Kentucky football preview: How Mark Stoops, Wildcats can live up to preseason hype

Mark Stoops has a new challenge facing his Kentucky football program.

For the first time since 1978, the Wildcats are ranked in the preseason Associated Press Top 25. Reporters have picked the Wildcats to finish second in the SEC East, behind only defending national champion Georgia. Quarterback Will Levis is being hyped as a possible first-round NFL Draft pick and dark horse Heisman Trophy contender.

But the last time Kentucky entered a season ranked offers proof preseason hype is no guarantee of in-season success.

The 1978 Wildcats won just one of their first four games, dropping out of the AP poll entirely. They finished the season at 4-6-1.

Kentucky has only gone wire-to-wire in the AP poll twice in program history, most recently in 1951. The journey to the current Wildcats joining that elite club starts with Levis living up to his lofty expectations, but it also relies on a number of underclassmen shining in their first chance at featured roles.

For his team to live up to its preseason hype, Stoops must find new motivational tools after years of his players thriving off being doubted by outsiders.

“I think it’s easier to motivate as an underdog than it is as a favorite,” former Kentucky coach Rich Brooks recently told the Herald-Leader.

Stoops insists overconfidence will not be a problem for his team even as players acknowledged they can not drown out all the positive reviews entirely. Kentucky’s coach has pointed to improvements needed at multiple positions during preseason practices as proof there is plenty of work to do.

Perhaps the public feud resulting from John Calipari calling UK a basketball school provided Stoops and his coaching staff an opportunity to play the disrespect card once again. Or maybe proving worthy of lofty preseason expectations represents motivation of its own.

Either way, Kentucky has bigger goals ahead.

“I’ve said this many times when we weren’t ranked: I’d rather see where we’re at at the end of the year,” Stoops said. “That’s still the same. I want to be ranked much higher than we are right now at the end of the season.”

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THE TEAM

Key losses: Levis must find a new go-to receiver after Wan’Dale Robinson, who broke UK’s record for catches and receiving yards in a single season in his one year as a Wildcat, moved on to the NFL. The Wildcats’ second and third most productive receivers, Josh Ali and Isaiah Epps, are gone as well. Kentucky must replace three starters along the offensive line, including All-American Darian Kinnard, a fifth-round pick by the Kansas City Chiefs, and Jacksonville Jaguars third-round pick Luke Fortner.

On defense, three players who started at least eight games last season on the defensive line are gone. The biggest hole is left by defensive end Josh Paschal, a three-year captain and second-round pick of the Detroit Lions, but nose guard Marquan McCall and defensive tackle Abule Abadi-Fitzgerald also were important pieces in the line rotation. Four defensive backs who played significant snaps have moved on, led by three-year starting safety Yusuf Corker. Starting cornerback Cedrick Dort transferred to Wisconsin.

Rising star: Outside linebacker J.J. Weaver returned ahead of schedule from a torn ACL a year ago, but Weaver and coaches agree he was still limited by the injury despite totaling 10 tackles for loss and six sacks in 12 games. Weaver is no longer playing with the large knee brace he used last season, and the Louisville native appears poised to make a leap to become one of the best pass rushers in the SEC.

“I’m not going to shy away and he will not shy away from understanding that we need him to take that next step and be a guy,” defensive coordinator Brad White said. “He has got to be a difference-maker for us on defense.”

Biggest area of concern: The Wildcats left spring practice with two obvious question marks on the depth chart: offensive tackle and cornerback. Stoops alleviated some of the concerns at cornerback by adding former Ole Miss starter Keidron Smith as a transfer this summer, but midway through preseason camp the left tackle position remained a concern. Four of the five starters appear locked on the offensive line, but at least one of Deondre Buford, David Wohlabaugh and former five-star recruit Kiyaunta Goodwin needs to step up at left tackle. Offensive line play in general is an area to watch as new coordinator Rich Scangarello and offensive line coach Zach Yenser implement the outside zone rushing scheme they favored with the San Francisco 49ers.

Most important unit: Of course, Levis is the most important player on the roster, especially with no clear No. 2 quarterback emerging as of yet, but assuming Levis is healthy and is able to live up to his individual hype, tight end is the position to watch. Scangarello has raved about the depth of the group, predicting as many as five tight ends on the roster could one day play in the NFL. With Kentucky needing to rely on multiple freshmen at wide receiver, the tight ends could emerge as an important safety net for Levis in the passing game. Their versatility should allow Scangarello to give defenses fits with creative formations, too.

THE SCHEDULE

Toughest opponent: Kentucky is part of a group of up to five SEC East teams that have an argument to be ranked second in the division heading into the season, but the gap between Georgia and the rest of the East still looks large. The Bulldogs are easily the most difficult matchup for Kentucky on the schedule. The good news is the game will be played in Lexington this year, but the Wildcats must first take care of business against the rest of the schedule if they want the league finale vs. Georgia to impact the SEC East race. Kentucky has lost 12 straight to Georgia.

Must-win games: To have a chance at a New Year’s Six bowl game, Kentucky must run the table in its four nonconference games. Home games against Vanderbilt, Mississippi State and South Carolina fall into the same category if the Wildcats are serious about contending in the SEC East. A New Year’s Six Bowl game could still be on the table even with a loss to Georgia, but probably only if Kentucky wins at least three of the road games at Florida, Ole Miss, Tennessee and Missouri.

