couple of bucks toward the possibility of a second thunderbolt?
A year ago, when Rich Strike was claimed for $30,000 out of a maiden victory at Churchill Downs, did Reed imagine he’d contend for a Breeders’ Cup garland someday?
“Did I think I had a horse for the Classic? That would be a big NO in capital letters,” Reed said Tuesday. “I just wanted him to be good enough to try for the (Kentucky) Derby.”
A deep dive
The morning line for Friday’s $2 million Juvenile includes three contenders at 30-1. Hurricane J is undefeated in two starts at Ellis Park and Keeneland and the son of a former Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner in Nyquist.
Of course, nobody’s promising a rose garden at 30-1: This will be his first test against graded stakes competition.
A daughter of Nyquist also hit the morning line at 30-1. Awake at Midnyte was runner-up in her most recent race, the Grade 2 Zenyatta Stakes at Santa Anita on Oct. 2. Worth a wager in the $2 million Distaff on Saturday?
“She’s a good-sized filly,” trainer Doug O’Neill said this week. “She’s got tons of heart like her father. She’s really versatile like Nyquist, too. She could sprint or route. She’s got some speed, some stamina, class and heart. Those are all things that Nyquist had for sure.”
Yet another intriguing case is Slow Down Andy, one of three 30-1 shots on the morning line for the Saturday’s $1 million Dirt Mile.
The 3-year-old son of — you guessed it! — Nyquist has four firsts, three seconds and a third from nine career starts for O’Neill. His wins this year include the Grade 3 Sunland Park Derby and the Grade 2 Del Mar Derby. He missed out on a shot at this year’s Kentucky Derby because of illness after piling up 60 qualifying points for the Run for the Roses.
“He’s been such a versatile horse, winning the Del Mar Derby long on the turf and he ran great in the Awesome Again long on the dirt,” O’Neill told the Daily Racing Form last week. “He can do just about anything. We tried to pick the race where we thought we had the best chance to get the best results.”
Just for fun
Shuffle a little farther through the 168 entrants headed postward this weekend and there’s frivolity, foreign invaders and food on the long-shot menu.
A 2-year-old named Curly Larry and Mo is one of three 30-1 shots on the morning line for the $1 million Juvenile Turf. Worth slapsticking a couple dollars on the counter? He won his most recent race, in a field of 12 at Keeneland no less, on Oct. 15 at the same 1-mile distance as Friday’s race.
So, he’s no stooge.
Nautilus, a 30-1 shot in the $4 million Turf on Saturday, has never raced outside Brazil. What he has done, though, is hit the board 13 times in 17 career races, with six wins, four seconds and three thirds. The 3-year-old’s most recent victory came in his most recent race, the Grade 1 Grande Premio Brasil, a Breeders’ Cup Challenge Series win that punched his ticket to Keeneland.
A son of 2011 Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Drosselmeyer — himself a 14-1 shot in that race — Nautilus won the Grande Premio Brasil at the same 1 ½-mile distance as the Breeders’ Cup Turf.
Foodies? How about Hot Peppers, a 30-1 shot in the $1 million Filly and Mare Sprint? She’s hit the board seven times in nine prior races including five victories.
That could be a spicy way to start your day as Saturday’s first Breeders’ Cup race at 11:50 a.m.
2022 Breeders’ Cup
What: World championships of Thoroughbred horse racing, including 14 races over two days
When: Friday and Saturday
Where: Keeneland Race Course in Lexington
2022 Breeders’ Cup World Championships schedule at Keeneland with post times, TV
Todd Pletcher hopes Keeneland experience makes a difference in Breeders’ Cup Juvenile
Back from suspension, Bob Baffert will have an impact on this weekend’s Breeders’ Cup
Breeders’ Cup: What to know after post-position draws for every World Championship race
Q and A: Everything you need to know about this week’s 39th Breeders’ Cup at Keeneland
The John Clay Podcast: Breeders’ Cup President and CEO Drew Fleming
A stake is for sale in one of racing’s hottest horses. Here’s how and when to bid.
‘It feels unreal.’ Flightline a dream come true for Jane Lyon and Summer Wind Farm.
