Here are the long shots to bet who could beat the favorites in Kentucky Derby 2024

According to most horse racing handicappers, Kentucky Derby 150 has a pair of potential superstars in morning-line favorite Fierceness and second-choice Sierra Leone.

The favorite doesn’t always win the Kentucky Derby, however. In fact, we’ve gone five straight years in which the post-time favorite failed to make it to the Churchill Downs winner’s circle. That includes Country House’s 2019 win as a 65-1 shot, Rich Strike’s 2022 win at 80-1 and Mage last year at 15-1.

With that in mind, here are a trio of interesting long shots, all three 20-1 in the morning Line, that deserve a closer look Saturday:

7. Honor Marie

After a second-place finish in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby on March 23, Honor Marie turned in a bullet 5-furlong work of :59.20 at Churchill last week for 42-year-old trainer Whit Beckman, a Louisville native who has his first Derby starter and who also spent part of the week in the hospital with rhabdomyolysis before returning to his barn on Wednesday.

It’s not Honor Marie’s first start at Churchill, however. The son of Honor Code won the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club as a 2-year-old last November. After a disappointing fifth-place finish in the Risen Star in his 3-year-old debut on Feb. 17, Honor Marie bounced back to lose by just a length to trainer Brad Cox’s Chasing Freedom in the Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds.

Beckman is considered an up-and-comer on the training circuit. The son of equine veterinarian Dr. David Beckman, he worked for Chad Brown, Todd Pletcher and Eion Harty, spending time in Saudi Arabia, before opening up his own stable with two horses in 2021. Beckman’s horses recorded 13 wins and earned over $1.4 million in 2023.

3. Mystik Dan

Lexington trainer Kenny McPeek is sending his 10th Kentucky Derby starter to the post in Mystik Dan. McPeek recorded his 2,000th career victory in February, has a pair of Triple Crown victories (Sarava in the 2002 Belmont and the filly Swiss Skydiver in the 2020 Preakness) to his credit, but is looking for his first Derby victory.

Mystik Dan won the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes by 8 lengths at Oaklawn on Feb. 3 before finishing behind Muth and Just Steel in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby on March 30. Because of Churchill’s suspension of trainer Bob Baffert, Muth is not in this year’s Derby. Just Steel is in the field for 88-year-old trainer D. Wayne Lukas.

Mystik Dan is owned by Lance Gasaway, 4 G Racing, Daniel Hamby III and Midway’s Valley View Farm. Gasaway was a Hall of Fame wide receiver at the University of Arkansas at Monticello who would make the two-hour trip to Oaklawn from rural Gould, Arkansas, with his father to watch the races. Before he left for Kentucky this year, Lance planted a Kentucky Derby flag at the grave of Clint Gasaway, who died on May 4 of last year.

18. Stronghold

It’s not often a colt coming off a Grade 1 win is 20-1 in the Kentucky Derby morning line, but such is the case for Santa Anita Derby winner Stronghold, who is 2-for-2 in his 2024 starts.

Part of that has to do with the belief that the absence of the Santa Anita-based Baffert means the best California horses did not make the trip to Louisville. But after shipping Muth to Hot Springs for the Arkansas Derby, Baffert ran Imagination in the Santa Anita Derby, only to see the even-money favorite lose by a neck to Stronghold, who was coming off a win in the Grade 3 Sunland Park Derby on Feb. 18.

Trained by Phil D’Amato, Stronghold had finished second to Baffert’s Wynstock in the Los Alamitos Futurity on Dec. 16 before beating Wynstock (sixth) in the Santa Anita Derby. A son of Ghostzapper, Stronghold has never finished worse than second in his six career starts. He’s a homebred for California natives Eric and Sharon Waller. He’s also the first Derby starter for D’Amato, who was an assistant to the late Mike Mitchell for 11 years before taking over the barn when Mitchell retired in 2013. Mitchell died of cancer in 2014.

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