Kentucky vs. Georgia predictions: How will struggling offense fare vs. nation’s top defense?

It’s almost football time in the Bluegrass. Here are some final thoughts and predictions about how Kentucky’s game against No. 1 Georgia might play out on Saturday.

Drowning out the noise

Even if Kentucky was entering this game on a hot streak with everyone in the locker room clearly pointed toward the same goal, its best performance might not be enough to beat Georgia. So, how will a Kentucky team facing no shortage of distractions this week fare?

“It doesn’t matter whether you’re in the NFL or college, you’ve got people at home, you’ve got people on Instagram and everywhere else that are getting to you,” offensive coordinator Rich Scangarello said this week. “Yeah, there is noise. I always feel like they’ll tell you things are better than they are when they are good and they’ll tell you things are worse than they are when they’re bad. The truth is somewhere in the middle.

“You can’t panic. You’ve got to keep going after it. You’ve got to strive every day to be your best version of yourself. If you can do that, you can play at this level, you can coach at this level, you can play in the NFL, you can do those things. If you can’t handle those distractions, it’s too big for you and you’re in the wrong spot.”

Much of the noise this week has been directed at Scangarello himself with the offense failing to score more than 21 points in an SEC game this season and posting another frustrating performance in the shocking loss to Vanderbilt last week. Mark Stoops has been clear he has no plans to make staff changes in the season, but he also did not shy away from the reality that the future of the offense is under evaluation.

Just minutes after Scangarello talked to reporters, one of his players stepped to the interview podium and threw more fuel on that fire.

What stood out about the offense’s red zone struggles against Vanderbilt that saw three drives reach at least the Vanderbilt 30-yard line in the first half and come away with just six total points?

“Probably, I’d just say like the play-calling,” redshirt freshman wide receiver Dekel Crowdus said. “We were down in the red zone. Just couldn’t get it, so that’s pretty much what I could say.”

It should be noted that on a college football roster with more than 100 players, there is always a group of players unhappy about their roles who think they should be more involved. It would not exactly be a shock to learn a player who ranks 10th on the team in catches for an offense that has struggled to consistently score points might have a problem with coaching decisions.

But given the backdrop of speculation about Scangarello’s job security this week, Crowdus’ comment raised more eyebrows that it might have otherwise.

No one is putting much stock in the idea of Kentucky being the first team to hand Georgia a loss this season, but if there is a fracture in the locker room or a divide between players and coaches, this is the kind of game that could get ugly quickly.

No. 1 for a reason

The size of the challenge facing Kentucky this week is clear.

Georgia ranks sixth nationally in scoring offense (40.6 points per game) and second in scoring defense (11.6 points per game). No team has scored more than 22 points against the Bulldogs. Five have been held to 10 or fewer points. Meanwhile, Georgia has scored at least 33 points in seven of nine games.

“They deserve to be No. 1,” Stoops said. “They are awfully impressive in every way, shape or form.”

ESPN NFL Draft analyst Todd McShay ranks four Georgia players among his top 30 prospects for the 2023 draft. Not even included in that group is quarterback Stetson Bennett, who ranks 15th nationally in passing yards per game (289.5).

“I’m quite frankly really surprised that he hasn’t had much Heisman buzz,” UK defensive coordinator Brad White said of Bennett. “He is playing at that kind of level. He does not get the credit that he deserves in terms of his command of the offense, his ability to distribute all over the field, his ability to create with his legs.

“... He’s playing as well as anybody. The best quarterback probably we’ve faced all year. No disrespect to anybody, but just his command. Obviously (Hendon) Hooker is playing at an extremely high level. He’s done great (at Tennessee) as well. Again, it’s no disrespect to anybody. It’s more of how well he is playing at quarterback right now.”

Kentucky football injury report

There were no surprises on the Kentucky depth chart released Monday. The Wildcats’ biggest injury question remains at inside linebacker where super seniors DeAndre Square and Jacquez Jones have been out.

Jones is not expected to return this week, but Square at least has a chance to play.

“He is day-to-day,” Stoops said Monday. “I don’t say that to throw people off. He’s day-to-day. I hope so. I know DeAndre. … He’ll try to play today. He’ll try to be out there today.”

Quarterback Will Levis continues to feel the effects of turf toe suffered in early October but is regaining some of his mobility.

“He’s been much better,” Scangarello said Tuesday. “He’s healthier now and he’s feeling better. I think it has allowed him to play a little faster as well, too.”

Final predictions

Georgia 35, Kentucky 6

Given the recent form of Kentucky’s offense and the strength of Georgia’s defense, the bigger question than the outcome Saturday might be whether the Wildcats can even score. Kentucky was last shut out in 2019 in a 21-0 loss to Georgia in Athens. Of particular concern this week is Kentucky ranks 95th nationally in red-zone touchdown percentage (56.4) while Georgia leads the country in opponents’ red-zone touchdown percentage (28.6%). To make this interesting, Kentucky might need a defensive or special teams score. The Bulldogs have surrendered one punt return for a touchdown this season.

MVP: Brock Bowers. “This is as good of a tight end group that you’re going to find in college football,” White said this week. Georgia has multiple starter-level options at tight end but Bowers might be the best tight end in the country, even as a sophomore. He leads Georgia with 615 receiving yards and four touchdowns. A year ago, he caught five passes for 101 yards and two touchdowns against Kentucky.

The spread: Georgia is favored by 22.5 points. The Bulldogs’ average margin of victory in their 10 games this season is 29 points per game. Kentucky’s lone test against a top-five team ended in a 44-6 loss at Tennessee. Georgia beat the same Vanderbilt team that beat Kentucky last week 55-0. It should be noted the last four games between the two programs were all played within 21 points, but Georgia won each.

Will Levis passing yards: 150

Kentucky red-zone opportunities: 1

Kentucky red-zone points: 3

Brock Bowers touchdowns: 2

The last word

“It’s a huge challenge, but that’s why you come to this conference, for those big challenges. If we want to continue to push the program and elevate the program, these are the kind of teams that when you’ve got the opportunity, they come into your house in front of our fan base who can get loud and rowdy, you get a 3:30 CBS game, you’ve got to elevate. All of us do.”

— Defensive coordinator Brad White

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