Kentucky football vs. Florida predictions: How Wildcats can win third straight in series

It’s almost football time in the Bluegrass! Here are some final thoughts and predictions about how Kentucky’s game against No. 22 Florida might play out at Kroger Field on Saturday.

Big test for UK offensive line

Four games into the season, Kentucky has abandoned one of the offseason offensive line changes that was supposed to spark improvement on the unit. Eli Cox is back at center, where he played in 2022, after starting the first three games at right guard. Jager Burton, who started the season at center, started at right guard against Vanderbilt.

“Eli was really pretty stable,” UK coach Mark Stoops said of the center switch at Vanderbilt. “We didn’t have any snap issues, which was nice. He had, Eli, maybe one missed assignment.

“Jager needs to get some reps and get his feet on the ground (at right guard). We still need to play better inside, play better at guard. I thought (left tackle) Marques Cox played a very good game. Not perfect, but he played a good game. We’re playing better at right (tackle). We have to get playing better inside.”

The interior line struggles at Vanderbilt apparently included left guard Dylan Ray, who has filled in at that position since the injury to starter Kenneth Horsey.

“Both he and Jager had (their) moments,” Stoops said. “Again, they’ve done some good things. Both have played different positions, with Jager playing center and Dylan playing a lot of tackle early in the season. … They’re playing different positions out of necessity. Both need to grow and continue to get reps. I have confidence in both of them, but we need to play better.”

How the offensive line plays against a Florida defense that is surrendering just 82 rushing yards per game will probably say much about the Wildcats’ chances of winning a third straight against the Gators.

Winning the turnover battle

One week after Kentucky scored twice on interception returns versus Vanderbilt the Wildcats might find forcing turnovers a little more difficult against Florida.

The Gators are tied for ninth nationally with just one interception on the season. They have lost three fumbles, but two of those came in the second half of an uninspiring but relatively comfortable win over Charlotte last week.

Quarterback Graham Mertz is one of five SEC starting quarterbacks with one or fewer interceptions this year.

“People need to not get it twisted. ‘Ah, he’s just a game manager,’” UK defensive coordinator Brad White said of Mertz. “No, it’s being smart with the football. That’s how you win football games. He does a nice job of, ‘Hey listen, it’s not there, why force it?’ Take the checkdown, get it to those backs.”

White acknowledged Kentucky’s defense will need to do a better job than Florida’s previous opponents of making Mertz uncomfortable if it is to force turnovers this week. At Wisconsin, Mertz was prone to mistakes in those situations, ranking third in the Big Ten with 10 interceptions last season.

Florida’s defense is among the national leaders in many categories, but the Gators have forced just one turnover in four games. Meanwhile, UK quarterback Devin Leary ranks second in the SEC in interceptions (five).

“I think he’s frustrated because he keeps telling me, ‘This isn’t who I’ve ever been,’” Coen said. “Somebody with the completion percentage and things like that. He’s always maybe been on the higher end and just peppering people with completions. It’s a fine line, but he’s working at it.”

Injury report

Stoops said Monday he was hopeful tight end Josh Kattus would be back this week after missing the Vanderbilt game with an undisclosed injury, but Stoops had no update on Kattus’s status after Thursday’s practice. The fact that Kattus made the trip to Nashville but did not dress out at least suggests he was close to playing a week ago.

The status of left guard Kenneth Horsey is more murky. Horsey has missed the last three games with a leg injury. He was not included on the travel roster for the Vanderbilt game and was still missing from the pre-Florida depth chart Monday. At the time of Horsey’s injury, Stoops said the super senior was expected to miss “at least a couple of weeks,” so he could be nearing a return. Asked about Horsey’s status Thursday, Stoops said, “We’ll see.”

Final predictions

Kentucky 24, Florida 21

Finally, we get to see Kentucky tested against a ranked team. While the Wildcats’ 31-game losing streak to Florida is still on the minds of many fans, it is clear players view that as an era of the past. With two consecutive wins and three in the last five games of the series, confidence should not be a problem for the Wildcats. The home crowd and Kentucky’s propensity to play to the level of its competition make this feel like an opportunity for a statement performance.

MVP: J.J. Weaver

I’m going out on a limb with this one as Weaver has largely disappointed through four games, but Florida tends to bring the best out of the outside linebacker who was born in Fort Lauderdale. Weaver had six tackles against Florida in 2020 before tearing his ACL in that game. He grabbed an interception against the Gators in 2021. Last season, he tallied a career-high nine tackles in the Wildcats’ win in Gainesville. If this is the week Weaver starts to live up to his preseason hype, Kentucky’s chances of winning increase substantially.

The last word

UK wide receiver Dane Key on the history of the Kentucky-Florida series.

“I’m undefeated against Florida, so I don’t really pay attention to what it used to be. I’m on the team now. There’s a lot of other guys on this team now, so we’re going out there with the mindset we can play in this game and it doesn’t matter what happened in the years before. It’s 2023.”

Looking to bet on Kentucky vs. Florida football? Here are five to consider.

This Wildcat has gone from UK football’s biggest question to one of its best surprises

A year after breakout vs. Florida, UK football wide receiver Dane Key showing progress

Revisiting Kentucky’s decision to pursue Devin Leary over Florida QB Graham Mertz

How Deion Sanders helped spark a big UK football play in the win at Vanderbilt