Kentucky vs. Youngstown State predictions: Can the Wildcats find snaps for young backups?

It’s almost football time in the Bluegrass! Here are some final thoughts and predictions about how the University of Kentucky’s game versus Youngstown State might play out on Saturday afternoon.

AVOID THE LETDOWN

Last weekend’s college football chaos may help Kentucky this week more than just clearing spots to rocket into the top 10 of both major polls. In advance of games against FCS Youngstown State and Mid-American Conference foe Northern Illinois, Mark Stoops is certain to remind his players of how top-10 teams Texas A&M and Notre Dame lost to unranked Sun Belt Conference opponents last week.

With the emotions of Kentucky’s statement win at Florida still high, it’s a lesson that bears repeating this week, especially when one considers a year ago the Wildcats struggled in a 28-23 win over FCS Chattanooga.

“Noon game, that can kind of get in the way of guys’ juice,” quarterback Will Levis said. “Even though we’re getting up early and we’re getting over there, expecting another great crowd from the fans, sometimes in situations like that you’ve got to rely on your own energy and your own juice.

“The second you’re behind it might be too late. Try to keep that energy and focus throughout practice this week and have that carry into game day, and I think we’ll be good.”

Perhaps the added attention pointed at Youngstown State because Stoops and several other UK coaches grew up in Youngstown will help avoid a flat performance. Or maybe the extra visitors in town will lead to distraction.

Either way, a close win will not be enough for Kentucky to cement its status as a top-10 team.

“We’ve learned a lot in the past,” defensive coordinator Brad White said. “You don’t just roll the ball out. This is a really good football team.”

A NEW STARTING SAFETY

What is expected to be a season-ending knee injury for normal starting safety Jalen Geiger did not prevent a dominant defensive performance from Kentucky at Florida, but after the adrenaline of that game wore off the Wildcats were left with a major hole to fill in the secondary.

Redshirt freshman Jordan Lovett is expected to take over the starting free safety spot this week. Junior Taj Dodson was listed as his backup on the depth chart, and Texas State transfer Zion Childress, listed as the backup strong safety, could also see reps at the position.

Lovett credited Geiger with helping him develop after an impressive spring practice to a position where he can start now.

“I’d just see everything Jalen does,” Lovett said. “If he messes up, then I see what to do right. If he does something right, I make sure I’ve got to do this when I get in. But now, I’ve just got to stay on point because everything comes to me first.”

Through two games, Lovett ranks fifth on the team with nine tackles. He will be one of three former North Hardin High School stars expected to play major roles for Kentucky this season alongside defensive tackle Octavious Oxendine and running back La’Vell Wright.

“It’s unfortunate for Jalen that it happened obviously in the second game, but I just told Jordan to stay the course,” safeties coach Frank Buffano said. “We’re doing a little extra as far as communication and all of that, just making sure it’s clean and clear. But, he’s ready. The whole plan was to have a good rotation this year with all of them. … I think he’s locked in. It’s a home game, which will help. We’ll see how it goes. I have all the confidence in him.”

UNLEASH THE FRESHMEN

First-year Wildcats Dane Key, Barion Brown, Deone Walker and Alex Afari have already cemented their status as important contributors this week, but if the Youngstown State game plays out according to script there should be an opportunity to find more freshmen snaps.

“We’re about to unleash two young guys that can run as fast as anyone in the country,” offensive coordinator Rich Scangarello said. “I can’t wait to put them on the field against Youngstown. Wait until you see these two guys running. It just gets better and better, so I’m excited about what we have.”

Scangarello was likely referring to wide receivers Jordan Anthony and Dekel Crowdus. Anthony, a freshman, won the U.S. U20 title in the 200-meter dash this summer. Crowdus, a redshirt freshman from Frederick Douglass High School, has been a frequent target of praise from Stoops in recent weeks despite not having a pass thrown his direction yet.

Freshman left tackle Kiyaunta Goodwin, a former five-star recruit, should see his first extended action as Kentucky looks to develop other options at a position of concern. Freshmen Keaten Wade, Tyreese Fearbry and Noah Matthews could see time at outside linebacker. Geiger’s injury also opens the possibility of freshman safety Kobi Albert playing more.

NCAA rules allow players to appear in up to four games without losing a year of eligibility. Youngstown State should offer a chance to use one of those games to evaluate more freshmen to see if it’s worth burning a redshirt season in hopes of contributions later this season.

FINAL PREDICTIONS

Kentucky 45, Youngstown State 14: The Penguins have some good players — keep an eye on running back Jale McLaughlin and former UK wide receiver Bryce Oliver — but if Kentucky is a legitimate top-10 team, this game should not be close. I expect Scangarello to stick with a fairly vanilla offensive game plan and hold any unused wrinkles back for Ole Miss in two weeks, but Kentucky’s speed advantage should still lead to several big plays. If the starters are still playing in the fourth quarter, it will be a disappointment.

MVP: Barion Brown. We saw Brown’s elite speed on a 100-yard kickoff return for a touchdown in the season-opening win over Miami (Ohio), but he and Levis have not quite found their chemistry in the passing game yet. This feels like the week where Brown records at least a couple big catches. Maybe one screen for a touchdown and another deep ball to put him over 100 receiving yards for the first time in his career.

The spread: Most sports books do not publish spreads for FBS-FCS games, but VegasInsider.com’s consensus line lists the spread at 25.5 points as of Thursday afternoon. UK’s average margin of victory in the annual game against FCS teams since the schedule permanently expanded to 12 games in 2006 is 29 points per game. The average would be even higher if not for an overtime win over Eastern Kentucky in 2015 and last season’s closer-than-expected win over Chattanooga.

Will Levis passing yards: 350

Kentucky punts: 2

Youngstown State turnovers: 3

Shots of Bob Stoops on the broadcast: 5

THE LAST WORD

Scangarello on his first big win for Kentucky:

“The euphoria after the (Florida) game, it was probably as good a feeling as I’ve had coaching that I can remember. Quite honestly, it’s just different in the SEC than in the NFL. It was a cool feeling. It really was a special feeling. I was really happy for Coach, the situation, the players. It was fun to be a part of.”

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