Russia Accidentally Bombed Belgorod, a City in ... Russia

Russia’s Aerospace Forces, the VKS, have rained daily destruction on Ukrainian cities since Putin unleashed his invasion in 2022. Large unguided bombs, supersonic weapons designed to kill aircraft carriers, and hypersonic glide vehicles intended to befuddle NATO air defenses have been lobbed at densely populated metropolises including Kyiv, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Odesa.

But at 10:15 pm local time on Thursday, April 20, the mayhem landed on the wrong side of the border, following what Russia’s defense ministry characterized as an “emergency release of air ordnance” from an Su-34 fighter bomber overflying Belgorod—a city of 370,000 only a 17-mile drive away from the Ukrainian border, and 35 miles northeast of Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second largest city.

Traffic cameras captured both the impact and detonation of the weapon, which is likely a bomb. Initially, it is seen penetrating into the ground, causing a small puff of debris on the side of the road. Traffic continues to roll by unperturbed.

But 18 seconds later, the weapon detonates, causing the ground underneath to bubble up, rupturing the surrounding concrete in a ball of fire and debris. A white car parked close to the point of impact spins high into the air before landing onto the roof of a nearby store. Several other nearby vehicles are destroyed as well. The explosion left a 40-meter diameter (131 feet) crater in the traffic intersection.

Fortunately, there were no deaths, though two women were injured. The detonation beneath the ground absorbed and channeled the blast’s force, reducing lethal shrapnel directed at vehicles driving relatively close by. Of course, there was damage to nearby buildings, windows and powerlines were ruptured, and vehicles were destroyed. The briefly airborne car was eventually removed with a crane.

It’s possible the weapon was a BetAB concrete-penetrating bomb, which comes in 150-, 250-, and 500-kilogram variants. This narrow-diameter weapon has a delayed impact fuse and rocket booster, and is designed for penetrating strikes on underground facilities and cratering airbase runways. Russia employed these weapons on the Syrian city of Aleppo in 2016.

That said, a fuse on a different kind of munition might also produce the delayed underground blast. Russian commentators speculated that the weapon may have been one of Russia’s new satellite-guided UMPK glide bombs (an upgrade kit for unguided bombs). These winged weapons can be released from a standoff distance, which could encompass an area over or near Russian soil.

Because the UMPK kits were rushed into operational use this year and remain somewhat crude and unperfected, its speculated that an error in their release or guidance systems could have caused the Belgorod blast.

While Moscow will investigate the Belgorod mis-bombing, sources close to the government already indicate that the results likely won’t be made public.

The Fullback Versus Kharkiv

Russian warplanes routinely fly over Belgorod on their way to participate in combat operations over Ukraine—including the especially relentless bombardment of Kharkiv early in the war, which occurred alongside Russian artillery fires. The image below is of a collection point for expended munition, and gives an idea of the vast quantities of death-dealing devices expended on that city alone.

However, Russian commentators initially thought this blast to be a Ukrainian attack. Kyiv’s forces have sporadically struck targets near Belgorod on a limited scale since Putin invaded, using artillery, drones, and—on one memorable occasion—Hind attack helicopters for a raid on a fuel storage facility. Russian air defense missiles have also misfired and struck Belgorod.

A Russian TV commentator later seemed perplexed while reading a statement seemingly implying that the Belgorod bombing was an operation aimed at “extremists” at “minimal distance.”

The Su-34—codenamed Fullback by NATO, and dubbed the Platypus or Hellduck for its flattened nose—is an enlarged spinoff of Russia’s family of Flanker heavy fighters with side-by-side seating for pilot and weapon system’s officer. It’s noted for both its heavy maximum payload (consisting of over 15 tons of weapons and stores) and its integrated Platan laser-targeting system, the latter of which gives the jet better precision ground-attack capability than most Russian combat aircraft.

However, the VKS’s Su-34 fleet has suffered heavily, with at least 17 confirmed lost in combat (several over Kharkiv) and two more in accidents, for total attrition between 10 and 20%.

Notably in October 2022, an Su-34 on a training flight smashed into the Russian coastal resort town of Yeysk, killing fifteen people. Both crew ejected before impact.

The wording of the Russian military’s statement today seemingly implies a deliberate decision to release the weapons over Belgorod due to a risk to the aircraft. However, it has also been described as “an abnormal descent of aviation ammunition,” which might mean the weapon was released from the aircraft without the pilot’s intent. Either scenario is at least less embarrassing than if a pilot or guided bomb mistakenly attacked the wrong city on the way to hit a target in Ukraine.

If Russia’s claim can be taken at face value, the underlying culprit may be a flaw with the munitions or bomb racks, as discussed above. It may also come down to the maintainers and armorers supporting the Su-34 fleet, who are likely overworked by the pace of operations.

Notably, a recent intelligence leak suggested that the pilot of a relatively old Russian Su-27 fighter misinterpreted orders and intentionally fired a missile at a vulnerable British RC-135W surveillance plane (not accidentally fired it in its “vicinity” as originally claimed). However, the beyond-visual range missile misfired, fortunately averting the possible death of the RC-135’s crew and a major international incident.

No air force can entirely avoid military aviation accidents that pose threats to civilians, though that risk multiplies considerably in wartime with the increased tempo of operations and carriage of lethal munitions.

Of course, it’s awful for anyone whose life is put at risk, or has their car or home ruined by such mishaps. On Thursday, Russia’s air force appeared to have accidentally inflicted on the people of Belgorod a tiny fraction of the harm it has been doling out to Ukrainian communities on a daily basis for over a year, with paltry military results to show for it.

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