Labor Day shopping comes amid signs of stress at some large retailers

Labor Day weekend is here, and it's the biggest sale event of the season.

As summer comes to a close and the back-to-school season is in full swing, retailers are looking to draw in US consumers this Labor Day weekend with mega deals.

Some stores that are open on Monday include Target (TGT), with a "summer send-off sale," and Walmart (WMT), promising "extra-low prices."

Additionally, Kohl's (KSS) is giving $10 off $25 purchases and Lowe's (LOW) says it is offering the "best values of the season," while Home Depot (HD) is looking to move consumers into the next season with "Deals in fall must-haves."

Others remaining open during the holiday include Kroger (KR), Dollar Tree (DLTR), Dollar General (DG), Sam's Club (WMT), Ulta Beauty (ULTA), Walgreens (WBA), and more.

As far as deals go, one expert says consumers shouldn't expect heavy discounts like last year.

"We're not hearing of crazy discounting because inventory levels are in very good shape for a lot of the retailers," Telsey Advisory Group analyst Joe Feldman told Yahoo Finance Live. "We are hearing more 'normalized promotional levels.' Comparatively, it may not look that bad, even though it still will feel somewhat promotional."

Groceries are driving consumers' purchasing decisions this weekend

While featured deals vary from appliances to apparel to toys (with Walmart even offering a 10-foot kids' trampoline for a fraction of the cost), customers are looking to keep their purchases simple, starting with groceries at the top of the list.

A recent survey of 518 individuals from Numerator found that over two-thirds of respondents (69%) plan to visit a grocery store to purchase items for Labor Day.

This comes as the cost of food at home — what consumers see at their local supermarkets such as Kroger (KR), Albertsons (ACI), and others — increased slightly in July after remaining mostly flat in recent months.

Over a third of respondents plan to go to mass retailers like Walmart and Target too. Target seems to be playing into the grocery demand. At the top of its deal page, it features savings on its private-label ground beef and cans of Pepsi and Coca-Cola, among other barbecue fan favorites.

Other consumers may be bulking up ahead of back-to-school at Sam's Club or Costco (COST), though Costco will be closed on the actual holiday.

Overall, consumers aren't planning to do much Labor Day shopping online. Only 7% plan to go to online-only stores such as Amazon (AMZN) or eBay (EBAY) to shop this weekend.

Feldman also said consumers are known to shop around holiday events like Mother's Day and July Fourth weekend.

He even added: "Halloween is off to a good start." (Yes, its only the beginning of September, I know.)

Consumers face squeeze from gas prices, credit card debt

Meanwhile, in the background, the odds are stacked against consumers' wallets.

Higher gas prices are "still a pain point" for consumers with the national average gas price at $3.81 per gallon as of Friday, AAA Northeast senior managerRobert Sinclair Jr. told Yahoo Finance.

"I worry that with inflation cutting into the family budget, particularly for housing and food, that there isn't a lot left over for gasoline for ... non-essential travel," Sinclair said. "Demand so far this year is 0.9% less than a year ago when gasoline was much more expensive. ... That's very, very telling."

In addition to higher prices at the pump, consumers' wallets are pinched by the cost of groceries, higher mortgage rates, higher interest rates, a slowdown in the US job market, the looming return of student loan payments, and a rising rate of credit card delinquencies as Americans struggle to pay off credit card debt.

Retailers are feeling the pinch in return. Earlier this month, Kohl's (KSS) CFO Jill Timm said "payment rates [are] down, losses up" — a potential red flag that consumers are falling behind.

"Credit losses did increase over what was obviously a really low year last year," Timm added. "But as anticipated ... we did take early actions as we did anticipate the macroeconomic environment to worsen and people to have less cash in their bank account."

Investors heard a similar message from Macy's (M).

"While we have seen an increase in revenues as interest rates have risen, that has been more than offset by higher bad debt assumptions and write-offs," Macy's CFO Adrian Mitchell said on a call with investors. "These bad debt assumptions and write-offs are the result of rising delinquencies, which leads to higher net credit losses over time and contributes to increased bad debt within the portfolio."

Despite this noise, consumers continue to defy the odds.

"The consumer seems to be somewhat resilient," Feldman said, especially when it comes to the desire to have the next big thing. "The consumer is purchasing when they see newness, when they see innovation in the product."

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Brooke DiPalma is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on Twitter at @BrookeDiPalma or email her at bdipalma@yahoofinance.com.

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