At least 12 named storms are expected this hurricane season. Here’s the NC outlook

Kimberly Cataudella
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

The Atlantic region’s hurricane season this year is forecasted to be near-normal.

Here’s what meteorologists predict with 70% confidence, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced Thursday:

  • The Atlantic region can expect 12 to 17 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher).

  • Of those, five to nine could become hurricanes (winds 74 mph or higher).

  • One to four could be major hurricanes (categories 3, 4 or 5 with winds 111 mph or higher).

NOAA predicts a 40% chance of a near-normal season, a 30% chance of an above-normal season and a 30% chance of a below-normal season. Hurricane season begins June 1 and ends Nov. 30.

Find the full report at noaa.gov.

These figures do not include regional outlooks, and no additional information has been provided about where the storms could be or if they might make landfall, said Michael Farrar, National Centers for Environmental Prediction director, at a press conference Thursday.

This number reflects the total number of predicted storms in the Atlantic region for the upcoming hurricane season.

The News & Observer spoke with Barrett Smith, a senior service hydrologist at Raleigh’s National Weather Service, to learn more about what these predictions mean for us in the Triangle.

2023 hurricane season in North Carolina

The upcoming Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be less active than recent years, NOAA said in their press release.

Some environmental factors suppress storm development, and others fuel it. The combination of both are driving this year’s overall forecast for a near-normal season.

“Investments in technology and prediction systems have helped improve track forecasts tremendously in the past two decades. The National Hurricane Center track forecast error has been cut in half, even out to five days,” Smith said.

When climate pattern El Niño develops, which Smith said will happen in the next one to two months, meteorologists will know more about how it will impact the hurricane season.

“El Niño hasn’t developed yet, so the level of hurricane activity is still contingent on the presence and strength of El Nino,” Smith said.

“Once that happens, it takes a little bit of time to influence weather patterns, and the influence is dependent upon when it develops and how strong it is.”

The NOAA Climate Office put out an El Niño watch earlier this spring.

What does El Niño mean?

El Niño (which means “little boy” in Spanish) is a climate pattern that can suppress the development of hurricanes. This is why this year’s hurricane season is near-normal.

Learn more about El Niño at oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/ninonina.html.

Last year’s hurricane season (2022)

The previous three hurricane seasons had La Niña (translating to “little girl”) present. Climate experts predicted an above-normal hurricane season last year, as La Niña can lead to a more severe season.

Here’s what last year’s hurricane season looked like, compared to the average season:

▪ 2022: There were 14 named storms in the Atlantic region, including eight hurricanes and two major hurricanes — Fiona and Ian.

Hurricane Fiona was a Category 4 hurricane that lasted from Sept. 14 to 22 and made landfall in Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Grand Turk and Nova Scotia.

Hurricane Ian was a Category 4 hurricane that lasted from Sept. 23 to 30 and made landfall in southwestern Florida. It was a Category 3 hurricane in western Cuba and Category 1 in South Carolina.

NOAA’s 2022 forecast predicted 14 to 21 named storms, six to 10 hurricanes and three to six major hurricanes.

▪ Average: An average Atlantic hurricane season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes, per NOAA.

The first named storm typically forms in mid- to late-June, the first hurricane tends to form in early to mid-August, and the first major hurricane forms in late August or early September.

2023 Atlantic tropical cyclone names

Hurricanes are a type of storm, categorized under “tropical cyclones.”

The World Meteorological Organization selected the following 21 tropical cyclone names for the Atlantic hurricane season:

  • Arlene

  • Bret

  • Cindy

  • Don

  • Emily

  • Franklin

  • Gert

  • Harold

  • Idalia

  • Jose

  • Katia

  • Lee

  • Margot

  • Nigel

  • Ophelia

  • Philippe

  • Rina

  • Sean

  • Tammy

  • Vince

  • Whitney

How to prepare for hurricanes

While a near-normal hurricane season doesn’t sound alarming, Smith wants everyone to remember how important it is to prepare ahead of time.

