Kentucky is still on the bubble. A run of big opportunities for the Cats begins now.

For John Calipari and his Kentucky Wildcats, only eight games remain in the regular season.

Six of those will be in that all-important “Quad 1” category. And for a UK basketball team still very much on the NCAA Tournament bubble, a respectable record in those games is likely to be crucial.

Kentucky enters the week with a 1-6 mark against Quad 1 opponents, the metric the NCAA’s in-house formula deems the toughest possible games on a team’s schedule and an important sorting statistic on Selection Sunday. A good record in such games is a sign of team strength. A bad record doesn’t necessarily boot you from March Madness consideration, but it won’t be a selling point in any bubble arguments. And UK could very well be in a bubble argument five weeks from now.

The Wildcats do have that big victory at Tennessee — and that accounts for the only Quad 1 win so far — but UK’s home loss to lowly South Carolina was a bad one and is sure to come up in any bubble (or seeding) conversations regarding the Cats on Selection Sunday.

To remove the in-or-out decision from the hands of the NCAA selection committee, Kentucky would do well to win a majority of the games left on its Quad 1 slate. Even winning four of the remaining six games would give the Cats only a 5-8 record, but that — along with beating the other two opponents left on the schedule, Georgia and Vanderbilt — would almost certainly be enough to placate the committee.

Kentucky (16-7, 7-3 in the Southeastern Conference) starts the week with one point in the new Associated Press Top 25 poll (meaning one of the poll’s 62 voters had the Wildcats ranked 25th on the ballot). UK is on the right side of the NCAA Tournament bubble, however, according to the bracketology websites. The Cats are actually in a little better position now than they were this time last week, following a win at short-handed Mississippi (9-14, 1-9 SEC) and a more-impressive victory at home over Florida (13-10, 6-4 SEC).

Bracketville projects Kentucky as a 10 seed (playing Creighton in the first round in Des Moines), while BracketWag.com places the Cats as an 11 seed, barely escaping one of the “First Four” games played in Dayton to gain entry into the tournament’s round of 64.

Joe Lunardi’s update to the ESPN Bracketology board just before tipoff of the UK-Florida game also had the Cats as an 11 seed, just one spot on the right side of the “First Four” cutoff.

The Quad 1 records of some other teams listed slightly below the Cats in the Bracketville projections: North Carolina (1-7), Arkansas (1-5), Oklahoma State (4-7), Nevada (2-4), Memphis (2-2), Virginia Tech (3-5) and Wake Forest (1-6).

None of those teams have a Quad 4 loss.

Kentucky guard Antonio Reeves calls to Wildcats teammate Oscar Tshiebwe during a game against the Florida Gators on Saturday.
Kentucky guard Antonio Reeves calls to Wildcats teammate Oscar Tshiebwe during a game against the Florida Gators on Saturday.

Kentucky vs. Quad 1

Bracketologists are clearly banking on the Cats improving on their current Quad 1 record in the coming weeks, and the first opportunity to better that mark comes Tuesday night in Rupp Arena.

Here’s a quick look at each of UK’s remaining Quad 1 games:

Vs. Arkansas on Tuesday: The Razorbacks start the week at No. 29 in the NET ratings, and only home games against teams in the top 30 qualify as Quad 1 matchups, so it’s possible that UK could win this one Tuesday night, with the corresponding loss to Arkansas dropping the game to Quad 2 status by Wednesday morning. Even so, this is a big one for the Cats. Arkansas is a bubble team, too, with a chance to better its lacking Quad 1 record. The Razorbacks lost four straight games last month, but they’ve won four of five since.

At Mississippi State on Feb. 15: The Bulldogs started the season 11-0 against a not-great schedule, then lost eight of their next nine. Mississippi State has a three-game winning streak headed into the week, and this road game should stay in Quad 1 territory for the Cats, who have a major opportunity to pick up an important win in Starkville next week.

Vs. Tennessee on Feb. 18: The rematch in Rupp after Kentucky shocked Tennessee in Knoxville last month. The Vols remain No. 2 in the NET ratings despite last week’s 13-point loss to Florida, and — even though it’s a home game — this is probably Kentucky’s best remaining chance in the regular season to make a national statement.

At Florida on Feb. 22: UK’s rematch with the Gators will take place just 18 days after game one. Florida is No. 43 in the NET ratings and sitting on the wrong side of the NCAA Tournament bubble, as of now.

Vs. Auburn on Feb. 25: UK and Auburn go into the week tied for the fourth spot in the SEC with 7-3 league records. The top four teams in the standings get a bye into the Friday quarterfinals during SEC Tournament week, so securing that spot could be big. And this is the only time these two teams play, so a tiebreaker could be at stake with this game. Auburn is No. 30 in the NET ratings, and dropping just one spot would make this a Quad 2 game for Kentucky. The Tigers also have a tough week coming up: at Texas A&M on Tuesday and then Alabama on Saturday.

At Arkansas on March 4: The regular-season finale and a rematch of this week’s game in Lexington, the Razorbacks and their fans are always amped when Kentucky comes to town, and — according to the latest KenPom projections — the Wildcats have only a 35 percent chance of winning this game. That makes it the least likely win of UK’s remaining games, according to those projections.

For what it’s worth, the KenPom game-by-game projections have UK finishing out the season with a 4-4 record and a 2-4 mark in Quad 1 games, with losses to Tennessee and on the road against Mississippi State, Florida and Arkansas. Such a scenario would leave the Cats with a dicey 3-10 record overall in Quad 1 games. They’ll need to do better than that to feel good about their NCAA Tournament chances.

After that trip to Fayetteville comes the SEC Tournament — with likely another chance or two at a Quad 1 victory — and then Selection Sunday on March 12.

Whether Kentucky fans tune in that night to find out where the Cats are seeded or if UK will make the NCAA Tournament at all depends on what happens over these next few weeks.

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