Live updates: When will Thursday’s storm hit Lexington? How powerful could it be?
Potentially severe weather is expected to hit much of Kentucky Thursday, bringing the possibility of damaging wind gusts, hail and possible tornadoes, according to the National Weather Service.
The first wave of the storm is expected to last until approximately 10 a.m. Thursday and the second wave, potentially the more hazardous wave, will arrive in the afternoon.
Some counties in Eastern Kentucky are under a flood watch while some Western Kentucky counties are under a tornado watch, according to the NWS. More advisories could be issued out later Thursday.
Numerous showers & storms continue to move in from the SW to the NE. Some storms could be severe with gusty winds. Morning commute will wet & at times with torrential downpour. Strong to severe storms are poss. today into the evening. #KYwx pic.twitter.com/Gip0ZJeeQx
— NWS Louisville (@NWSLouisville) February 16, 2023
Here’s the latest of what we know about Thursday’s storm:
Forkland Road in Boyle County back open
2:55 p.m. — The transportation cabinet is reporting that Forkland Road/KY 37 has been fully reopened.
The road was previously closed between mile-markers 0.0 and 3.1 due to high water.
Update - high water
Boyle County
Forkland Road/KY 37
- now open between KY 243 at mile point 0.0 and milepoint 3.1— KYTC District 7 (@KYTCDistrict7) February 16, 2023
Flood advisory in Fayette County extended
1:19 p.m. — The flood advisory issued to Fayette and surrounding counties has been extended to at least 4:30 p.m., the NWS said.
Included in the flood advisory along with Fayette County are Bourbon, Boyle, Casey, Clark, Garrard, Jessamine, Lincoln, Madison, Marion, Mercer, Nelson, Nicholas, Taylor, Washington and Woodford counties, according to the NWS.
The NWS said 1 to 3 inches of rain have fallen in the area. An additional 2 inches of rain are expected, which will cause flooding to low-lying or poor drainage areas.
Anderson, Breckinridge, Bullitt, Grayson, Green, Hancock, Hardin, Hart, LaRue, Marion, Meade, Nelson, Ohio, Spencer, Taylor and Washington counties are all under a flash flood warning until at least 2:30 p.m. eastern time, according to the NWS. Two to four inches of rain have already fallen in the area with an additional two inches expected later Thursday.
Several counties in Eastern Kentucky are under a flood warning until at least 6 p.m. local time, the NWS said. The counties included in the warning are Bath, Breathitt, Clay, Estill, Fleming, Jackson, Lee, Magoffin, Menifee, Montgomery, Owsley, Powell, Rockcastle, Rowan and Wolfe counties.
Roads in Central Kentucky closed for high water
1:10 p.m. — The Kentucky Transportation Cabinet is reporting that multiple roads in Central Kentucky are closed due to high water.
In Anderson County, Avenstoke Road/KY 1875 is blocked off between mile-marker two to three, according to the transportation cabinet. Forkland Road/KY 37 in Boyle County is closed between mile-markers 0.0 and 3.1.
Update - high water
Boyle County
Forkland Road/KY 37
- closed between KY 243 at mile point 0.0 to milepoint 3.1— KYTC District 7 (@KYTCDistrict7) February 16, 2023
In Garrard County, Leavell Ridge Road/KY 1971 is shut down between mile-markers 2.3 and 2.7, the transportation cabinet said.
There is quite a bit of standing water and road closures across the region. Please remember to Turn Around, Don't Drown! #lmkwx #kywx #inwx pic.twitter.com/j3HZdCnWDE
— NWS Louisville (@NWSLouisville) February 16, 2023
NWS: Threat of severe weather has lessened
10:45 a.m. — The NWS has said the threat of severe weather from Thursday’s storm has lessened due to more widespread rainfall than expected.
The possibility of severe weather is still active, the NWS said, but it appears flooding and heavy rain are the biggest hazards with the storm. Southern Kentucky has the biggest chances of experiencing severe weather, according to the NWS.
Virtually all of Kentucky is under a flood watch or flood advisory except the farthest western counties.
The severe risk has lessened as we head into the afternoon due to more widespread rainfall, however we will still have a threat of strong to severe storms. The best chance for this will be across southern KY where destabilization will be most likely to occur. #kywx #inwx
— NWS Louisville (@NWSLouisville) February 16, 2023
Fayette, other Central Kentucky counties under flood advisory
10:18 a.m. — The NWS has issued a flood advisory has been issued for Fayette County along with Anderson, Bourbon, Boyle, Casey, Clark, Garrard, Jessamine, Lincoln, Madison, Marion, Mercer, Nelson, Taylor, Washington and Woodford counties.
A doppler radar located spots of heavy rain due to a thunderstorm. The NWS said Lexington, Richmond, Nicholasville, Winchester, Danville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Harrodsburg, Stanford, and Lancaster will all experience flooding.
The advisory will remain in effect until at least 1:15 p.m., according to the NWS.