“The annual outlook is great for awareness and some general expectation about the season, but everyone should prepare at the beginning of the season, especially depending on where they are,” he said.

Here are his main three suggestions:

1. Have an emergency kit prepared: You should have enough food, water and supplies for a full week (seven days) per person and pet.

Here are the items ReadyNC recommends:

  • Water - one gallon per person per day up to seven days

  • Food – non-perishable and canned food supply up to seven days

  • Battery-powered or hand crank radio and NOAA Weather Radio with extra batteries

  • Cell phone with charger

  • First aid kit and first aid book

  • Flashlight and extra batteries

  • Manual can opener for food

  • Wrench or pliers to turn off water

  • Blanket or sleeping bag – one per person

  • Prescription medications and glasses

  • Seasonal change of clothing, including sturdy shoes

  • Toothbrush, toothpaste, soap, feminine supplies

  • Extra house and car keys

  • Important documents – insurance policies, copy of driver’s license, Social Security card, bank account records. It’s important to digitize these records so they are always handy.

  • Fire extinguisher

  • Cash and change

  • Books, games or cards

Find lists of unique needs, first aid supplies, pet supplies and more at readync.gov/plan-and-prepare/get-kit.

2. Find a reliable information source: Here’s what The N&O shared in a previous report about staying informed during extreme weather events:

Emergency messages are shared via TV, radio, NOAA weather radio and through internet and cell phone services.

  • Emergency Alert System (EAS) messages will be broadcast on TV and radio stations. Only a few designated agencies — the National Weather Service, N.C. Emergency Management and state Highway Patrol — can originate EAS messages in North Carolina, so you know they’re coming from important, trusted sources.

  • Wireless Emergency Alerts (WEA) come directly to cell phones and other mobile devices. These short messages look like text messages and are accompanied by a unique alert tone. There is no need to enroll in these alerts, but there are options to change these alerts in your phone’s notification settings. Leave them turned on in order to stay informed when emergencies happen. WEA messages are received if your phone is located in the warned area at the specific time of an emergency.

Many counties and local emergency management offices operate local alert systems. You must opt-in, or sign up, for these services to receive emergency messages from your local government. Visit ncdps.gov/ncem/localEM for links to alert services offered by local governments in North Carolina.

Read more at newsobserver.com/news/weather-news.

3. Plan an escape route, shelter: If you do need to evacuate, follow ReadyNC’s guide:

  • Listen to local media.

  • Fill your car with gasoline. Take only one vehicle to lower the amount of traffic.

  • Leave early enough to avoid being trapped by severe weather.

  • Plan where your family will meet and go. Tell family or friends of your plans.

  • If possible, stay with family or friends in a safe area. Next, try a motel or hotel. As a last resort, go to a shelter. Remember, shelters are not made for comfort and should be places of last resort.

  • Map out your path, using major roads. If local officials suggest certain evacuation routes, use those roads

  • Always take pets with you when evacuating.

  • Don’t forget emergency kits for your family and pets. Bring key family papers.

  • Bring extra cash. Banks may be closed, and cash tellers may not work.

  • Lock doors and windows before leaving your house. Unplug radios, toasters, televisions and small appliances. Be sure to turn off water, gas and power.

  • Ask neighbors if they need a ride.

Head to readync.gov/plan-and-prepare/evacuating for more information, including NC’s evacuation routes, evacuation zones, a list of items to take to a shelter and details about choosing to shelter in place.

“As we saw with Hurricane Ian, it only takes one hurricane to cause widespread devastation and upend lives. So regardless of the number of storms predicted this season, it is critical that everyone understand their risk and heed the warnings of state and local officials,” said FEMA administrator Deanne Criswell in a press release.

“Whether you live on the coast or further inland, hurricanes can cause serious impacts to everybody in their path.”

Triangle Asked & Answered: What do you want to know?

Have a question about something in our community? The News & Observer’s Service Journalism team wants your questions for our Triangle Asked & Answered series. Reach out to us by filling out this form or by sending an email to ask@newsobserver.com.

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