How Kentucky football can exceed preseason bowl projections to reach the Sugar Bowl

When the tip-off time for the annual Kentucky-Louisville basketball rivalry game was announced last week, an unusual concern quickly became apparent.

The New Year’s Eve basketball game will tip off at noon in Lexington. At that same time, the Sugar Bowl, which includes an automatic bid for the highest-ranked SEC football team outside the College Football Playoff, will kick off in New Orleans.

UK football has played in the Sugar Bowl just once (1951). Considering the Wildcats have only played in any of the current New Year’s Six bowl games — the most prestigious active bowls — five times in program history, in most years the potential conflict would be of little concern.

But this is not most years for Kentucky football.

Mark Stoops’ squad has dreams of challenging for the SEC East title. Even if it falls short of catching Georgia for a berth in the SEC championship game, there are realistic scenarios where Kentucky could be in contention for the Sugar Bowl spot by cashing in on its preseason hype.

Will Levis could become the second quarterback to lead Kentucky to the Sugar Bowl, joining Babe Parilli.

Bowl projections are not yet sold on that possibility with pundits projecting Kentucky to land outside the New Year’s Six games despite its preseason ranking in both major polls.

▪ ESPN: Citrus Bowl

▪ The Athletic: Music City Bowl

▪ CBSSports: Music City Bowl

▪ USA Today: Liberty Bowl

▪ Brett McMurphy: ReliaQuest Bowl

So, how can the Wildcats force fans to pick between the Sugar Bowl and the basketball rivalry game? Here is a look at the various bowl scenarios for the Wildcats.

College Football Playoff (Peach and Fiesta)

Every team technically starts the season with a path to the playoff. Since the playoff’s inception, Kentucky has fallen into the large group of teams where that path is only a faint dream though. This year, there is at least reason to explore the scenario.

UK is ranked 20th in the preseason AP poll with only two other ranked teams on the schedule: No. 3 Georgia and No. 21 Ole Miss. To make the playoff, Kentucky would almost certainly have to run the table in the regular season. Beating the SEC West champion in Atlanta would lock UK into the playoff, but even a close loss there might be enough for a 12-1 UK team to squeak into the playoff if the rest of the SEC East shows enough improvement to boost the strength of schedule.

Sugar Bowl

If you assume the gap between Georgia and the rest of the SEC East remains sizable, the playoff is probably out of reach for Kentucky. However, if Georgia and No. 1 Alabama both reach the playoff, the Sugar Bowl opens up for an SEC team that did not win its division. That spot will be filled by the next-highest-ranked SEC team in the final CFP committee poll. No. 6 Texas A&M looks like the favorite to play in New Orleans as of now in that scenario, but if the West Division teams beat up on each other, Kentucky could move to the third spot in the SEC pecking order by winning the games it is projected to be favored in.

Kentucky would need at least 10 regular-season wins for a realistic chance at the Sugar Bowl. Even then, where the losses come would matter. A loss at Ole Miss could be problematic if the Rebels are one of the other teams in contention for that spot.

Orange Bowl

After the SEC’s spot in the Sugar Bowl is filled, there are two more opportunities for an SEC team to play in a New Year’s Six game. Neither is guaranteed, but the Orange Bowl spot opposite the ACC’s contracted bid goes to the highest ranked available team from the SEC, the Big Ten or Notre Dame. With Notre Dame ranked fifth and four Big Ten teams ranked ahead of Kentucky in the preseason poll, the Wildcats probably need at least 10 wins to be in contention for the Orange Bowl, too.

Cotton Bowl

Technically, two at-large spots are available in the Cotton Bowl for teams from any league, but one is almost certain to go to the highest-ranked Group of Five conference team in the final CFP poll. Unless there is a Group of Five team in the playoff, the Cotton Bowl is the only available landing spot for the guaranteed bid reserved for those conferences in a New Year’s Six bowl.

The second Cotton Bowl bid will be filled by the CFP committee with the highest-ranked available team remaining after the five other New Year’s Six bowls are filled. This team will be ranked no lower than 12th in the final CFP poll. Depending on how many of the league-contracted bowl bids come from outside the top 12, the final at-large team could need to be ranked even higher. Nine wins have occasionally been enough to reach the top 12 in the final CFP poll, but since Kentucky was ranked 14th in 2018 and 22nd in 2021 with nine wins, 10 looks like the more reasonable threshold for the Wildcats.

Citrus Bowl

The Citrus Bowl has first pick of available SEC teams after the New Year’s Six bowls are filled. Most years, that invitation is extended to the highest ranked available team, but that is not required. Since Kentucky has played in this game twice in the last four years, including last season, the Citrus Bowl would probably pick a different SEC team unless there was a significant gap between the Wildcats and the other available SEC teams.

Pool of Six

After the Citrus Bowl makes its pick, the SEC league office works with schools and bowls to assign teams to the ReliaQuest, Gator, Music City, Las Vegas, Texas and Liberty bowls. The preferences of teams and bowls are taken into consideration, but the league works to avoid repeat matchups and trips when assigning teams to these games. If Kentucky is on the board here, the Wildcats’ top pick would almost certainly be the ReliaQuest Bowl (formerly known as the Outback Bowl) because of its status as a Florida bowl traditionally played on New Year’s Day. (The game is on Jan. 2 this season to avoid conflicts with the NFL schedule)

The Music City Bowl remains a popular pick for Kentucky among bowl projections thanks to the Wildcats’ extensive history sending big crowds to Nashville, but that game is also scheduled for noon on New Year’s Eve. It is unlikely Kentucky would prefer a return trip to a game it has played in five times already that also conflicts with the Louisville basketball rivalry game. If Kentucky is not sent to the ReliaQuest Bowl, the Las Vegas Bowl might make sense thanks to the opportunity to provide a new trip for players and fans. Kentucky has never played in the Texas Bowl either, but it is also possible any of these games would be viewed as a disappointment by fans after such lofty preseason expectations.