Toughest road trip: The early trip to Gainesville will present a difficult challenge, especially if star running back Chris Rodriguez is suspended, but the Gators could still be finding their footing in the first year of the Billy Napier era. That leaves Ole Miss or Tennessee as the toughest road trip on the schedule. We’ll pick Tennessee considering the Volunteers look like the biggest threat to Kentucky maintaining its second spot in the East pecking order.

Games that will pack the house: If Kentucky is as good as expected, the Wildcats should sell out most of their home SEC games, but the Nov. 19 game against Georgia could be the most-hyped game in the history of the facility formerly known as Commonwealth Stadium if the East title is on the line. The return of the Governor’s Cup rivalry to Kroger Field for the first time since 2019 will be a fun way to end the regular season.

Upset special: Maybe for the first time in the post-Bear Bryant era of Kentucky football, it’s hard to look at the schedule and find multiple games where the Wildcats will be a heavy underdog. Georgia still qualifies, but the gap there makes it difficult to predict an upset. Kentucky could be a slight underdog in three of its four road games. With the Oct. 1 game at Ole Miss possibly being a matchup of ranked teams, the prediction here is Kentucky seizes the chance to gain some more national respect. This time, the Wildcats will make sure to cover all of the Rebels’ receivers, unlike the heartbreaking 42-41 overtime loss in Lexington two years ago.

Best visitors: As normal in years Georgia plays in Lexington, fans should look to the Bulldogs’ defense for the best NFL Draft prospects visiting Kroger Field. Defensive tackle Jalen Carter, linebacker Nolan Smith and cornerback Kelee Ringo are among the top 12 2023 draft prospects entering the season, according to ESPN analyst Todd McShay. Bulldogs tight ends Arik Gilbert and Brock Bowers look like future NFL stars. South Carolina cornerback Cam Smith, Georgia running back Kenny McIntosh and Georgia center Sedrick Van Pran are also on McShay’s top-50 preseason draft prospects list. Mississippi State quarterback Will Rogers led the SEC in passing yards per game last season.

Bowl outlook: If Kentucky is a serious SEC East contender, no bowl is out of reach. Winning the division would almost assuredly put the Wildcats in College Football Playoff contention. Even if Georgia wins the division as expected, Kentucky could play in its most prestigious bowl since at least the 1976 Peach Bowl.

With Alabama and Georgia both ranked in the top three of the preseason AP poll, Kentucky can hope for two SEC teams to reach the playoff. That would leave the SEC’s guaranteed spot in the Sugar Bowl available for the next-highest-ranked SEC team in the final CFP poll. The highest-ranked available team from the SEC, Big Ten or Notre Dame after the Sugar and Rose bowls are filled will play in the Orange Bowl. One at-large spot for the highest-ranked team among any conference after the Sugar, Rose and Orange bowls are filled will be available in the Cotton Bowl to likely face the highest-ranked Group of Five conference program.

After the New Year’s Six bowl games are filled, the Citrus Bowl gets first pick of the remaining SEC teams. It is unlikely that Kentucky will play there for the second season in a row, unless there is a significant gap between the Wildcats and the rest of the available SEC teams when that pick is made. From there, the top target for Kentucky would likely be the ReliaQuest Bowl (formerly known as the Outback Bowl) to be played in Tampa, Florida, on Jan. 2.

In a worst-case scenario where Kentucky fails to live up to expectations and falls behind multiple other SEC East teams, it will likely find itself in the “Pool of Six” bowl group again. The ReliaQuest Bowl is in that group but retains more prestige because of its location, matchup and date. The Music City, Gator, Texas, Liberty and Las Vegas bowls are the other options in the pool. Kentucky might prefer the Las Vegas Bowl from that group to give its team and fans a new trip.

Big Blue Meter

The 2022 season is a success if: Kentucky finishes the season ranked in the top 25. Yes, the goal is to win the East, but it would still ignore too much history to call a season in which Kentucky falls short of that goal but wins enough games to be ranked in the final polls a disappointment. Depending on where the other SEC teams slot in the final CFP poll, Kentucky could be ranked and still playing in a mid-tier bowl. That might sting, but UK has been ranked in the final AP poll just 10 times in program history.

The 2022 season is a disappointment if: The Wildcats win eight or fewer games. Only two eight-win teams were included in the final CFP poll a year ago. While both were from the SEC, they came from the West Division. Kentucky’s schedule makes it difficult to imagine a scenario where an 8-4 Wildcats squad is ranked entering bowl season. Losing any non-conference game would be a major disappointment, but matching the nine regular-season wins from 2018 and 2021 has to still be considered a success regardless of how Kentucky gets to that total.

Kentucky’s 2022 football schedule

Home games in all capital letters. Remaining kickoff times to be announced later.

Sept. 3: MIAMI (OHIO), 7 p.m.

Sept. 10: At Florida, 7 p.m.

Sept. 17: YOUNGSTOWN STATE, Noon

Sept. 24: NORTHERN ILLINOIS

Oct. 1: At Mississippi

Oct. 8: SOUTH CAROLINA

Oct. 15: MISSISSIPPI STATE

Oct. 22: Off week

Oct. 29: At Tennessee

Nov. 5: At Missouri

Nov. 12: VANDERBILT

Nov. 19: GEORGIA

Nov. 26: LOUISVILLE