Kentucky Derby 2024: Five handicapping tips from The CJ's Better Derby Betting event
The Courier Journal’s annual Better Derby Betting event was held Wednesday night at Ten20 Craft Brewery, and guests received several handicapping tips as they prepare for the May 3 Kentucky Oaks and May 4 Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs.
Along with host Jason Frakes of The CJ, handicappers Ed DeRosa (@EJXD2 on X), David Levitch (@Paddock_Prince), and Bailey Armour (@_betbailey) offered advice on their top horses, live long shots, and ones to avoid in the Derby and Oaks.
Here are five takeaways from the event:
A trio of first-place picks
None of the panelists strayed too far from the likely favorites, but each had a different pick to win.
DeRosa went with UAE Derby winner Forever Young, looking past the 0-for-19 record of UAE Derby winners in the Kentucky Derby.
“He’s the second-fastest horse to Fierceness," DeRosa said of Forever Young. "That’s the horse he’s going to have to beat. The champ and favorite is legit. Forever Young’s up to the task.”
Levitch selected Florida Derby winner Fierceness, the likely favorite, and Armour selected Blue Grass winner Sierra Leone, the likely second choice.
Differing opinions on Sierra Leone
While Armour praised Sierra Leone, DeRosa and Levitch left him out of their exacta selections.
The $2.3 million purchase is 3-1-0 in four career starts, but his late-running style is a concern for a 20-horse race in which he’s likely to encounter heavy traffic.
Levitch compared Sierra Leone to Tapit Trice, last year’s Blue Grass winner and another late-running horse. Tapit Trice was the 9-2 second choice in the Kentucky Derby but finished seventh.
Honor Marie a live long shot
All three panelists consider Honor Marie a solid long shot, with Levitch picking him second behind Fierceness.
Honor Marie, trained by 2000 St. Xavier High School graduate Whit Beckman, is 2-1-0 in three career starts at Churchill Downs and has the pedigree to relish the longer 1 ¼-mile distance of the Kentucky Derby.
Honor Marie will enter the Kentucky Derby off a second-place finish in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby on March 23 at Fair Grounds.
No love for Resilience
Resilience won the Grade 2 Wood Memorial and has won two of his past three races, but none of the panelists consider him a threat in the Kentucky Derby.
DeRosa pointed out the Wood Memorial winner hasn’t produced a top-two finisher in the Kentucky Derby since 2003.
DeRosa also had no love for Grand Mo the First or T O Password, whom he predicted to finish 19th and 20th, respectively, in the Run for the Roses.
Who to like in Oaks?
The Oaks is considered a good wagering race, and the panelists had three different selections to win – Ways and Means (DeRosa), Leslie’s Rose (Levitch) and Thorpedo Anna (Armour).
Leslie’s Rose (Grade 1 Ashland) and Thorpedo Anna (Grade 2 Fantasy) will enter the Oaks off victories, and Ways and Means will enter off a second-place finish in the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks.
More horse racing: Kentucky Derby betting strategy from Ed DeRosa: Here are horses you should put money on
Jason Frakes: 502-582-4046; jfrakes@courier-journal.com. Follow on X @KentuckyDerbyCJ.
This article originally appeared on Louisville Courier Journal: Kentucky Derby 2024: Five handicapping tips from Better Derby Betting
