Kentucky basketball NCAA Tournament projections entering final week of the regular season
LEXINGTON — Kentucky basketball has a top-four NCAA Tournament seed squarely in its sights. With room to move up if it takes care of business this week and in the SEC Tournament next week.
Bracket Matrix, which released its newest update Monday, has the Wildcats as the highest-ranked 5-seed, with an average predicted seed of 4.43 (out of 104 brackets). UK went 2-0 last week, stunning Mississippi State on the road thanks to a last-second basket by freshman Reed Sheppard, then putting 111 points on Arkansas at home four days later. But neither win for coach John Calipari's team qualifies as a Quad 1 result as of Monday; if the Bulldogs can move back into the top 30 of the NET rankings, both of the Wildcats' victories over MSU this season would change from Quad 2 to Quad 1 triumphs. Quad 1 games are crucial, as they're a key metric used by the tournament selection committee when it convenes to create this season's bracket.
As of Tuesday morning, the Wildcats' NET ranking is 20 — the same spot it was in late last week.
Bracketologists.com, which only uses the NET rankings to fill out its bracket, projected the Wildcats as a No. 5 seed as of Monday. BracketWAG.com, which released its newest bracket after Monday's games ended, slotted Kentucky as the No. 4 seed in the Midwest Region, where it would face 13-seed UC Irvine in the first round in Spokane, Washington.
Here's a look at Kentucky's NCAA Tournament résumé as of Tuesday morning, as well as projections from a variety of national outlets:
Kentucky basketball tournament resume and NET ranking
NET ranking: 20
KenPom ranking: 18
Quad 1 record: 5-5
Quad 2 record: 2-2
Quad 3 record: 8-1
Quad 4 record: 6-0
ESPN NCAA Tournament projections for Kentucky basketball
ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi released his new projections Tuesday morning. He placed UK as the No. 4 seed in the Midwest Region. Lunardi has Kentucky bound for Brooklyn, New York, to take on 13-seed Appalachian State in the first round.
Kentucky basketball in CBS Sports bracketology
CBS Sports writer Jerry Palm released his latest update Sunday morning. He slotted Kentucky as the No. 5 seed in the West Region, traveling to Spokane to square off with 12-seed Samford in the first round.
UK basketball bracketology from USA TODAY Sports
USA TODAY's Paul Myerberg, Erick Smith and Eddie Timanus combined for a bracket for the network, which was released Tuesday morning. Like Lunardi, USA TODAY has Kentucky as the Midwest Region's 4-seed. Where the bracket differs from ESPN is that USA TODAY projects UK will head west, making the long trek to Spokane to tussle with 13-seed Samford.
What's next for Kentucky basketball
Kentucky caps the 2023-24 regular season with a pair of games this week, with one contest at home and one on the road.
The first is Wednesday, when it hosts Vanderbilt on senior night at Rupp Arena. The Wildcats waltzed past the Commodores in their first matchup this season, winning 109-77 in Nashville, Tennessee, last month. It's a game UK can't afford to lose. Vandy is the league's worst team in the NET rankings, sitting at No. 221. That's 70 spots behind Missouri, which is 0-16 in conference games this season.
After wrapping up with Vanderbilt, Kentucky turns its attention to the regular-season finale: at Tennessee Saturday afternoon. The Wildcats will seek to avenge their 103-92 loss to the Volunteers on Feb. 3, when Tennessee became the first SEC foe to put up triple digits at Rupp in more than three decades.
Saturday's matchup will have wide-ranging implications beyond simply being the latest installment in UK's most-played rivalry. It could determine whether Tennessee wins the league's regular-season title and takes the top seed in the conference tournament, as well as when Kentucky begins its own SEC tourney run. (The Wildcats still are vying for a top-four seed and a double bye.)
If nothing else, a win at Thompson-Boling Arena, where the Volunteers have lost just once this season, would be a major statement by the Wildcats to the selection committee — concluding the regular season with a convincing Quad 1 victory.
Reach Kentucky men’s basketball and football reporter Ryan Black at rblack@gannett.com and follow him on X at @RyanABlack.
This article originally appeared on Louisville Courier Journal: Kentucky basketball bracketology: 2024 NCAA Tournament projections
