Why Scotland is so important for Labour to avoid a hung parliament

Labour’s by-election victory in Rutherglen is a “remarkably good” result that puts Sir Keir Starmer’s party on course to be the “dominant” force in Scotland again, said polling guru Prof John Curtice.

The elections expert said the 20 per cent swing from the SNP to Labour was “well above the kinds of swings we’ve seen in the opinion polls in Scotland”.

So what does it mean for the 2024 general election? Labour had been hoping to win 15 to 20 seats in Scotland in a bid to boost its chances of avoiding a hung parliament and winning an outright majority.

Prof Curtice said a 10-point swing would have kept Labour happy and think “job done” – but the 20-point swing in Rutherglen means they are entitled to believe they can win more than 20 seats from the SNP.

He told BBC Scotland: “That means the Labour vote in the constituency is almost as high as it was in 2010 before the tsunami that swept the Labour party from virtually every constituency in Scotland.”

He added: “If this kind of swing were to be replicated across Scotland as a whole you’d be talking about the Labour Party quite clearly being the dominant party north of the border.”

Despite the huge byelection victory, Labour still has a big task ahead to become the biggest force north of the border once again. The SNP has 44 UK parliamentary seats in Scotland. Labour only has two.

Labour strategists are clear that there must a major turnaound in Scotland, or the party will struggle to win the 330 or so seats it needs to avoid a hung parliament and command a majority in the Commons.

Prof Curtice said he was “absolutely” surprised by the size of Labour’s victory – saying it signalled the party’s return to favour among its traditional voters in Scotland, many of whom deserted the party during the divisive Scottish independence campaign.

The elections expert noted it was almost as high as the 60 per cent Labour won in the constituency in 2010 before the independence campaign saw the party’s vote collapse.

Sir John told BBC’s Good Morning Scotland that wins on that scale historically “on course for victory in a general election” he said – adding that you “cannot ignore the direction of travel”.

The election expert said that if you extrapolated the by-election result for a general election it would see the Labour party win an astonishing 42 seats in Scotland and SNP left with just six MPs. But he played down the likelihood of the the Rutherglen contest being replicated across the board.

The party’s candidate Michael Shanks won over 17,000 votes, out of a total of 30,000 cast – a remarkable 58 per cent of votes cast. He secured more than twice the votes of his SNP rival Katy Loudon, which saw the collapse of the Scottish Conservative vote.

The result will pile more pressure on SNP leader and Scottish first minister Humza Yousaf – who has seen his party’s fortunes decline in the polls in the wake of the ongoing police investigation in SNP finances.

Sir Keir hailed that as a “seismic result” adding that voters in the constituency had “sent a clear message” that it is “time for change” across the nation. He said voters “want to move on from two SNP and Tory governments that offer only more division, more chaos and more infighting”.

Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar also said the result was “seismic” and added that “Scottish politics has fundamentally changed”. He added: “Scotland will lead the way in delivering a UK-wide Labour government”.

Scottish Tory candidate Thomas Kerr lost his deposit – winning just 1,192 votes. He said tactical voting “squeezed” Conservative votes since the party’s base wanted to “send a message” to the SNP.

SNP leader Humza Yousaf said the “collapse in the Tory vote, which went straight to Labour” was a significant factor, adding: “We lost this seat in 2017, and like 2019 we can win this seat back.”

The SNP’s deputy leader Keith Brown also said: “It’s Sir Keir Starmer’s pro-Brexit Labour party that benefitted from support from Tory voters.”

The by-election was called after a recall petition against Margaret Ferrier, who had won the seat for the SNP in 2019 with a majority of 5,230.

Ms Ferrier however had the SNP whip removed after breaching Covid rules in 2020, and after remaining as an independent MP was suspended from the House of Commons, resulting in the recall petition.