Lightning sparks Bourbon Co. barn fire, kills multiple animals
10:15 a.m. — A major barn fire in Bourbon County killed multiple animals Thursday morning, according to Chief Lloyd Campbell with the Bourbon County Fire Department.
The fire happened as storms hit the region. Campbell said the National Weather Service confirmed two lightning strikes in the area of the barn roughly 10 minutes before the fire department received the call.
The barn was a total loss.
Enhanced weather risk zone shrinks, flooding chances increase
9:10 a.m. — The NWS has released a new forecast that predicts a decreased chance in severe weather but calls for a higher chance of flooding.
The enhanced risk zone from the storm considerably shrunk in the latest forecast. It extends east of Madisonville but doesn’t include Owensboro and spans all the way to Danville and Russell Springs. The zone extends all the way to Kentucky’s southern border but doesn’t go farther north than Frankfort.
Lexington is no longer included in the enhanced risk zone and instead falls in the slight risk zone along with western, northern and parts of Eastern Kentucky, according to the NWS.
The threat of tornadoes and wind damage also went slightly down while the threat of flooding rose, according to the NWS.
Waves of showers and storms will continue to produce localized heavy rain and some flooding concerns. The severe weather threat including isolated damaging winds and a few tornadoes is still on track for later today. #lmkwx #kywx #inwx pic.twitter.com/Qi8EPdiz78
— NWS Louisville (@NWSLouisville) February 16, 2023
Flash flood warning extends to part of Central Kentucky
8:58 a.m. — A flash flood warning that began in Western Kentucky has extended to Bullitt, Hardin, Nelson and Spencer counties, according to the NWS.
A doppler radar located thunderstorms that have already produced two-four inches of rain, the NWS said. An additional 2 inches of rain is possible.
The warning will remain in effect until at least noon, according to the NWS.
Flash Flood Warning including Bardstown KY, Shepherdsville KY and Mount Washington KY until 12:00 PM EST pic.twitter.com/bTJjKKx6xS
— NWS Louisville (@NWSLouisville) February 16, 2023
Flood watch extended, now includes Fayette County
8 a.m. — The NWS has expanded its flood watch across Kentucky, which now includes Fayette County.
Anderson, Bourbon, Breckinridge, Bullitt, Butler, Clark, Edmonson, Franklin, Grayson, Hancock, Hardin, Harrison, Henry, Jefferson, Jessamine, Larue, Logan, Meade, Mercer, Nelson, Nicholas, Ohio, Oldham, Scott, Shelby, Simpson, Spencer, Trimble, Warren, Washington and Woodford counties are all included in the flood watch, according to the NWS. It’s expected to last until at least late Thursday evening.
When will the storm hit Lexington?
7 a.m. — The first wave of the storm, moving south to north, arrived in the early morning hours of Thursday and is expected to stay in the area until approximately 10 a.m., according to the NWS. The second wave, which brings the threats of damaging winds and isolated tornadoes, is expected to arrive in Lexington at roughly 3 p.m. and last seven hours.
The second wave of the storm is projected to move west to east, according to the NWS. Areas of Western Kentucky could start experiencing the second wave of the storm at approximately 1 p.m., the NWS said.
Thu 1230 AM EST - Updated timing. First wave moves S to N overnight with damaging wind/hail threat. Second wave moves W to E Thu afternoon with damaging wind/tornado threat. No break for south central KY, which could lead to flooding. #kywx #inwx pic.twitter.com/j2ypI8Q6Du
— NWS Louisville (@NWSLouisville) February 16, 2023
NWS expands enhanced risk zone from storm
7 a.m. — A large portion of Kentucky is under enhanced risk from Thursday’s storm, according to the NWS.
The NWS expanded the enhanced risk zone from Wednesday’s forecast. The zone now includes all areas east of Owensboro and Madisonville and west of Morehead and Corbin. The enhanced risk zone includes Lexington, Frankfort, Richmond, Louisville, Bardstown, Elizabethtown and Bowling Green.
Areas to the east and west of the enhanced zone are under slight risk from the storm, according to the NWS. That zone includes Morehead, West Liberty, London and far Western Kentucky.
Active weather day w/ potentially strong to severe storms. Possible flooding from locally heavy rain and gusty non-thunderstorm winds later this afternoon. For the latest visit https://t.co/Q0FABsdElt #KYwx #INwx pic.twitter.com/1X01eut17n
— NWS Louisville (@NWSLouisville) February 16, 2023
Some counties already under flood, tornado watch
7 a.m. — Several counties in Eastern and Southern Kentucky are under a flood watch in preparation for the storm’s arrival. The NWS said the watch is in effect until at least late Thursday evening and two-three inches of rain are possible.
“Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations,” the NWS said.
Meanwhile out west, Ballard, Caldwell, Calloway, Carlisle, Christian, Crittenden, Fulton, Graves, Hickman, Hopkins, Livingston, Lyon, Marshall, McCracken, Muhlenberg, Todd and Trigg counties are all under a tornado watch until noon central time. Carlisle, Graves, Hickman and McCracken Counties are also under a flash flood warning until at least 8:45 a.m. local time.