Kentucky Derby 2024: Post positions, odds, analysis, as historic Run for the Roses looms

The 150th Kentucky Derby is a week away, and the excitement is beginning to ramp up for the first leg of the Triple Crown.

While there are some solid contenders in the field, upsets dominated the narrative the last two years with Rich Strike and Mage pulling off stunning wins at Churchill Downs.

The 1 1/4-mile test will be run next Saturday, May 4, with post time set for approximately 6:57 p.m., with 20 contenders loaded into the starting gate for the $5 million race.

The post position draw is set for 7:15 p.m. Saturday (tonight), so check back later for complete coverage. For now, here are the 20 3-year-olds expected to run, listed in order of qualifying points earned, from most to least:

Sierra Leone

Trainer: Chad Brown.

Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione.

Owner: Mrs. John Magnier & others.

Picked up the most Kentucky Derby qualifying points and the $2.3 million yearling purchase could go postward as the favorite, having come from far back to win the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on April 6, after capturing the Grade 2 Risen Star at Fair Grounds.

Fierceness

Trainer: Todd Pletcher.

Jockey: John Velazquez.

Owner: Repole Stable.

Comes in second in qualifying points, has $1.7 million in earnings and owns the best performance of the year, earning a gaudy 110 Beyer Speed Figure for a 13 ½-length win in the Grade 1 Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park on March 30. That after winning last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.

Catching Freedom

Trainer: Brad Cox.

Jockey: Flavien Prat.

Owner: Albaugh Family Stable.

This closer looms as a serious threat if there’s improvement off his last effort, earning a 97 Beyer Speed Figure in an April 23 victory in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds, and was third, beaten less than two lengths, by Sierra Leone in the Risen Star.

Stonghold

Trainer: Phillip D’Amato.

Jockey: Antonio Fresu

Owner: Eric & Sharon Waller.

The West Coast contender – trainer Bob Baffert is banned by Churchill Downs – comes in off a hard-fought victory in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby, holding off Imagination by a neck after the son of Ghostzapper hit the wire first in the in the Grade 3 Sunland Park Derby.

Resilience

Trainer: Bill Mott.

Jockey: Junior Alvarado.

Owner: Pam & Martin Wygod.

John Velazquez was in the saddle for the impressive win in the Grade 2 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on April 6, beating 106-1 Society Man by 2 ¼ lengths. But Velazquez will ride Fierceness, with Junior Alvarado getting the mount on a contender with a chance to hit the board, beaten 3 ½ lengths by Sierra Leone in the Risen Star.

Forever Young

Trainer: Yoshito Yahagi.

Jockey: Ryusei Sakai.

Owner: Susumu Fujita

No horse that’s run in the UAE Derby has ever hit the board in the Kentucky Derby. But Forever Young is unbeaten in five starts and tops the $2 million mark in earnings, having won both the Saudi Derby and UAE Derby. Derma Sotogaka finished sixth in last year’s Derby, equaling the top finish ever by a Japan-based runner.

Endlessly

Trainer: Mike McCarthy.

Jockey: Umberto Rispoli.

Owner: Amerman Racing.

Has five wins in six career starts, but has only raced on turf or synthetic surfaces, winning the El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate, before annexing the Grade 3 Jeff Ruby Stakes at Turfway Park on March 23.

Dornoch

Trainer: Danny Gargan.

Jockey: Luis Saez.

Owner: West Paces Racing & others.

Beat Sierra Leone by a nose in the Remsen at Aqueduct last year, so Dornoch’s best is very good. And the colt’s sired by Good Magic, sire of 2023 Kentucky Derby winner Mage, and won the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park, before placing fourth in the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes.

Just a Touch

Trainer: Brad Cox.

Jockey: Florent Geroux.

Owner: Qatar Racing and Marc Detampel.

A lightly raced son of 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify is looking for a first stakes score, having come out of a maiden win by placing second in both the Grade 3 Gotham at Aqueduct and the Grade 1 Blue Grass, after leading in the stretch.

Track Phantom

Trainer: Steve Asmussen.

Jockey: Joel Rosario.

Owner: L and N Racing, & others.

This speedster is likely to be setting the pace in a field without a lot of confirmed front-runners, and could wire the field if unchallenged, having run fourth in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby and second in the Grade 2 Risen Star at Fair Grounds, after winning the Grade 3 Lecomte there.

West Saratoga

Trainer: Larry Demeritte.

Jockey: Jesus Castanon.

Owner: Harry L. Veruchi.

Looms as this year’s potential feel-good story, with the colt having been purchased at auction for just $11,000, and with a trainer and owner in their first Derby. Got to Louisville via a second in the Grade 3 Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Park at 36-1 last time out.

Just Steel

Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas.

Jockey: Keith Asmussen.

Owner: BC Stables.

The most experienced runner in the race with 11 starts, this $500,000 yearling purchase had a near-miss in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby, earning a 95 Beyer Speed Figure, and finished a distant second behind Mystic Dan in the Grade 2 Southwest Stakes.

Honor Marie

Trainer: Whit Beckman.

Jockey: Ben Curtis.

Owner: Ribble Farms.

Likes the Churchill Downs oval, having won a maiden race and the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes there as a 2-year-old, while running second behind Catching Freedom in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds on March 23.

Domestic Product

Trainer: Chad Brown.

Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.

Owner: Klaravich Stables.

The other entrant for Chad Brown, looking for his first Derby win, got an invitation with a win in the Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby on March 9 last time out, after finishing second in the Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes 3 at Gulfstream.

Catalytic

Trainer: Saffie Joseph.

Jockey: Jose Ortiz.

Owners: Tami Bobo, Julie Davies, George Isaacs.

Figures to be on the front end pressing the pace, and that could be a good thing for the closers, with Catalytic having finished a distant second behind Fierceness in the Florida Derby on March 23 at 29-1.

Society Man

Trainer: Danny Gargan.

Jockey: Frankie Dettori.

Owner: West Paces Racing & others.

Expected to have some of the longest odds in the field, they won’t be as long as the 106-1 Society Man went off at in running second behind Resilience in the Grade 2 Wood Memorial, earning $140,000, or four times the gelding’s previous career earnings in four maiden races.

Mystik Dan

Trainer: Ken McPeek.

Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr.

Owner: Lance Gasaway, 4 G Racing & Daniel Hemby.

Mystic Dan’s connections will be praying for rain after an impressive effort on a muddy track, earning a 101 Beyer Speed Figure in winning the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park, topping Just Steel by eight lengths. Ran third in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby on a dry track last time out.

Encino

Trainer: Brad Cox.

Jockey: TBA.

Owner: Godolphin LLC.

A front-runner with a perfect record in three starts this year, secured a spot in the starting gate with a victory in the Grade 3 Lexington Stakes at Keeneland on April 13, going wire-to-wire and gamely holding on in the stretch.

No More Time

Trainer: Jose Francisco D’Angelo.

Jockey: Emisael Jaramillo.

Owner: Morplay Racing.

Got into the field when Deterministic was pulled from contention for the Derby, and adds more speed to the race, having gone wire-to-wire in the Grade 3 Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay on Feb. 10, before getting caught by Domestic Product near the wire in the Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby on March 9.

T O Password

Trainer: Daisuke Takayanagi.

Jockey: Kazushi Kimura.

Owner: Tomoya Ozasa.

Secured a spot via the Japan Road to the Derby by winning the Fukuryu Stakes in March, in just the second start of the colt's career.

This article originally appeared on Asbury Park Press: Kentucky Derby 2024: Post positions, odds, analysis