Lady Vols basketball projected to miss March Madness in Kim Caldwell's first season. I can see why | Adams

The NCAA Tournament overshadows everything else in college basketball, which helps explain why it’s never too early for “bracketologists” to do what bracketologists do: Project the next tournament bracket.

ESPN bracketologist Charlie Creme just did that for the women’s 2025 NCAA Tournament.

Many SEC fans will be encouraged by his predictions. Lady Vols fans won’t be among them.

Crème has 11 SEC teams qualifying for the tournament. But Tennessee will be on the outside looking in.

He projects the Lady Vols as the first team out. If he’s right, that would be historic since the Lady Vols have never failed to make the NCAA Tournament.

Despite UT’s longstanding track record, Creme's analysis isn’t farfetched, even though it comes just a few weeks after Tennessee athletic director Danny White hired new coach Kim Caldwell, and both spoke glowingly about championship aspirations.

Creme’s categorization of the Lady Vols as a tournament outsider shouldn’t dull those aspirations. It’s merely an indication of where the program is now, rather than where it’s headed since Caldwell replaced Kellie Harper, who was fired after five seasons.

In fact, the Lady Vols could drop further before they begin a postseason climb that might extend beyond the Sweet 16, which is as far as Harper could take them.

That’s not an assessment of Caldwell’s coaching. It’s just a realistic view of the current state of Lady Vols basketball, particularly in relation to the rest of their conference competition.

SEC women’s basketball should be stronger than ever next season. That’s reflected in Creme’s projections as well as what has happened since South Carolina won the 2023-24 national championship.

The Gamecocks again will be loaded with talented, experienced players, which means they will be a consensus No. 1 pick for next season. In Texas’ first SEC season, it also looks like a national championship contender. And LSU, which won the 2022-23 championship, could make another Final Four run.

Texas and LSU both have added firepower in the transfer portal to bolster already-talented rosters. Texas signed All-Big Ten guard Laila Phelia from Michigan State, and LSU addressed a lack of depth and inconsistent backcourt play by added three transfers guards.

Oklahoma, another SEC rookie, boosted its roster by signing two-time All-Pac-12 post player Raegan Beers. Even without Beers, the Sooners would have had enough returning talent and experience to rank in the top half of the expanded SEC.

But the conference won’t just be strong at the top. Creme believes Ole Miss, Auburn, Mississippi State, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Texas A&M, and Alabama also are NCAA Tournament-worthy.

Not Tennessee, though. And that’s understandable.

First, Caldwell must rebuild a depleted roster that will dearly miss first-round WNBA draft pick Rickea Jackson. Then, she must implement her up-tempo, 3-point-shooting offense that also will feature a full-court pressing defense, which served her so well last season at Marshall.

She had added two players from the transfer portal, which should help. However, other SEC teams have improved themselves even more via the portal.

ADAMS: I thought Tennessee Lady Vols basketball hiring Kim Caldwell was a joke. Why it just might work

As a new coach, Caldwell couldn’t just focus on the portal. She had to assemble a staff and solidify what remained from UT’s last roster. All of that can make for a difficult transition.

Creme's projected NCAA Tournament bracket reminded us just how challenging the transition could be.

John Adams is a senior columnist. He may be reached at 865-342-6284 or john.adams@knoxnews.com. Follow him at: twitter.com/johnadamskns.

This article originally appeared on Knoxville News Sentinel: Kim Caldwell, Lady Vols basketball projected to miss March Madness