Tropical Storm Gonzalo forms as Atlantic basin springs back to life

Tropical Depression 7 formed late Tuesday afternoon and on Wednesday morning the depression was upgraded to Tropical Storm Gonzalo, the National Hurricane Center said, as the Atlantic basin sprang back to life with multiple disturbances that had caught the attention of meteorologists.

In addition to the newly-formed tropical storm, forecasters are keeping a close eye on another disturbance that could strengthen into a tropical depression or storm over the next few days. Gonzalo has set an early-formation record for the seventh named system and a feature in the Gulf of Mexico could do the same. Both records were set during the notorious 2005 hurricane season.

The formation of Tropical Depression 7, now Tropical Storm Gonzalo, ended what was a lull in tropical activity across the basin that lasted about 10 days after Tropical Storm Fay dissolved on July 11 after moving ashore over the interior northeastern United States.

As of early Wednesday morning, Gonzalo was located far out over the open Atlantic, about 1,285 miles east of the southern Windward Islands and moving west-northwest at 12 mph with sustained wind speeds of 35 mph.

This image, captured early Wednesday morning on July 22, 2020, shows a swirl of clouds over the middle of the tropical Atlantic Ocean associated with Tropical Storm Gonzalo. South America is visible on the lower left of the image. (NOAA/GOES-East)

AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty said the "mid-ocean tropical wave already appeared to have a defined circulation visible on satellite" earlier in the day. The disturbance was located over a pool of relatively low wind shear, or changing wind with altitude, and a moist atmosphere -- both factors that favor strengthening into a tropical system.

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Waters are sufficiently warm -- in the low to mid-80s -- to support further development of this system over the next couple of days, prior to it approaching the Windward Islands.

"There is a chance Gonzalo ramps up to a Category 1 hurricane prior to reaching the Windward Islands," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Rob Miller stated.

However, as the system approaches the Caribbean, conditions may become more hostile for development and could lead to its demise.

"This system is likely to encounter increasing wind shear as well as resistance from the large landmass of South America late this week since it is a bit far south compared to other tropical systems that have developed over the years," Douty said.

Whether or not the system survives the encounter with South America and an uptick in wind shear may depend on how strong or organized it becomes prior to its arrival.

If the feature remains weak, then it is more likely to break up as it nears the Caribbean. But, if the feature ramps up quickly, then it may have a better chance of surviving and lasting for many days upon moving westward through the Caribbean.

The next name on the list of tropical storms for the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season is Gonzalo. The system is already the first true Cabo Verde tropical cyclone of the season.

Cabo Verde is a group of islands just off the coast of Africa. The Cabo Verde season makes up the backbone of the Atlantic hurricane season as tropical waves which move off the coast of Africa pass near these islands prior to moving westward over the ocean.

Prior systems this year have formed from non-tropical features closer to the U.S., in the western Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico. Cristobal originated from -- in part -- leftover moisture from an eastern Pacific system, Amanda, becoming a rare crossover storm.

Interests in the Windward Islands and along the northern coast of South America should monitor the progress of the current mid-ocean feature. If the feature holds together, an uptick in showers and thunderstorms would occur at the end of the week. Conditions may vary from needed rainfall to flash flooding and mudslides. Seas will build late in the week due to the approach of the small system.

Thousands of miles farther to the northwest, a tropical disturbance that is also a Cabo Verde tropical wave brought drenching showers and gusty thunderstorms to Cuba, South Florida and the Florida Keys during Tuesday. This is the second feature that AccuWeather meteorologists are focusing on for potential development into a depression or storm.

A mass of showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave centered on Cuba could be seen on a Tuesday, July 21, 2020, satellite image. Another weak disturbance that had pushed onshore along the upper Texas coast was also visible. (NOAA / GOES-East)

There is the risk of flash flooding and mudslides in the mountainous terrain areas of Cuba. Locally gusty squalls will affect Cuba and South Florida waters through the middle of the week.

"As this feature moves across the central and northwestern Gulf of Mexico during the second half of this week, it will be within a region conducive for tropical development with light wind shear and very warm water," Douty said.

"Since the Gulf system is likely to keep moving and then push onshore on Friday, the window for development to a tropical depression and/or storm is short," Douty added.

Regardless of development, this Gulf feature will spread drenching showers and locally gusty thunderstorms onshore into southern Louisiana beginning on Thursday and the middle and upper portions of the Texas coast on Friday.

"Rainfall of 2-4 inches is forecast with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 8 inches," Douty said, adding that enough rain is expected to cause localized urban flooding.

Only if the system were to ramp up to a tropical storm would there be the potential for strong wind gusts and more than minor coastal flooding.

Still, some strong thunderstorms can be generated by the system as it moves across the Gulf and then onshore. Boating and coastal interests should be on alert for potential squalls and waterspouts. The surf may get rough enough to lead to frequent and strong rip currents.

If the system in the Gulf were to become a tropical storm, after the current system in the central Atlantic, it would gather the name Hanna.

As of Wednesday morning, July 22, 2020, the Atlantic hurricane season has spawned seven tropical depressions all of which organized further into tropical storms, many of which set new record for earliest formation ever in the basin.

On July 9, Fay unseated another entry in a long list of 2005 tropical storms that held early-season records. The prior earliest sixth-named storm in recorded history was Franklin which brewed during the record-breaking 2005 Atlantic hurricane season, the same season which churned out Hurricane Katrina in late August. Franklin formed on July 21, near the central Bahamas, and traveled northeastward, well to the east of the U.S. coast. The storm did not reach hurricane strength.

On July 5, Edouard became the earliest fifth-named tropical storm in any Atlantic hurricane season since the satellite era of the 1960s. Edouard beat out Emily, which formed on July 12 and went on to become a Category 5 hurricane in the Caribbean Sea in 2005, by a week.

Cristobal became the earliest "C" named storm in recorded history for the Atlantic on June 2, a feat that typically does not occur until around the middle of August. The storm went on to crash ashore along the Gulf coast, where it unleashed flooding rains. Dolly was the second-earliest "D" named storm ever in the basin, but it moved out to sea without impacting land.

Arthur and Bertha, as well as Dolly, formed in the same near-coast waters of the eastern U.S. this season. Both Arthur and Bertha formed in May, prior to the officials start of hurricane season on June 1.

The 2005 hurricane season holds the earliest dates for tropical storms through the letter "K" when Katrina formed on Aug. 24. Gert formed on July 24, 2005, followed by Harvey on Aug. 3. The name Harvey would eventually be retired after the 2017 season when a different Harvey brought devastating flooding to Texas. Now that Gonzalo has taken the record away from Gert by forming two days earlier, the "H" storm is now on the bubble for the record to potentially be broken.

Despite there being already seven tropical storms so far in 2020 over the Atlantic basin, there have not yet been any hurricanes. However, the average date for the first hurricane of the season is not until Aug.10.

AccuWeather is projecting the busy nature of the season to continue with up to 20 named tropical storms, seven to 11 hurricanes and four to six major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher). Six tropical storms are already in the books for the season, with three U.S. landfalls. The heart of the hurricane season does not occur until the middle of September.

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