When will the leaves in Kansas be at peak fall color? Here’s the 2023 foliage outlook

With the temperatures dropping, it’s finally starting to feel a little like fall in Wichita. Even though the official first day of autumn was Sept. 23, leaves across Kansas have just begun their transition to the bright hues of fall.

Though there are many foliage predictions for the U.S., Ryan Rastok, forest health program director with the Kansas Forest Service, told The Eagle predicting when leaves change is a complicated process.

“It’s hard to give an exact prediction of how intense the fall colors will be and or when [it] will happen because there are a number of factors involved with that,” Rastok said. “One of which is the temperature, you know, just over the season ... we get these osculating lows and highs. And there’s also a function of the daylight, as we’re getting shorter periods of light, that can sort of trigger ... when [trees are] starting to go into dormancy and change their pigmentation.”

According to Great Smoky Mountains National Park’s annual fall foliage prediction map, which uses data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, almost half of Kansas is experiencing “patchy” foliage as of Wednesday, while the other half, including the south-central region, is experiencing “minimal” change.

By Oct. 23, the whole state is predicted to be experiencing either “patchy” foliage or “partial” leaf change. It’s not until Nov. 20 the whole state is predicted to be “past peak” fall colors. South-central Kansas is expected to hit peak fall color by Nov. 13.

Rastok said, in general, trees usually are bare by Thanksgiving Day in Kansas, which means leaves would start to change color in mid-October through early to mid-November.

Precipitation is a big factor in fall foliage, and some parts of Kansas have experienced months of drought.

Matthew McKernan, horticultural agent for the Sedgwick County Extension Office, said Wednesday drought can affect when the leaves start turning and how vibrant those colors are.

“When we do have some drought in the summer months, it usually helps intensify our fall colors in the fall. That being said, it is possible to get too dry and have the leaves burn up or scorch before the fall months,” McKernan said.

This year, McKernan said it’s hard to tell, but it’s looking like the colors might be less intense.

“A lot of our fall colors will probably be influenced by the warmer temperatures and the lack of rain fall ... it’s probably diminishing our fall colors,” the extension representative said. “As we continue into fall, we still should be able to see fall color, but maybe not quite as vibrant or as intense as we’ve had in some years.”

Once the leaves do turn, there are multiple factors that contribute to when trees will begin to drop their foliage.

“That’s dependent on the temperature and the intensity of the wind and stuff like that,” said Rastok, the state forest service agent.

What trees in Kansas offer the best fall color?

While temperatures and precipitation have a large impact on when the leaves change, the reason a tree might change color later or never could have to do with its variety.

“There are some species that will remain green much, much later into the season,” Rastok said, “and oftentimes those are exotic plants that have been introduced and or invasive.”

Rastok used the example of bush honeysuckle, which is an invasive plant common in Kansas that remains green well past Thanksgiving.

So, what trees in your backyard could have the most vibrant colors this fall? Rastok said maple trees are known to change to vibrant color in fall.

“Some of your red maples, some sugar maples will have very robust fall colors,” Rastok said. “Now that’s not to say, ‘go and plant a whole bunch of maples,’ we have tons of maples that are planted but those will have, you know, very robust fall color in some seasons.”

Rastok said red oaks can also have great color, but that depends on the season.

“It seems to be kind of a hit or miss,” Rastok said.

Black walnut trees will change, but tend to lose their leaves earlier in the season compared to other kinds of trees.

“They will get a really interesting kind of yellow color,” Rastok said.

Why do leaves change color in the fall?

Chlorophyll is the pigment in leaves that produces the green color they showcase much of the year. When the leaves are growing, chlorophyll is constantly being broken down and produced, which continually keeps the leaves green.

However, when autumn approaches and there’s less sunlight and cooler temperatures, chlorophyll production slowly stops. Once all the chlorophyll is destroyed, only carotenoids and anthocyanin remain in the leaves, which give the colors the fall colors, according to the U.S. Forest Service.