How Kentucky football and No. 10 Louisville match up — with a game prediction
How the Kentucky Wildcats (6-5, 3-5 SEC) and the No. 10 Louisville Cardinals (10-1, 7-1 ACC) match up at each position — with a game prediction:
Quarterbacks
▪ Kentucky’s Devin Leary (2,234 passing yards, 56.4% completions, 20 touchdowns, nine interceptions) has not played well this season in road games. In four previous games away from Kroger Field, Leary is completing only 49.55 percent of his throws for an average of 165 yards. The North Carolina State transfer has made two previous starts vs. U of L. In a 34-20 loss to the Cardinals in Raleigh in 2019, Leary completed 24 of 44 passes for 243 yards with two TDs vs. one pick. Two years later, Leary directed N.C. State to a 28-13 victory over Louisville while completing 25 of 36 passes for 317 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions.
▪ Louisville’s Jack Plummer (2,710 passing yards, 65.4% completions, 19 touchdowns, 10 interceptions) had his third 300-plus-yards passing game of the season last week in a big spot. The 6-5, 220-pound Plummer threw for 308 yards with three touchdowns vs. one interception in leading U of L to a 38-31 win at Miami that secured the Cardinals’ place in the ACC championship game for the first time. Plummer transferred to Louisville from California, but spent his first three college seasons playing for Jeff Brohm at Purdue. “He has a good feel for the (Brohm offensive) system,” Kentucky coach Mark Stoops said of Plummer. “... He looks very comfortable back there.”
Advantage: Louisville.
Running backs
▪ After a rousing start to the 2023 season, Kentucky star Ray Davis (990 rushing yards, 5.8 yards a carry, 12 touchdowns; 25 receptions, 266 yards, five TDs) has had a tougher go in the back half of the schedule. The 5-10, 216-pound transfer from Vanderbilt has averaged only 52.25 yards a game rushing over the past four contests. Given late-season opportunity, super-senior Ramon Jefferson has provided UK a boost. The 5-10, 210-pound product of the Bronx, New York, ran for 50 yards on only six carries last week at South Carolina.
▪ Louisville’s Jawhar Jordan is 22nd in the FBS in rushing with 1,009 yards. On the season, the 5-foot-10, 185-pound redshirt junior is averaging a 6.7 yards a carry and has scored 11 touchdowns. A transfer from Syracuse, Jordan ran for 145 yards on 22 carries for U of L against Kentucky last season in the Cardinals’ 26-13 loss to the Wildcats in Lexington. Wisconsin transfer Isaac Guerendo (585 rushing yards, 6.4 ypc, eight TDs) was a big part of U of L’s win at Miami, carrying 15 times for 93 yards and a TD.
Advantage: Louisville.
Wide receivers
▪ Kentucky sophomore Dane Key (36 catches, 528 yards, four touchdowns) has come on strong in the second half of the season. The ex-Frederick Douglass High School star has 19 catches in UK’s past four games, though he did lose a costly fumble at South Carolina. Super-senior slot receiver Tayvion Robinson (36 catches, 501 yards, four TDs) had three catches for 29 yards last week in the loss at South Carolina. Sophomore Barion Brown (team-high 38 catches, 391 yards, three TDs) was targeted 11 times last week vs. the Gamecocks. Those 11 targets yielded four catches for 30 yards and a touchdown.
▪ A transfer from Georgia State, Louisville’s Jamari Thrash (50 catches, 741 yards, six touchdowns) has proven one of the best additions from the portal anywhere in college football. The 6-1, 185-pound product of LaGrange, Georgia, has been slowed late in the season, however, by a reported wrist injury. Chris Bell (23 catches, 365 yards, two TDs) had a team-high four catches for 58 yards at Miami. Kevin Coleman (21 catches, 292 yards, two TDs) had the touchdown catch that put U of L into the ACC championship game, a 58-yard game-winner at Miami.
Advantage: Louisville.
Tight ends
▪ An injury that sidelined Kentucky’s Jordan Dingle (11 catches, 198 yards) at South Carolina allowed ex-Male High School star Izayah Cummings a larger role — and he made it count. The 6-3, 232-pound senior caught three passes for 43 yards and also did some good blocking along the edges. Sophomore Josh Kattus (eight catches, 108 yards, two TDs) is an aggressive blocker who has had some costly holding penalties this season. Super-senior Brenden Bates (three catches, 79 yards) will play his final regular-season game as a Wildcat.
▪ Louisville redshirt freshman Nate Kurisky (12 catches, 108 yards, two touchdowns) had a huge game at Miami. The 6-3, 235-pound Washington, D.C., product caught five passes for 50 yards and a touchdown in the win over the Hurricanes. Senior Josh Lifson has six catches for 59 yards.
