Licking County unemployment jumped to 4% in March; other indicators show growing economy
NEWARK − Insulated. It’s a word local leaders often use when describing the Licking County economy, protected from many of the negative factors in the rest of the country.
Usually it’s clarified to make it clear the insulation is only partial. State, national and international economic factors certainly affect places like Newark, Heath, Granville, Hebron, Pataskala, Etna, Johnstown or New Albany.
But Licking County is part of central Ohio, which may mean more now than ever, with Intel building a $28 billion computer chip manufacturing facility just south of Johnstown and many of its suppliers moving here or looking at the region.
Licking County's unemployment rate jumped in March to 4%, which remains historically low, but the highest since August 2021. It was 3.4% a year ago.
Sarah Wallace, chairwoman of the First Federal Savings board for 26 years and of the Evans Foundation for 44 years, said unemployment usually rises early in the year due to the departure of seasonal holiday workers.
“When you look long term, we’re in a really good place,” Wallace said. “Inflation ticked up, which causes concern. I’m hearing there might be a tick down soon.
“I do believe we are a bit insulated just because we’re in such a fast-growing area in central Ohio. It gives us a good deal of security.”
Other economic indicators show a more positive picture. New car sales were up almost 15% in the first quarter compared to a year ago. Home sales increased 8% versus 2023. County sales tax collections were up 5.6% and hit $5.2 million in March, the most in any month in county history.
“Those are important things, a reflection of what’s happening in central Ohio,” Wallace said. “Local officials are extremely busy meeting with developers.”
Alexis Fitzsimmons, executive director of Grow Licking County community improvement corporation, said the county benefits from being close to Columbus.
“Our market is a little insulated from that (recession threat)," Fitzsimmons said. "Close to the seat of government, close to a large population center with quick access to a lot of employment opportunities outside of our county.
“I feel like we take our success in the Columbus region for granted. Other areas not seeing the same level of growth. Our location and accessibility and investment in our region helps prevent us from being in the threat of having a recession.”
Goodyear Tire research facility closure in Hebron 'not characteristic of the big picture'
A local manufacturer in Hebron is closing its doors. The Goodyear Tire research facility, a tenant of Southgate Corp. in the Newark Industrial Park, will follow the path of many Goodyear plants across the country.
"The decision came at a very high corporate level," Southgate President Robert O'Neill said. "The Hebron location got caught up in a much bigger picture. They are closing plants in a lot of places. They are considering repurposing the building to another use."
The Goodyear closing is the exception to what is happening across Licking County, O'Neill said. In the past two years, Southgate has expanded two buildings, added a tenant and have all its buildings occupied.
“The businesses I’m talking to are all doing well," O'Neill said. "I think there’s growth. Goodyear is not characteristic of the big picture of our local economy.”
O'Neill said Behr Paint Corp. will open soon in Heath, where Prudential Cleanroom Services also will open in about 10 months. When the companies announced their respective new locations in Heath two years ago, Behr said it would employ 90 workers and Prudential about 80.
While the region's unemployment has increased, so has its workforce
A look at the state's unemployment map shows the central Ohio strength. The unemployment rate for Franklin County and its six adjacent counties averaged 3.9% in March. The statewide average was 4.5%, and the average for seven counties immediately to the east — Muskingum, Coshocton, Perry, Morgan, Guernsey, Noble and Tuscarawas — was 5.7%.
Although the employment rate increased, the overall employment picture may be positive. The county's workforce increased to 93,283, or 883 more than a year ago. So, employment and unemployment both increased as more people are looking for work.
“There are people on the sidelines and coming back into the workforce," said Brad Zellar, vice president at Park National Bank. "With all the (COVID) stimulus money, there wasn’t a great incentive for people to work. But there were plenty of jobs."
Licking County Chamber of Commerce President Jennifer McDonald said she was surprised unemployment jumped to 4% but also saw a positive side.
“In our manufacturing council, they say talent is the No. 1 concern,” McDonald said. “Attracting a workforce. It might be good news for business because a lot are saying they’re having a hard time attracting employees.
"Everything I’ve heard from business is things are going well. The price of doing business is up, but people are still spending money.”
Heath-Newark-Licking County Port Authority President and CEO Rick Platt said employment growth at the Central Ohio Aerospace and Technology Center campus has slowed.
“Over the last four years, we’ve added 600 net jobs, but only 20 in the last year," Platt said, citing an annual survey. "There’s definitely a slowing that’s been happening for some time.”
Of the 20 employers who participated in the survey, seven reported employment increases, Platt said, but 12 reported decreases — and seven of the 12 were down double-digits.
The 10-county Columbus Metropolitan Statistical Area lost 1,000 manufacturing jobs in the last year, according to the Ohio Department of Job & Family Services.
Despite growth, quarterly GDP lower than expected, delinquencies skyrocket
Many experts have predicted a recession for the past couple years, but such a downturn never materialized.
Zellar said he thought a year ago a recession was likely and now admits he was surprised it didn't happen.
“A year ago, if you polled economists, 63% predicted a recession in a year,” Zellar said. “Today, lower than 30% predict a recession in a year.”
But, Zellar said, there are some troubling signs. First-quarter gross domestic product was below expectations. Credit card balances, low a few years ago, have exploded beyond pre-pandemic levels. Inflation, which had been coming down, ticked up again. And, the 30-day and 90-day delinquencies started to skyrocket.
“Inflation — it’s creating uncertainty,” Zellar said. “Prices aren’t going down, just growing at a slower pace. It’s not deflation, just a slower pace of inflation. A big segment of the population is really feeling stretched.”
USA TODAY reported a key inflation measure — personal consumption expenditures — rose sharply in March, dampening hopes the Federal Reserve will soon cut interest rates.
“The Fed has been messing with interest rates purposefully to slow down the economy," Platt said.
“We are very much a manufacturing-driven economy. Manufacturing (employment) was down February to March in Ohio. Segments of the industry did have a recession. Some are impacted by the economy and some not.”
Licking County Auditor Mike Smith said sales tax statistics are delayed about three months, so the record March collections reflect a strong holiday season.
Still, Smith said, he does not see significant the danger signs that usually precede an economic downturn.
“I haven’t heard any major concerns," Smith said. “If townships or schools are saying revenue is down and they're concerned … but I don’t hear that in dealing with townships, villages, cities and schools. So, it seems like a lot of that revenue is continuing to move along like it has.”
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This article originally appeared on Newark Advocate: Unemployment hits 4%; county sales tax collections, car sales increase
