Kentucky Derby Watch 2023: A look at the top 10 contenders, including Baffert horses

Cameron Drummond

Less than three months remain until the 149th running of the Kentucky Derby on May 6 at Churchill Downs in Louisville, and a strong field of top contenders has already begun to form.

A total of 26 Kentucky Derby qualifying races have already been run, with 20 as part of the American road to the Derby, four as part of the European road and two as part of the Japanese road.

The American leaderboard is headlined by the Todd Pletcher-trained Forte (40 points) and the Brad Cox-trained Instant Coffee (32).

The European leaderboard is topped by four horses — Belbek (France), Auguste Rodin (Ireland), The Foxes (Ireland) and Crypto Force (Great Britain) — all with 10 points.

The Japanese leaderboard is paced by Derma Sotogake (Japan) with 20 points.

But as was the case last year, the road to the Kentucky Derby has been marred by the presence of trainer Bob Baffert, who is still suspended from Churchill Downs. Baffert’s horses are ineligible to earn Kentucky Derby qualifying points.

That hasn’t stopped Baffert from entering horses in Kentucky Derby qualifying races this season, essentially negating the qualifying points offered in those races when Baffert’s horses finish near the front.

For example, the Robert B. Lewis Stakes this month awarded none of the 40 qualifying points that were set to be on the line because Baffert was the trainer of record for all four horses in the field.

Currently, for any of Baffert’s horses to be able to earn qualifying points toward the Kentucky Derby, the horse must be transferred to an eligible trainer by the end of February.

But, the fact that none of Baffert’s horses own any qualifying points toward the 2023 Kentucky Derby hasn’t affected popular opinion of which horses are currently top contenders.

According to Caesars Sportsbook as of Monday, the favorite to win this year’s Kentucky Derby is Arabian Knight (a Baffert horse that won the Southwest Stakes in late January) at 6-1.

Here’s a quick look at 10 of the top Kentucky Derby contenders so far (sorted in alphabetical order), and what they’ve accomplished during prep race season.

Two-time Triple Crown-winning trainer Bob Baffert is awaiting a ruling on his appeal of a suspension from Churchill Downs. If the six-time Kentucky Derby winner does not receive relief, owners of horses he trains will have to transfer them to other conditioners to get them into the 2023 Run for the Roses.
Two-time Triple Crown-winning trainer Bob Baffert is awaiting a ruling on his appeal of a suspension from Churchill Downs. If the six-time Kentucky Derby winner does not receive relief, owners of horses he trains will have to transfer them to other conditioners to get them into the 2023 Run for the Roses.

Arabian Knight

Caesars odds: 6-1.

Current Kentucky Derby qualifying points: 0.

Performance: First in alphabetical order and first in Monday’s odds update from Caesars Sportsbook, the Baffert-trained Arabian Knight continues to be a consensus Derby favorite.

Arabian Knight has won both of his career starts: A maiden special weight race at Keeneland in early November and the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park in late January.

He won that Southwest Stakes appearance by 5 1/2 lengths. Earlier this week, Arabian Knight recorded a 3-furlong breeze at Santa Anita Park in California, where he is expected to run his next race.

Trainer: Bob Baffert.

Owner: Zedan Racing Stables, Inc.

Family ties: Sired by Uncle Mo, who won five of eight career starts and was an early favorite to win the 2011 Kentucky Derby before missing the race due to illness.

Bob Baffert-trained Arabian Knight has won both of his career starts, including the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park last month, but cannot start amassing qualifying points for the Kentucky Derby unless his owner transfers him to a different trainer by the end of this month. Baffert is awaiting a ruling on his appeal of a suspension from Churchill Downs.

Blazing Sevens

Caesars odds: 32-1.

Current Kentucky Derby qualifying points: 16 (seventh on leaderboard).

Performance: A winner in two of four career starts, Blazing Sevens won the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes in October and most recently ran fourth in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Keeneland in November.

Blazing Sevens is being pointed toward the Fountain of Youth Stakes, a key Kentucky Derby prep race in early March at Gulfstream Park. The winner of that race will receive 50 qualifying points toward the Kentucky Derby.

Trainer: Chad Brown.

Owner: Rodeo Creek Racing, LLC.

Family ties: Sired by Good Magic, who finished second to Justify in the 2018 Kentucky Derby and who also ran fourth in that year’s Preakness Stakes.

Cave Rock

Caesars odds: 12-1.

Current Kentucky Derby qualifying points: 0.

Performance: Cave Rock has finished first or second in all four of his career starts: Three wins and one place.

This impressive record has come in major races as well. Cave Rock has a pair of Grade 1 wins to his name in the Del Mar Futurity in September and the American Pharoah Stakes at Santa Anita in October. He was second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Keeneland in November.

Cave Rock went 4 furlongs in 47.80 seconds in a breeze this week at Santa Anita.

Trainer: Bob Baffert.

Owner: Michael Pegram, Karl Watson, Paul Weitman.

Family ties: Sired by Arrogate, who won the 2016 Breeders’ Cup Classic.

Faustin

Caesars odds: 20-1.

Current Kentucky Derby qualifying points: 0.

Performance: Lightly raced with only two career starts, Faustin ran second in the Grade 2 San Vincente Stakes at Santa Anita in late January.

There’s a decent chance Faustin becomes one of the easy-to-spot gray horses in this year’s Derby field.

Not since Giacomo, as a 50-1 long shot in 2005, has a gray horse won the Kentucky Derby.

Trainer: Bob Baffert.

Owner: Michael Lund Petersen.

