Kentucky vs. Miami (Ohio) predictions: How the Wildcats can open season with a bang

It’s almost football time in the Bluegrass! Here are some final thoughts and predictions about how the University of Kentucky’s 2022 season opener against Miami (Ohio) might play out at Kroger Field on Saturday night.

Youth will be served

The first two-deep depth chart of the 2022 season featured six freshmen, eight redshirt freshmen and six transfers. Eight players from that group were listed as starters.

Transfers like right guard Tashawn Manning, wide receiver Tayvion Robinson and cornerback Keidron Smith are no strangers to big-time college football atmospheres, but even they will likely face some nerves playing in a new uniform for the first time. Several of the redshirt freshmen were able to play in a handful of games last season while preserving a year of eligibility.

But the true freshmen on the depth chart — as well as a few other class of 2022 signees expected to play in the game — will make their college debut under the lights.

“It’s exciting for now,” offensive coordinator Rich Scangarello said. “It’s exciting for the future. We’re going to build on that, but practice is practice. They’ve done it in practice, they’ve earned that right. Now we’ve got to go see when the lights are on what we’re all about.

“Will it be perfect? No, but eventually we’ll get there and I’m excited to see how they can play.”

Wide receivers Dane Key and Barion Brown, tight end Josh Kattus, defensive tackle Deone Walker, nickel back Alex Afari and outside linebacker Keaten Wade are the freshmen on the depth chart. Productive games from those players would make it easier to plan on them being a major part of the game plan in week two at Florida.

An early test for the secondary

After spring practice, no position on the Kentucky roster faced more questions than the defensive secondary. Concern there was evident when UK coaches added three transfers to the roster this summer.

But since the start of fall camp, Mark Stoops and the defensive coaches have expressed confidence in the group’s outlook for the season. At one point, Stoops compared the defensive backs to the secondary from 2020 that included three of four starters currently on an NFL roster.

“Those guys have taken that personally — and not just on the back end,” defensive coordinator Brad White said. “It’s across the board. They want to be considered a top-notch defense and they know they have to earn it in every game and every category.”

Miami should represent an early chance to prove that confidence justified.

The RedHawks ranked 21st nationally in passing yards per game (278.5) last season. Quarterback Brett Gabbert, the brother of Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Blaine Gabbert, was an All-MAC selection. Gabbert enters 2022 with 26 games started.

“The head coach and offensive coordinator, they want to push it down the field,” defensive backs coach Chris Collins said. “They feel really good about their quarterback. Rightfully so. He’s a really good player. They’ve got a lot of threats on the outside, so we have to be locked in.”

Effect of the suspensions

It was no coincidence that the point spread dropped by more than three points after Monday’s confirmation that running back Chris Rodriguez and outside linebacker Jordan Wright would miss the game for Kentucky, but Kentucky was still favored by 16.5 points as of Thursday afternoon.

Which absence is more troubling for Kentucky?

Rodriguez is certainly the more accomplished player, but the Wildcats appear well positioned to account for his loss against a MAC foe. Starting running back Kavosiey Smoke has extensive college experience, and backup Ramon Jefferson was among the most productive FCS running backs in the country last year for Sam Houston State. JuTahn McClain. LaVell Wright and Mike Drennen add more depth to the running back rotation.

Meanwhile, Stoops chose to only list one outside linebacker position on the depth chart with Wright out. Kentucky will attempt to account for that loss by playing with an extra defensive back on the field at most times, but any scenario that does require two outside linebackers will see a freshman play opposite J.J. Weaver.

Wade is listed as Weaver’s backup. Freshmen Tyreese Fearbry and Noah Matthews are the other options. An injury to Weaver would leave Kentucky is a dire situation at the position until those freshmen gain needed experience.

“Those guys have a lot going on,” White said. “They’ve made definitive progress, and we’re going to need them to continue. So, they’re each going to sort of have to find what they can do. I’ve got to find what they can do best and try to put them in those situations. Because obviously we’re going to need them. … We’re going to be young at times, but they’ve got to learn.”

Final predictions

Kentucky 35, Miami 17: Wildcats players and coaches have said all the right things this week about respecting Miami, but Stoops will hope those words were more than just lip service. The RedHawks are among the preseason MAC favorites, and Kentucky has been prone to flat performances in its opener for most of the Stoops era. Last season’s UK team bucked that trend with a 45-10 season-opening blowout of Louisiana-Monroe, but that ULM team was coming off a winless season. Miami should be a stiffer challenge.

Still, the prediction here is the number of new faces playing for the Wildcats on Saturday helps keep the focus on the task at hand. Quarterback Will Levis shined in his debut a year ago, despite throwing an interception on his first career pass for Kentucky. He has a knack for stepping up for the big moment. There will be more difficult tests ahead — including next week at Florida — but this qualifies as a chance to make an early statement for the new UK offense.

MVP: Kavosiey Smoke. Most of the focus will be on Levis, but Smoke should be plenty motivated to prove he is more than just a fill-in for Rodriguez. Coaches have raved about how much the senior running back has matured over the summer. His physical skills have never been in doubt, so expect at least a couple of long runs to put him over the 100-yard rushing mark in what will likely be a timeshare with Jefferson.

The spread: Kentucky is favored by 16.5 points. That number seems reasonable for a team ranked 20th in the preseason Associated Press top 25 facing a MAC squad coming off a 7-6 season, but keep in mind UK has beaten its first FBS opponent of a season by that many points just twice in the Stoops era. This is not normal Kentucky though. Getting some much-needed experience for the plethora of new receivers should keep Stoops from going into grind-it-out mode as normal as he might normally.

Will Levis total yards: 365

Catches for the UK tight ends: Nine

Sacks for UK defense: 2.5

Turnover margin: Kentucky, plus-two

Freshmen who make their debut: 10

The last word

Defensive coordinator Brad White on the possibility of winning ugly:

“At the end of the day, the only stat that matters is points. … If you told me that we’d give up 900 yards and let up zero points, I would take it every day of the week. Every day of the week, as opposed to giving up 30 points and 250 total yards. If we can keep them off the scoreboard, we give our team a chance to win.”