Kentucky vs. Florida predictions: Can the Wildcats win SEC football opener?
It’s almost football time in the Bluegrass! Here are some final thoughts and predictions about how the University of Kentucky’s 2022 SEC opener at Florida might play out in Gainesville on Saturday night.
REBUILDING THE BIG BLUE WALL
There was always going to be an adjustment period for Kentucky’s much-hyped offensive line this season.
Three starters, including two NFL draft picks, needed to be replaced. New offensive coordinator Rich Scangarello and offensive line coach Zach Yenser planned to emphasize the outside-zone rushing scheme that requires new blocking techniques and was largely abandoned by the staff last season. Even one of the two returning starters was coming off an injury that ended his 2021 season early and was moving to a new position.
But the sight of Kentucky surrendering four sacks and several other pressures in the season opener against a Mid-American Conference defense was still jarring.
Kentucky coaches shook things up on the line this week by moving normal starting left guard Kenneth Horsey to left tackle. That means redshirt freshman Jager Burton will start a second straight game at left guard, and redshirt freshman David Wohlabaugh, who started the opener at left tackle, will now serve as the backup right tackle.
“We talk about them all the time in that room, we’re going to try to put the five most consistent guys out there,” Yenser said. “It’s always been a conversation of if we ever thought we needed to move Horsey out there (tackle) with the experience and both those other guards playing really well. With (Burton) and Tashawn (Manning) both playing really well, it’s hard to take those guys off the field. You’re not going to keep Kenneth off the field when he’s healthy. We just feel like it’s the right move right now.”
Offensive line struggles also played a part in Kentucky netting just 50 rushing yards in the win over Miami (Ohio). That issue has been further complicated by injuries to running backs Ramon Jefferson and JuTahn McClain, but the return of Horsey, who missed most of preseason camp with an injury, to full strength should help.
With Chris Rodriguez still suspended, Kavosiey Smoke is expected to start against Florida at running back. Redshirt freshman La’Vell Wright will serve as his backup. Sophomore Mike Drennen adds additional depth and Tennessee transfer Dee Beckwith, who is listed as a wide receiver on the roster, was spotted taking running back reps after practice this week.
Regardless of who carries the ball, the blocking needs to improve.
“They have to play better, but it wasn’t nearly as bad as maybe it felt in some areas,” Scangarello said. “I’m not going to ever single a play or players out in that way. We can improve. There are little things. I could help them with scheme, I could help them with ways in which we handle some stuff.
“... We had guys in and out all of fall camp. All of them. To finally get them together, now we know we’re just going to ascend as a group. There’s a lot to get better at, but we can get better. We can play harder and more physical, and we’re going to get it done.”
SLOWING ANTHONY RICHARDSON
The comparison between Kentucky’s Will Levis and Florida’s Anthony Richardson, both projected as possible first-round picks in the 2022 NFL Draft, has drawn much attention this week, but the two quarterbacks will not actually face off against each other.
The task of slowing Richardson, who threw for 168 yards and passed for 106 in Florida’s season-opening win over Utah, will fall to the Kentucky defenders.
“One person is not going to stop him,” defensive coordinator Brad White said. “One defense is not going to stop him. We’ve got to do a good job collectively of making sure we’re smart in our rush lanes, we’re smart with how we rush, with all our assignments on all the read options. It’s a challenge.
“When you have a really gifted player, that person can change the outcome of a game. He can change the emotions within the stadium. He can lift a team. … He’s going to make plays. We’ve got to do a good a job of limiting the big ones and respond when he does make plays.”
Richardson boasts impressive arm strength but has yet to prove himself as a consistent passer. He did not throw a touchdown in the opener. His longest completion went for 23 yards.
Saturday’s game will mark just the third career start for the third-year sophomore.
The return of super senior outside linebacker Jordan Wright from suspension could be a boost in Kentucky’s efforts to slow Richardson.
“He brings experience,” Stoops said of Wright. “He brings another pass rusher and another body to chase around a very good quarterback. So, we need all hands on deck. Really glad that he’s back and cleared to play.”
MANAGING THE SWAMP
Another week, another challenge for the group of freshmen Kentucky is counting on for important roles this season.
For the most part, those freshmen acquitted themselves well in the opener.
Wide receivers Barion Brown and Dane Key both scored touchdowns. Defenders Alex Afari, Deone Walker and Keaten Wade all made standout plays to help stall Miami drives.
Playing their first collegiate game undoubtedly brought a fair amount of nerves, but facing a ranked Florida team in front of a sellout crowd at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium is a different type of challenge.
“I feel like they’ll just get better the more they play, how we teach,” Scangarello said. “They understand things. The next step is dealing with hostile environments that you have to deal with in this conference. Great teams win on the road, bottom line. You have to have the mindset, you’ve got to take care of the football. You can’t let it rattle you, and you’ve got to be bigger than it.”
The offensive freshmen will face the brunt of the crowd noise on Saturday night, so communication could be an issue.
To prepare as much as possible for the environment the Wildcats will face in Gainesville, Kentucky has piped in crowd noise to practice throughout the week. At the beginning of the week, Levis instructed Kentucky’s sound crew to turn up the volume because he did not think the artificial noise was loud enough in practice before road games last season.
“We spent some time in fall camp and even in the summer time preparing for some of this stuff,” Scangarello said. “We knew this was an early game and it would be a big environment. You get away with stuff in college football you can’t in the NFL. The claps and all the things you can do, so it’s less of an issue.
“That’s what makes it fun. I’m excited for these guys. This is what it’s all about.”
FINAL PREDICTIONS
Florida 27, Kentucky 24: This prediction has less to do with Florida’s ranking and win over Utah than Kentucky’s own issues from its opener. The talent gap that we typically associate with this series is gone. Kentucky has more than enough to win. I just can’t pick the Wildcats on the road against a good team with the offensive line and running back questions until they prove the issues have been addressed. Regardless, I expect the game to come down to the final possessions. With a prime time game on ESPN, Kentucky has a real chance to make a statement to the rest of the country.
MVP: Will Levis. While Kentucky beat Florida last season for the second time in four years, the game marked one of Levis’s worst performances of the season. After throwing for just 87 yards and rushing for 21 against the Gators last season, Levis surely is motivated to prove himself here. The national attention because of the matchup with Richardson only adds to that motivation. Expect Levis to run more than he did in the opener, but Scangarello has also made it clear he wants to protect Levis from unnecessary hits. It will be hard to rein in Levis’s natural instincts to make plays with his legs in this game though.
The spread: Florida is favored by six points as of Thursday. The last five games in the series have been decided by two scores or fewer. Kentucky has won two games against ranked opponents in each of the last two seasons. The Wildcats’ last win over a ranked team on the road was at No. 18 Tennessee in 2020. UK has lost its last three road games against ranked foes by at least 17 points.
Will Levis total yards: 250
Sacks allowed by Kentucky: 2
Kentucky rushing yards: 120
Florida turnovers: 2
THE LAST WORD
Linebacker Jacquez Jones on the challenge of facing Richardson:
“We’ve just got to embrace it. We know it’s not going to be easy, but we don’t want nothing easy. To be what we want to be at the end of the season, we’ve got to take care of this right here. That’s our mindset.”
Kentucky football will have one of its suspended players back for pivotal game at Florida
The John Clay Podcast: Kentucky-Florida football preview
Can Kentucky really challenge Georgia in the SEC East? Only if it beats Florida first.
Can Mark Stoops keep UK football climbing? Florida is a big part of that answer.
Kentucky loses new running back to torn ACL. Chris Rodriguez still out. What happens now?
