Was last year's US job growth all from part-time work? Why RFK Jr.’s claim is Half True

Louis Jacobson
Kennedy
Kennedy

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Statement: "The much-trumpeted job growth in the last year was ENTIRELY part-time jobs."

Have all of the country’s recent job gains come from increases in part-time positions? That’s what independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. said in a recent social media post.

On March 31 on X, Kennedy accused the federal government of distorting economic data. He added, "The much-trumpeted job growth in the last year was ENTIRELY part-time jobs."

But Kennedy’s jobs claim does not tell the whole story.

From February 2023 to February 2024, the most recent data available when Kennedy posted, the net increase in part-time jobs exceeded the net increase in total jobs. However, such numbers can shift wildly month to month, and experts say focusing on just one time period is cherry-picking. During Joe Biden’s presidency, part-time jobs have accounted for only about a quarter of all job gains.

Kennedy’s office did not respond to an inquiry for this article. Kennedy’s campaign of conspiracy theories was PolitiFact's 2023 Lie of the Year.

Economists warn against focusing on data for one particular time period

The federal government uses two different surveys to measure employment.

One queries businesses. Because it has a larger sample size, economists tend to trust it for measuring total employment.

The other survey examines households. It has a smaller sample size, meaning that the results tend to whipsaw from month to month. Therefore, economists pay less attention to the household survey when measuring overall employment.

Nevertheless, the household survey is the only one to gauge whether and why Americans are working full time or part time. So, for an apples-to-apples comparison, we’ll use the total employment figure from the household survey.

From February 2023 to February 2024, total U.S. employment rose by 667,000 while part-time employment rose by 921,000. So over that specific yearlong period, part-time employment rose by more than overall employment did. (In this case, part-time jobs rose faster than jobs overall because these are net figures; in any given month, some jobs are lost while others are created.)

But economists say it’s problematic to focus on just one period.

Shifting the yearlong time span to January 2023 to January 2024 counters Kennedy’s claim. During this period, overall employment rose by 1 million while part-time employment rose by 559,000.

Kennedy also ignores the trends throughout Biden’s full tenure.

From February 2021, Biden’s first full month in office, to February 2024, overall employment rose by 10.8 million, while part-time employment rose by a little less than 2.9 million.

That means that during Biden’s presidency, the part-time job increase has accounted for about one-quarter of overall job growth — not all of it.

Part-time employment doesn’t necessarily reflect badly on the economy

It’s also not clear that the increase in part-time jobs is a bad thing, for workers or the economy.

Federal data distinguishes between people working part time for economic reasons and people working part time for noneconomic reasons. Economists see increases in the first group as more worrisome, because these people want a full-time job but were forced to take a part-time job because it’s all they could find.

By contrast, many people in the second group are working part time by choice. In many cases, these are students, parents of young children, retirees or people who want a less stressful lifestyle.

"In my research, we consistently find that the voluntary part-time workers report higher health, happiness with work and satisfaction with work schedules than both full-time workers and people working part time for economic reasons," said Lonnie Golden, a Penn State University economist.

So even if a large share of new jobs are part-time, "that's a good thing," Golden said.

The number of new part-time jobs taken out of economic necessity is a distinct minority. Since 2021’s second half, part-time jobs for economic reasons have accounted for fewer than 1 in 6 part-time jobs.

Also, part-time jobs taken for economic reasons as a percentage of all jobs haven’t been higher than 3% since mid-2021, and they are near a record low going back to the 1950s.

PolitiFact's ruling

Kennedy said, "The much-trumpeted job growth in the last year was ENTIRELY part-time jobs."

That’s the case for one specific yearlong period, from February 2023 to February 2024. However, economists warn that this metric whipsaws, and in this case, shifting the time span by just one month inverts the finding. During Biden’s presidency, overall employment has risen almost four times faster than part-time employment has.

The statement is partially accurate but ignores important information, so we rate it Half True.

Our sources

This article originally appeared on Austin American-Statesman: PolitiFact: Was last year's US job growth all from part-time work?

Advertisement