Can KU basketball get right against West Virginia? Preview, prediction, odds

March has arrived and along with it brings the most important time of Kansas’ season: postseason play. The No. 1-seeded Kansas men’s basketball team will play No. 8 West Virginia in the Big 12 Tournament quarterfinal round on Thursday at T-Mobile Center.

The two teams last met in February, with the Jayhawks beating the Mountaineers 76-74 in Allen Fieldhouse. KU swept the season series.

No. 8 WVU comes off a 78-62 win over No. 9 Texas Tech on Wednesday.

Below is a scouting report and prediction of the game.

Thursday’s game: No. 1 Kansas vs. No. 8 West Virginia

When/where: 2 p.m., T-Mobile Center

TV/Streaming: ESPN

Opponent’s record: 19-13, 11-6 Big 12

KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 17

All statistics are from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and EvanMiya. KenPom stats only include Division I competition.

West Virginia Team Strengths

• Offensively minded: West Virginia ranks 15th in adjusted offensive efficiency (117.6). Adjusted offensive efficiency measures a team’s points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent.

• Glass cleaners: WVU ranks 27th in offensive rebounding rate (33.8%) and averages 11.1 offensive rebounds per game.

• Foul drawers: The Mountaineers are great at drawing fouls They rank 15th in free throw rate (40.8%).

West Virginia Weaknesses

• Limited from deep: West Virginia ranks 220th in three-point attempt percentage (36.3), meaning the Mountaineers don’t take many shots from deep.

• Fouling issues: WVU struggles to play defense without fouling. WVU ranks 330th in opposing team free-throw rate (39.4%).

• Turnover issues: The Mountaineers turn the ball over at a high rate — 18.6% in turnover rate, ranking 216th in the nation

West Virginia Name to Know

6-foot-4 senior guard Erik Stevenson (No. 10)

+ Sharpshooter (shoots 39.2% from three)

+ Solid rebounder (3.5 rebounds per game)

- Can wear down due to high usage rate (31%)

- Turnover prone (2.3 turnovers per game)

Tale of the Tape

The Mountaineers don’t shoot a ton of three-pointers but make them at high percentages when they do (35.2%).

Here, Stevenson swung the ball to Tre Mitchell at the top of the key, who then drained a shot. Mitchell is hitting 38.1% of his threes this year, but Stevenson is the real threat. He attempted 186 regular-season three-balls, while none of his teammates even attempted 100.

Indeed, if there’s one thing to know about Stevenson, it’s that he isn’t shy to take any shot.

Here, the guard received the pass well beyond the arc, immediately went up and canned it. Kansas needs to keep a player on him at all times and may face-guard him to keep him from getting hot. If Stevenson is cold, then WVU’s offense is much easier to stop.

Game Prediction

KU comes in well-rested after finishing off the regular season with a loss against Texas on Saturday.

The matchup to watch for in this game is how KU handles the strength and physicality of the Mountaineers. Though Kansas swept the season series, the Jayhawks struggled in the last game because they allowed West Virginia to win the rebounding battle.

The Mountaineers had eight more rebounds than KU, including eight-more offensive rebounds (14-6). That’s a key in the third meeting between these teams.

On the other side of things, the Jayhawks must contain Stevenson. Last game, the guard scored 23 points on 9-for-22 shooting and made his mark by scoring from anywhere on the floor. If KU can limit Stevenson, the Mountaineers won’t be as lethal from beyond the arc and may not be able to keep up with KU.

Overall, I like KU in this one. While West Virginia is bigger and more physical, the Mountaineers probably played as well as they could have in the last meeting with KU and still lost. I just don’t think the Mountaineers have the offensive firepower to keep up.

Kansas 78, West Virginia 72

Shreyas’ pick to cover the spread: Kansas (-3, DraftKings)

Shreyas’ season record: 14-8

Shreyas’ record against the spread: 12-10

KU Player to watch: Gradey Dick

Kansas guard Gradey Dick is in a bit of a shooting slump. After going without a bucket against Texas Tech, Dick had six points on a 2-for-5 shooting from the floor against UT.

This game is the perfect opportunity for Dick to return to his normal scoring ways, as he averaged 16 points per game against WVU this season. Opponents shoot 34.6% against the Mountaineers from beyond the arc, ranking 206th in the nation. So, the sharpshooter should thrive against West Virginia’s porous defense.

Look for KU to set up Dick with quality shots in transition, as those shots seem to be Dick’s bread and butter. More importantly, transition shots are probably the most open the freshman will be all game.