Advantage: Even.
Offensive line
▪ Kentucky right tackle Jeremy Flax has been one of the few UK offensive players whose 2023 performance has exceeded preseason expectations. The 6-6, 325-pound Detroit product will play his final regular-season game for UK this week. The same is true of super-senior Kenneth Horsey, a multi-year starter at left guard.
▪ Former Scott County standout Bryan Hudson, a 6-5, 305-pound redshirt senior, anchors the U of L offensive front from the center position. The Cardinals’ offensive line, which starts three redshirt seniors, has given up 20 sacks (UK has given up 18) and blocked for a rushing attack averaging 4.97 (UK is rushing for 5.1) yards a carry.
Advantage: Even.
Defensive line
▪ In defeat at South Carolina, Kentucky star sophomore defensive tackle Deone Walker turned in a tremendous individual performance. The 6-6, 348-pound Detroit product, had a team-high nine tackles, eight of them solo, and was credited with two tackles for loss, a sack and a quarterback hurry. This week, Walker spiced up the Governor’s Cup rivalry by saying of Louisville, “I just don’t like the Cardinals. Their fans are kind of snobbish. Their players act entitled. A lot of pent-up aggression toward them.”
▪ Louisville defensive end Ashton Gillotte has played at an All-America level. The 6-3, 270-pound product of Boca Raton, Florida, has made 39 tackles, 13 tackles for loss, 10 sacks, five quarterback hurries and has forced three fumbles while recovering one. With five TFL and three sacks, tackle Ramon Puryear, a product of Louisville’s Eastern High School, has also played downhill this season.
Advantage: Louisville.
Linebackers
▪ Kentucky OLB/rush end J.J. Weaver, a Moore High School product, will get a final appearance in his hometown. The 6-5, 244-pound redshirt senior has a history of making big plays against U of L. He recovered a fumble that set up a UK field goal in last season’s Kentucky win over Louisville and he intercepted a pass against the Cards in UK’s 52-21 victory at Louisville in 2021. MLB D’Eryk Jackson had eight tackles, a TFL and a pass defended in the loss at South Carolina last week.
▪ Louisville WLB T.J. Quinn has made a team-high 74 tackles and has four QB hurries, two pass breakups and an interception. At OLB/rush end, former Trinity High School star and ex-Stanford Cardinal Stephen Herron has 26 tackles, six hurries and 2.5 TFL.
Advantage: Even.
Defensive backs
▪ Kentucky cornerback Maxwell Hairston is tied for second in the FBS with five interceptions, has broken up five passes and is second on the UK team with 60 tackles. After intercepting a pass two weeks ago vs. Alabama, free safety Jordan Lovett made five tackles last week at South Carolina. Overall, UK has struggled in pass defense, standing 90th in the FBS in passing yards allowed at 238.2.
▪ Louisville safety Devin Neal, a former Frederick Douglass High School standout, has had a stellar first season at U of L since transferring from Baylor. The 6-foot, 210-pound junior is tied for second on the team in tackles with 59 and has four interceptions, six pass breakups, three tackles for loss and a fumble recovery. Louisville is 55th in the FBS against the pass, surrendering 219 yards a game.
Advantage: Louisville.
Special teams
▪ Kentucky place-kicker Alex Raynor, a Georgia Southern transfer, is 9-of-10 on field-goal attempts with a long of 50 yards. Punter Wilson Berry (40.5 yards a kick average) has pinned foes inside their 20-yard line 11 times on 46 kicks. In what has been a difficult second half of the season for Berry, the Australian had a good performance at South Carolina, averaging 45.8 yards on five punts.
▪ After Brock Travelstead (14-of-21 on field goals with a long of 53; average of 39.65 yards a punt) handled both the place-kicking and the punting for Louisville for most of this season, the Cardinals have changed things up late in the year. In the win at Miami, Brady Hodges punted four times for a 44.3 yards average. On the season, Hodges is averaging 44.27 yards on 15 kicks. After Travelstead missed a 24-yard field last week, Jeff Brohm turned to Nick Lopez and he successfully booted a 40-yard field goal in the third quarter. Maurice Turner had a 50-yard kickoff return at Miami.
Advantage: Even.
Prediction
Louisville 34, Kentucky 24.
What’s the proudest moment in UK sports history? Here’s Mark Story’s top 10.
What impact will Texas and Oklahoma moving to the SEC have on UK? It’s complicated.
Kentucky’s past with Oklahoma and Texas has included both triumph and heartache
How Oklahoma and Texas rank vs. the current SEC schools in sports and academics
In spending on sports, how Oklahoma and Texas match up with the current SEC members
