Kentucky vs. Vanderbilt predictions: Can the Wildcats finally win an SEC game comfortably?
It’s almost football time in the Bluegrass! Here are some final thoughts and predictions about how Kentucky’s game against Vanderbilt might play out on Saturday.
VANDERBILT WILL PROBABLY BE SHORT-HANDED
Kentucky’s status as a heavy home favorite against the Commodores, who have lost six of their last seven games, was strengthened this week by injury news from Nashville.
Usual starting quarterback AJ Swann has been ruled out due to an injury he suffered in Vanderbilt’s last game against South Carolina. Offensive linemen Ben Cox and Xavier Castillo and defensive lineman Daevion Davis are not expected to play. Vanderbilt Coach Clark Lea also noted this week a flu outbreak has affected the team, though he did not specify which players were sick or if any would miss the game due to illness.
With Swann out, Vanderbilt will turn to quarterback Mike Wright, who opened the season as the Commodores’ starter but later lost the job to Swann.
“I think the basic philosophy, the style of the play scheme is similar,” UK defensive coordinator Brad White said of Vanderbilt’s offense with Wright at the helm. “Obviously, there’s differences in terms of one (quarterback) prefers to push the ball a little bit more. One can do a lot of damage with his legs and his arm.”
Wright has thrown for more than 200 yards just three times in 21 career appearances, but he has proven to be a dynamic runner at times. He ranks second on Vanderbilt’s team in rushing yards (328) this season with four rushing touchdowns.
Against Kentucky last season, Wright came off the bench to complete seven of 11 passes for 58 yards and two touchdowns. He ran for a touchdown and threw a touchdown on his only pass attempt in a cameo against the Wildcats in 2020.
“We’ve got to do a good job with him,” White said. “But he can still very much operate and function. You saw it early in the season against Hawaii and Elon, how many points they were able to put up on the board. If he gets out in the open, he can create an explosive (play) by himself. Obviously, that piece of it, we’ve got to be really solid.”
NEW FACES COULD PLAY FOR KENTUCKY
With three regular season games and a bowl left for the Wildcats, Kentucky has reached the point in the season where the freshmen currently slated to redshirt could be realistic options to boost depth.
NCAA rules allow players to appear in up to four games while still preserving a redshirt season.
Eight freshmen have already passed that threshold: Defensive lineman Deone Walker, outside linebacker Keaten Wade, offensive tackle Kiyaunta Goodwin, tight end Josh Kattus, defensive backs Alex Afari and Kobi Albert and wide receivers Barion Brown and Dane Key. Six scholarship freshmen have not played in a game yet, meaning they could play in all four of the remaining games if needed and still preserve a redshirt: quarterback Destin Wade, kicker Jackson Smith, wide receiver Brandon White, defensive back Andre Stewart and offensive linemen Grant Bingham and Nik Hall.
The math is a little more complicated for five freshmen who have already made their debuts: wide receiver Jordan Anthony, defensive back Elijah Reed, defensive lineman Tomiwa Durojaiye and outside linebackers Tyreese Fearbry and Noah Matthews. Matthews has played in three games. Durojaiye and Fearbry have played in two. Anthony and Reed have played in one.
“There’s a few guys we still have to be strategic with,” Kentucky Coach Mark Stoops said of the redshirting group. “The outside backers, just keeping an eye on that and when we’re going to use them. You never know how things are going to go with injuries down the stretch. We’ve been able to withstand it to this point, but you don’t want more attrition. … The bowl game can sometimes get thin as well, so we’re going to make sure we’re smart with that.”
Destin Wade looks like the most obvious candidate among the redshirting group to play down the stretch since he was elevated to No. 2 on the depth chart at quarterback recently and Kentucky coaches will surely try to find some rest for banged-up starter Will Levis if the situation presents itself. Smith could be another candidate given Kentucky’s kicking struggles this year, but Stoops issued a vote of confidence in starter Matt Ruffolo earlier in the week.
