Kentucky vs. South Carolina predictions: Can Wildcats ruin Gamecocks’ bowl hopes?

It’s almost football time in the Bluegrass! Here are some final thoughts and predictions about how Kentucky’s game against South Carolina might play out in Columbia on Saturday.

What is left to play for

The stakes for South Carolina this weekend are clear.

The Gamecocks need to beat Kentucky and Clemson in the final two regular season games to reach six wins and bowl eligibility. After a 47-6 blowout of Vanderbilt last week, South Carolina has some momentum toward that goal.

Kentucky has already clinched an eighth consecutive bowl appearance, but it is now unlikely the Wildcats’ bowl destination will be a game that excites the fan base.

Still, UK coach Mark Stoops made it clear his team knows every win increases Kentucky’s standing in the SEC bowl selection process.

“Bowl placement is a reality for us, I think,” Stoops said. “Improving our placement, improving our record in the SEC, getting another win — you know what it’s worth. I think that motivation is more what we’re concerned about is us, is us trying to get another win, get to .500 in the SEC, and get to another win and improve our placement.”

If South Carolina wins Saturday then takes out rival Clemson in the regular season finale, the Gamecocks would probably have priority over Kentucky in the bowl selection process, especially if Kentucky also loses to Louisville to finish with an identical 6-6 record. Still, the SEC’s selection process for its mid-tier bowls — the league office assigns teams on a number of criteria including the effort to avoid repeat trips in a short window — might mean South Carolina’s advantage does not matter much since the Gamecocks played in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl two years ago and that game might be Kentucky’s top remaining realistic target.

But Stoops and company know the best path to the most exciting bowl trip possible is to win more games, starting at South Carolina.

A new age rivalry

The future of the SEC football schedule remains in flux, but in an eight-game model where each team has only one fixed annual opponent, Kentucky and South Carolina appear likely to be paired together by default. Even in a nine-game format with three fixed opponents, it seems a safe bet that the Wildcats and Gamecocks will continue to play every season.

A poll of UK fans would surely reveal Tennessee as the Wildcats’ top SEC rival, but the Volunteers would probably be matched with in-state rival Vanderbilt in the seven-and-one format. You could make an argument for Florida, Georgia and Vanderbilt ahead of South Carolina on the list of UK SEC rivals too, but the recent history of the series has been intense.

Kentucky has won eight of the last 10 meetings in the series, but South Carolina upset the Wildcats in Lexington last season with quarterback Will Levis sidelined by injury. That win resurfaced drama from the summer when South Carolina fans perceived a comment from Stoops at SEC media days as a shot at Gamecocks coach Shane Beamer.

Stoops dismissed a reporter’s suggestion this week that there was tension between him and Beamer though.

“I have no idea where you would get that information from,” Stoops said. “I have no clue where that would come. I don’t feel that way, maybe he does. I don’t know. You have to ask him. I don’t feel that at all.

“It’s another game and we need it for our university, for our players. There’s zero to do with me and Shane.”

Regardless of Stoops’ and Beamer’s relationship, it looks like there will be plenty of opportunities for this rivalry to grow moving forward.

Kentucky football injury report

The big injury update for the week was the return of cornerback Andru Phillips to practice. Phillips did not play against Alabama. His absence cannot be considered the sole cause for the Wildcats’ defensive struggles in that game, but it clearly did not help. Defensive coordinator Brad White pointed to the need to help protect young defensive backs forced to play in that game as part of the reason the pass rush was not as effective as hoped.

Backup running back JuTahn McClain also missed the Alabama game after being injured on a controversial play at South Carolina. Backup running back Ramon Jefferson did impress in an expanded role with McClain out, busting off a 74-yard run late in the loss to Alabama.

PREDICTIONS

Kentucky 28, South Carolina 24

There is a lot working against Kentucky in this matchup, but I still believe the Wildcats are the better team. With its starting quarterback healthy this year, UK gets some revenge. The defense will need to post significant improvement though to escape Columbia with a victory.

MVP: Devin Leary

For Kentucky to win, this needs to be a game where Leary plays like the version of himself on display against Tennessee and for much of the first half at Mississippi State. South Carolina ranks 124th nationally in passing yards allowed per game (268.4). UK coaches noticed some schematic changes to the South Carolina defense against Vanderbilt. While those changes might lead to some improvement, it seems too late in the season for a total philosophy shift.

THE LAST WORD

Stoops on preparing for South Carolina blasting “Sandstorm” during the game:

“The great thing about that song is it gets everybody juiced. It’s lively, it’s fun.”

‘All the young guys should look at Ty.’ How UK football freshman made most of opportunity.

UK football offense faces plenty of questions, but it might have found its go-to receiver

Vote for your favorite UK football uniform combo. Chrome? Anthracite? Or more traditional?

Alabama loss narrows options for Kentucky football bowl game. See the latest projections.

UK football’s pass rush is under fire again. ‘Ultimately, it’s just not good enough.’