KY governor’s race: Survey shows Beshear up big, but GOP-commissioned poll has Cameron closer

A poll conducted in late June shows Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear up by 10 percentage points over Republican challenger Attorney General Daniel Cameron.

But another poll done by the same group, GOP pollster Public Opinion Strategies, this week showed that lead shrinking to 4 percentage points. That more recent poll was commissioned by the national Republican State Leadership Committee.

The first poll, carried out by Public Opinion Strategies in late June and commissioned by the Prichard Committee for Academic Excellence, surveyed 800 registered Kentucky voters whose party affiliations aligned almost exactly with the Kentucky electorate – 46% Republican, 44% Democratic and 10% Independent. The respondents were asked who they would vote for, between Beshear and Cameron, if the election were held today.

Among those voters polled in late June, Beshear is up 52% to 42%, with the remaining 6% uncommitted.

Public Opinion Strategies, though it is considered to be GOP-aligned, is well-regarded for its polling work. Elections and data analysis website fivethirtyeight.com gives the firm a ‘B+’ rating. The poll was conducted June 22-29 and the margin of error is roughly +/- 4%.

The July poll, commissioned by the national GOP group RSLC, asked 500 “registered voters likely to vote in November” via landline and cell phone who they were planning to support. Of the respondents, 49% said they would vote for Beshear to 45% for Cameron, while 5% remained undecided. That poll was conducted July 19-20 and the margin of error is +/- 4.4%.

The RSLC is a group dedicated to supporting state GOP legislative caucuses across the country.

The timing of the poll results — conducted nearly a month apart — being released to the public was unusual.

The Prichard-commissioned June poll was not intended to be released to the public, per a spokesperson for the organization. But it was first referenced on social media on Wednesday and its full contents were released on Twitter Thursday night by a poll aggregator.

The group, a longtime Lexington-based education nonprofit, emphasized in a statement their nonpartisan nature and said that the poll was meant to “spark a meaningful conversation around advancing early childhood initiatives,” which the poll shows have wide support among voters.

“It was not our intent that this was shared with the public at this time, and the intended purpose of this crucial discussion has been overshadowed, rather than centering on what truly matters – ensuring a robust and nurturing foundation for the young generation of Kentuckians,” a spokesperson for the Prichard Committee said.

Robert Blizzard, a partner at Public Opinion Strategies, brushed off a question on whether or not the partisan affiliation of the group commissioning the survey had anything to do with the closer result documented this week.

“Love the conspiracy theory idea, but we were in field Wednesday-Thursday this week as planned to test the (Republican) ticket,” Blizzard said.

The group also polled races for attorney general, secretary of state and commissioner of agriculture — all showed Republicans with double-digit leads over Democrats.

D. Stephen Voss, a political science professor at the University of Kentucky, said that a big takeaway from both polls is that Beshear’s support remains strong despite less enthusiasm for other Democrats, including President Joe Biden whose favorability rating in Kentucky was clocked at 31/67 in the July poll.

“That big gap between how Cameron and Beshear look compared to those other three races — that’s a lot of voters being selective and expressing a willingness to split-ticket vote. We’re also seeing people saying they strongly dislike Joe Biden, and those same people are telling the pollster ‘I’m probably going to vote for Andy Beshear.’ It’s the same people giving those two very different answers,” Voss said.

As for the governor’s race, Voss pointed out that the difference between the Beshear +10 and the +4 results is within the margin of error.

“This sort of bounce would be quite likely even if nothing at all changed over the past few weeks. The difference between the two polls is statistically insignificant,” he said. “You can’t say with confidence that anything at all changed since late June.”

Neither governor’s race poll result released full cross-tabulation data from the poll.

In response to the poll, Beshear campaign spokesperson Alex Floyd poked at the change in poll results from when Cameron released an internal poll in May showing him down just 2 percentage points to Beshear.

“Since then he has done nothing but launch false attacks and fan the flames of the culture wars while Andy Beshear has focused on the roaring economy and record low unemployment. Now, even Cameron’s own allies admit Beshear’s lead has expanded since the race began because Kentuckians are rejecting Cameron’s division and false attacks.”

Cameron campaign spokesperson Sean Southard indicated that messaging on crime, the economy, education and values — including a reference to transgender issues and Beshear’s veto of a ban on trans girls from girls sports — would eventually push Cameron to win on Election Day.

“We feel confident that as voters learn more about Andy Beshear’s liberal record, they will see Daniel Cameron as a better alternative to lead Kentucky in a new direction,” Southard said.

The first poll

Commissioned by the Prichard Committee for Academic Excellence, the poll result from late June documenting the ‘horse race’ between Cameron and Beshear was just one of many yielded from extensive surveying.

Other questions asked by Public Opinion Strategies show Kentucky voters overwhelmingly support improving access to and increasing quality of childcare and education.

It also linked that support for such issues to the governor’s race by asking respondents if they knowing that a governor “supported increasing access to an affordable, high-quality childcare program” would make them more likely to vote for them. A strong majority of respondents said it would make them more likely to support a candidate – 64% to 10% who said it would make them less likely to support.

Previously released polls measuring support in the race include one released by the Cameron campaign showing a “dead heat,” with Beshear up on Cameron 45% to 43% in mid-May just after the primary. A January poll from Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy had Beshear leading Cameron 49% to 40% in a hypothetical matchup.

Beshear’s approval was also tested in the late June poll, showing that 63% of the voters approved of the governor’s job performance compared to 35% who disapproved.

Beshear also had more cross-party appeal than Cameron, and was leading among Independents, in the June poll. It found 15% of registered Republicans and 23% of Trump supporters said they would vote for Beshear, while only 5% of Democrats and 2% of Biden supporters said they would vote for Cameron.

The second poll

The RSLC-commissioned poll also asked 500 voters deemed likely to vote who they would support in most down-ticket races, where Republicans lead their Democratic competition but a large number of voters are still undecided.

Voters surveyed preferred GOP attorney general candidate Russell Coleman to Democratic candidate Rep. Pamela Stevenson, D-Louisville, 41% to 27% with 31% still undecided.

GOP Secretary of State Michael Adams held a 24-point lead over Democratic candidate Buddy Wheatley, 48% to 24% with 26% undecided.

Republican nominee for commissioner of agriculture Jonathan Shell was leading Democratic nominee Sierra Enlow 45% to 27% with 27% undecided per the poll.

In explaining the difference between Beshear’s result in the July poll, Blizzard suggested that the governor’s race could be getting closer due to “some Republicans coming home,” and Cameron’s name being in the press recently due to his announcement that Sen. Robby Mills, R-Henderson, has joined the ticket.