“I’d love to see some guys get in,” Stoops said. “There are some guys with plenty of room, and I’d like to see them play. Then there’s a few guys we’ve got to watch. Just like last year, I’d have loved to play Khalil (Saunders) … but we had used it up. We decided to save that year, but he certainly could have helped us in a game.”
KENTUCKY FOOTBALL INJURY REPORT
The Wildcats are likely to be without their two super senior inside linebackers again this week.
Middle linebacker Jacquez Jones, who has missed the last four games, still has “a little while” before he will be ready to play again, Stoops said Thursday. Weakside linebacker DeAndre Square did practice some this week after missing the Missouri win but is still “highly questionable” to play against Vanderbilt.
With Jones and Square out, D’Eryk Jackson and Trevin Wallace are set to start again. Wallace impressed while filling in for Square at Missouri with nine tackles and 2.5 tackles for loss.
There was better news on offense where No. 2 running back JuTahn McClain was back in full pads for Wednesday’s practice, according to photos tweeted from the official UK team account. McClain suffered an undisclosed injury at Tennessee then did not make the trip to Missouri.
Offensive coordinator Rich Scangarello revealed after the Missouri win that Levis has been limited in practice in recent weeks. Levis showed up to the postgame news conference with a walking boot on his left foot, but Kentucky’s star quarterback is expected to keep playing through his mounting health issues.
“Will’s not reckless, just because he’s tough and physical, and fights through things,” Stoops said. “He’s not a reckless person. He’s very intelligent. There’s nothing that we would let him play with that we felt like could get worse. That’s not the case. There’s a difference between hurting and being injured, and we would never let him play injured.
“He’s hurting but if you ask 95% of our football team right now, they’re hurting and it’s a tough game. It doesn’t surprise me with Will. Yes, the mobility is unfortunate for himself and for us because we’ve seen what he’s done in the past with his mobility. But Will will continue to work extremely hard to get treatment and be as ready as he can be to help his team.”
FINAL PREDICTIONS
Kentucky 35, Vanderbilt 14
With rain and snow in the forecast for Saturday in Lexington, it’s probably not the week to expect Kentucky’s offense to suddenly start piling up big point totals, but a heavy dose of running back Chris Rodriguez should still be enough to win this one comfortably. The guess here is Stoops and company try to find some rest for Levis in the fourth quarter, ensuring he is as healthy as possible for next week’s game against No. 1 Georgia.
MVP: Chris Rodriguez. Kentucky’s star running back has topped the 100-yard plateau in three of five games since returning from a four-game suspension. He needs one more 100-yard game to tie Benny Snell’s career record (19). Rodriguez probably has run out of time to catch Snell’s career rushing yards record, but with a huge performance Saturday it could be back within reach. Rodriguez needs to average 141 yards per game in the final four games to break Snell’s record (3,873).
The spread: As of Friday, Kentucky was favored by 17.5 points. The Wildcats have won just two games by that margin this season: a 37-13 win over Miami (Ohio) in the opener and a 31-0 win over FCS Youngstown State in week three. Four of Vanderbilt’s six losses this season have come by at least 20 points, but the Commodores did lose by single digits in the last two weeks against Missouri and South Carolina.
Chris Rodriguez rushing yards: 185
Mike Wright rushing yards: 30
Kentucky turnovers: 1
Number of series with Destin Wade at quarterback: 2
THE LAST WORD
“You can ask me that in spring and I can give you the final verdict on that. We’ve got several games left this season. We’ve got to finish. That’s the thing that the ‘18 team did. They finished down the stretch, and we need to do the same thing. That’s to-be-determined.”
— Defensive coordinator Brad White on how this UK defense compares to 2018
The John Clay Podcast: Kentucky-Vanderbilt football preview
Is this Mark Stoops’ best defense at Kentucky? Here’s what the numbers say.
How Kentucky and Vanderbilt match up — with a game prediction
‘He’s just so smart.’ This Kentucky football breakout candidate is making good on hype.
Why Kentucky football fans need to root for Tennessee to reach College Football Playoff
