What are Lexington’s chances of slush and snow Saturday? Check out the latest forecast

Tropical Storm Nicole dumped rain on Lexington Friday morning, offering welcome relief from moderate drought conditions that have caused wildfires to spring up across the state – but there’s a chance for snow this weekend.

That’s according to forecasts from the National Weather Service and local meteorologist Chris Bailey, with the Herald-Leader’s reporting partner WKYT.

But how much snow could we see in Fayette County, if at all, this weekend? Will any of it stick around long enough to accumulate? Here’s what to know if you plan to spend any time outdoors this weekend.

Tropical Storm Nicole to bring much needed rain

Tropical Storm Nicole made landfall on Florida’s Atlantic Coast early Thursday. The Category 1 storm sent beachfront homes toppling into the ocean and killed at least two people before it weakened and was downgraded into a tropical storm, according to local news reports.

For Lexington and much of Eastern Kentucky, the storm means a lot of rain. Between 1 to 3 inches are expected to pour over the central and eastern swaths of the state, according to Bailey.

“Bands of heavy rain are spinning across central and eastern Kentucky, and there’s the chance for a little thunder to show up. These bands of rain are bringing beneficial rainfall to the region with a general 1 - 2 inches of rain with local 3 inches amounts a possibility,” Bailey wrote in his forecast Friday.

In its own forecast, the NWS in Louisville called for possible thunderstorms before 4 p.m. in Lexington Friday, followed by more rain. The storms could bring heavy rainfall rapidly, the forecast warned.

It will likely be welcomed in Eastern Kentucky. Thursday, Gov. Andy Beshear said a spate of dry conditions had led to the outbreak of 52 active fires across 28 counties.

Up to 32 fires were still burning, but were contained, when Beshear announced the news at his regular weekly news conference. Among them was a wildfire that had burned nearly 1,000 acres in Estill County, Beshear said.

Will Lexington see snow this weekend?

The setup for snow this weekend arrives later Friday when a cold front rolls in from the west, Bailey noted in his forecast Friday.

“That blast of wintertime arrives later tonight in the form of a cold front working in from the west. This front will also have a quick-moving wave of low pressure developing along the front. That leads to rain and snow developing from southwest to northeast late tonight and early Saturday,” Bailey wrote Friday. “This is a quick-hitting rain and light snow maker, but there’s enough moisture to put down some light snow accumulations for some, and this would mainly happen on grassy and elevated surfaces.”

Lexington happens to be right in the sweet spot for the best chance of slushy snow accumulations of up to 1 inch.

The NWS has a similar outlook for snow Saturday. Rain showers will be likely before 10 a.m. Saturday, with more rain and snow showers likely between 10 a.m. and 1 p.m. That’s followed by a slight chance of more rain showers Saturday afternoon.

Overall, the chance of precipitation is at 60% Saturday, according to the NWS, with new snow accumulation of less than half an inch possible.

More snow expected Tuesday?

According to Bailey, the possibility of snow returns to the forecast again Tuesday.

“The models all have this system, but treat the track and intensity a little differently,” Bailey wrote in his Friday forecast.

The NWS also calls for possible snowfall, forecasting a 20% chance after 1 a.m. Tuesday.

There’s a better chance as the day goes on, with rain, snow and freezing rain possible before 1 p.m. Tuesday. The overall chance of precipitation is at 40%. Tuesday.

Kentuckians can expect more extreme weather events, and forecasting them may get trickier

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