Family ties: Sired by Curlin, the legendary winner of the 2007 Arkansas Derby, Preakness Stakes and Breeders’ Cup Classic.

Forte

Caesars odds: 9-1.

Current Kentucky Derby qualifying points: 40 (first on leaderboard).

Performance: Atop the American Kentucky Derby qualification leaderboard right now, Forte has four wins in five career starts, including three in a row.

The last two wins both came in Grade 1 Derby prep races at Keeneland: The Breeders’ Futurity in October and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in November.

There is minimal, yet prestigious, precedent for what Forte is aiming to do: Only Street Sense (2007) and Nyquist (2016) have won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and the Kentucky Derby before.

Forte is expected to return to action in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, a key Kentucky Derby prep race in early March at Gulfstream Park. The winner of that race will receive 50 qualifying points toward the Kentucky Derby.

Trainer: Todd Pletcher.

Owner: Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable.

Family ties: Sired by Violence, who won three of four career starts from August 2012 to February 2013.

Forte, winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Keeneland last fall, continues to top the Kentucky Derby qualifying points leaderboard off the strength of that victory. Watch for his return to the track March 4 in the Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park.
Forte, winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Keeneland last fall, continues to top the Kentucky Derby qualifying points leaderboard off the strength of that victory. Watch for his return to the track March 4 in the Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park.

Hit Show

Caesars odds: 40-1.

Current Kentucky Derby qualifying points: 20 (fourth on leaderboard).

Performance: Hit Show burst onto the Kentucky Derby contender scene last weekend with his first stakes win in the Grade 3 Withers Stakes at Aqueduct in New York.

The Brad Cox trainee triumphed by 5 1/2 lengths on Saturday and is expected to run again at Aqueduct in early April in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial, which will offer 200 Kentucky Derby qualifying points dispersed among the race’s top five finishers.

Trainer: Brad Cox.

Owner: Gary and Mary West.

Family ties: Sired by Candy Ride, a 6-for-6 winner from August 2002 to August 2003.

Hoosier Philly (filly)

Caesars odds: 25-1.

Current Kentucky Derby qualifying points: 0.

Performance: Let’s toss some love to the only filly currently appearing on the Caesars Sportsbook odds list to win the 2023 Kentucky Derby.

Hoosier Philly is a career 3-for-3 winner, with all three of her triumphs coming at Churchill Downs.

Her most recent win came in the Grade 2 Golden Rod Stakes in late November. She’s expected to make her 3-year-old season debut this Saturday in the Grade 2 Rachel Alexandra Stakes at Fair Grounds in New Orleans.

Trainer: Tom Amoss.

Owner: Gold Standard Racing Stable, LLC.

Family ties: Sired by Into Mischief, who finished second or better in all six career starts from October 2007 to December 2008.

Instant Coffee

Caesars odds: 16-1.

Current Kentucky Derby qualifying points: 32 (second on leaderboard).

Performance: A winner in three of four career starts including the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs in November and the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds in January, Instant Coffee is probably trainer Brad Cox’s most accomplished Kentucky Derby contender this season.

This closer won the Lecomte by 2 1/2 lengths and is expected to go again at Fair Grounds in late March in the prestigious Louisiana Derby.

Trainer: Brad Cox.

Owner: Gold Square LLC.

Family ties: Sired by Bolt d’Oro, who ran 12th in the 2018 Kentucky Derby.

Tapit Trice

Caesars odds: 16-1.

Current Kentucky Derby qualifying points: 0.

Performance: Tapit Trice has finished in the money in all three career starts, although none have been in a graded stakes and the competition has been substandard.

When he’s won, he’s been impressive: He most recently claimed victory by 8 lengths in an allowance optional claiming race this month at Gulfstream Park.

Next up will be a proper Kentucky Derby test: Either the Fountain of Youth or the Tampa Bay Derby, both of which are run in March.

Trainer: Todd Pletcher.

Owner: Whisper Hill Farm and Gainesway Stable.

Family ties: Sired by Tapit, who finished ninth in the 2004 Kentucky Derby.

Victory Formation

Caesars odds: 26-1.

Current Kentucky Derby qualifying points: 10 (11th on leaderboard).

Performance: A 3-for-3 winner whose best triumph came in the listed Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn Park on New Year’s Day, Victory Formation will get a big test Saturday in this weekend’s only American Kentucky Derby prep race: The Grade 2 Risen Star at Fair Grounds.

The morning-line favorite for the race, Victory Formation will be in post No. 13 for the 14-horse race, which could complicate his trip.

Trainer: Brad Cox.

Owner: Spendthrift Farm LLC and Frank Fletcher Racing Operations, Inc.

Family ties: Sired by Tapwrit, who won the 2017 Belmont Stakes and was sixth in that year’s Kentucky Derby.

The undefeated Victory Formation will make his graded stakes debut Saturday in the $400,000, Grade 2 Risen Star at Fair Grounds in New Orleans. A field of 14 is entered for the 1 1/8-mile Kentucky Derby prep race.
The undefeated Victory Formation will make his graded stakes debut Saturday in the $400,000, Grade 2 Risen Star at Fair Grounds in New Orleans. A field of 14 is entered for the 1 1/8-mile Kentucky Derby prep race.

Saturday

Risen Star Stakes

What: Kentucky Derby qualifying points race (50-20-15-10-5)

Where: Fair Grounds Race Course in New Orleans

When: 7:14 p.m. EST

TV: FanDuel TV

Distance: 1 1/8 miles

Purse: $400,000 (Grade 2)

Favorite: Victory Formation (3-1)

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