Keys to victory, betting line, predictions for Boise State’s game at New Mexico

New Mexico hasn’t been a powerhouse in the Mountain West Conference, but Boise State coach Andy Avalos said the Broncos will have their work cut out for them against the Lobos on Friday (7 p.m., CBS Sports Network).

New Mexico defensive coordinator Rocky Long’s 3-3-5 scheme is unique, Avalos said. It relies on presnap motion and disguised assignments to keep offenses guessing.

“Rocky Long is one of the best defensive coordinators in this game,” Avalos said. “A lot of people have poached his defense.”

The Lobos (1-0) limited Maine to just 22 rushing yards last weekend. Boise State left tackle John Ojukwu said the offensive line is going to have to be on its toes if the Broncos (0-1) are going to improve on the 126 rushing yards they posted against Oregon State — 74 of which came on a quarterback scramble from Taylen Green.

“Everybody on the same page and everybody communicating, that’s the biggest piece,” Ojukwu told reporters on Tuesday.

Offensively, New Mexico’s multifaceted rushing attack averaged 4.8 yards per carry while racking up 267 yards on the ground in a 41-0 win over Maine, a FCS program.

Boise State defensive coordinator Spencer Danielson said he isn’t looking past the Lobos, who have beaten the Broncos only once in a series that spans 12 games.

“We’ve got a lot of respect for what they do,” Danielson said. “They’ll give you everything in the run game. You’ll get triple-option fits, versions of gap schemes and perimeter runs, and they can put you in a lot of run-pass conflicts with the quarterback they have.”

Boise State QBs competing to start vs. New Mexico; former Borah star done for season

Keys to victory

Get Green in the game: Whether he starts or not over four-year starter, Hank Bachmeier, Green needs to get in the game. The Broncos have to find a way to get the running game going, and putting the ball in Green’s hands may be the best way to do it. He looked like the best athlete on the field at times last weekend, easily slipping away from pass rushers in the backfield and sprinting down the sideline for that 74-yard touchdown.

Boise State’s offensive line struggled mightily to open rushing lanes and give quarterbacks time to find an open receiver at Oregon State, but Green’s freakish athleticism also allows him to create explosive plays when his protection breaks down.

Get in the QB’s face: Boise State’s pass rushers were basically nonexistent in the season opener at Oregon State. The Broncos didn’t record a sack, and they finished the game with just three hits on Beavers quarterback Chance Nolan, according to Danielson. That’s not going to cut it, and it’s not what Boise State expected to get out of a revamped group of edge rushers.

George Tarlas transferred in from Weber State, where he posted 17 career sacks. Demitri Washington is as healthy as he’s been, Isaiah Bagnah returned to the edge group after spending fall camp at weakside linebacker, and defensive tackle Scott Matlock tallied a career-high seven sacks last season.

“Our goal is three sacks and 10 quarterback hits a game,” Danielson said. “If you do that, you win.”

Special teams need to be special: Boise State has built its reputation over the years on blocked kicks and momentum-swinging returns, and special teams gave the Broncos a boost last season in a 37-0 win over New Mexico. Boise State blocked two punts and returned both for touchdowns in the first half, and kicker Jonah Dalmas finished the game 3-for-3 on field goals, hitting one from 46 yards.

The Broncos’ special teams were below average at Oregon State. They got nothing out of the return game, and Dalmas — who set a Boise State record with 26 made field goals last season — missed two of his three attempts. Boise State needs a big play from its special teams Friday, not only to steal the momentum against the Lobos but to set the tone for the rest of the season.

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Key matchups

Boise State N Tyreque Jones vs. New Mexico WR Luke Wysong: Wysong is a versatile, explosive athlete who led New Mexico with 128 all-purpose yards against Maine. He was second on the team with 43 rushing yards and scored on a 13-yard touchdown run. He also caught three passes for 51 yards and a 10-yard touchdown, and returned three punts for 34 yards. Wysong is going to line up all over the field for the Lobos, and Jones is going to have to keep track of where he is.

Jones, a sixth-year senior, made his debut at nickel last weekend. Still adjusting to man-to-man coverage after spending the past several seasons at safety, he got beat on two early touchdown passes. He also snuffed out an early reverse and proved to be one of the Broncos’ most active tacklers. Jones finished the game with five tackles and two tackles for loss.

Boise State edge Demitri Washington vs. New Mexico QB Miles Kendrick: Kendrick, a transfer from Kansas, is a threat to run the ball, but New Mexico’s triple-option offense makes him even more dangerous. He posted 40 rushing yards in the Lobos’ win over Maine, and he completed 14-of-17 passes for 170 yards, with two touchdowns and two interceptions.

Washington has to play disciplined Friday and set the edge to keep Kendrick from getting outside of the pocket. Washington also needs to hit Kendrick every time he gets the opportunity, so the Lobos’ QB starts worrying more about those hits than cutting up the field for positive yards.

Predictions

Boise State has won 22 straight conference openers, dating back to 2000 and spanning the Big West, Western Athletic and Mountain West conferences. The Broncos are 11-0 in conference openers since joining the Mountain West. They’re 149-20 in regular season conference games since 2000.

Boise State is 11-1 all-time against New Mexico. The Broncos’ only loss in the series was a 31-24 setback at home in 2015. They’re a 16.5-point favorite Friday, according to Las Vegas, with an over/under of 44 points.

New Mexico is 5-15 in its past 20 regular season games as an underdog at home, and the Lobos are 9-11 against the spread. Boise State is 15-5 in its past 20 regular season games as the favorite on the road and 10-9-1 ATS.

My pick (0-1 straight up, 0-1 ATS): Boise State is going to be desperate to prove its performance in the season opener was a fluke. The Broncos are going to want to show they can still dominate the Mountain West, which may be bad news for New Mexico. They are facing offensive and defensive schemes that give teams a lot of trouble, but no matter who the quarterback is, Boise State is going to commit to the running game. George Holani is going to post his first 100-yard game since the Broncos’ 37-0 win over New Mexico last season. Boise State also gets a big play from special teams, and it pulls away in the second half. Final score: Boise State 35, New Mexico 14

BOISE STATE AT NEW MEXICO

When: 7 p.m. Friday

Where: University Stadium, Albuquerque, New Mexico

TV: CBS Sports Network (Chris Lewis, Danny Kannel, Amanda Guerra)

Radio: KBOI 670 AM/KTIK 93.1 FM (Bob Behler, Pete Cavender)

Records: Boise State 0-1, 0-0 MW; New Mexico 1-0, 0-0 MW

Series: Boise State leads 11-1. The Broncos’ only loss was in 2015; they shut out the Lobos 37-0 last season.

Vegas line: Boise State by 16.5

Weather: High of 94 degrees, 15% chance of rain, 10 mph wind