How Kentucky and Arkansas match up — with a game prediction
How the Kentucky Wildcats (16-7, 7-3 SEC) and the Arkansas Razorbacks (16-7, 5-5 SEC) match up at each position for Tuesday’s men’s SEC basketball game at Rupp Arena at Central Bank Center:
Small forward
▪ Kentucky freshman Chris Livingston (5.3 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 44% FGs, 88% FTs) had only four points and two rebounds in 19 minutes in UK’s 72-67 win over Florida on Saturday. However, the 6-foot-6, 220-pound product of Akron, Ohio, played with ample energy and was disruptive as a defender. Over Kentucky’s past three games, Livingston has made a combined eight of 12 shots.
▪ Arkansas freshman Anthony Black (12.5 ppg, 5.3 rpg, team highs of 93 assists and 40 steals; 44% FGs) has emerged as the Razorbacks’ best all-around player. The 6-7, 198-pound product of Duncanville, Texas, has scored in double figures in seven of the past nine games. In the Hogs’ 65-63 escape Saturday at South Carolina, Black had 13 points, six rebounds, four assists, two blocked shots and a steal. In a 79-76 loss at Missouri on Jan. 18, Black flirted with a triple-double, finishing with 15 points, eight rebounds and seven assists.
Advantage: Arkansas.
Power forward
▪ Kentucky’s Jacob Toppin (11.7 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 45% FGs) is playing his best basketball of the season. The 6-9, 205-pound senior had a double-double, 17 points and 10 boards, in UK’s win over Florida. It was the second double-double in the past four games for Toppin, a transfer from Rhode Island. Over the past six contests, the Brooklyn, N.Y., product is averaging 14.8 points and seven rebounds. In UK’s 75-73 loss at Arkansas last season, Toppin played 12 minutes and scored two points and doled out two assists.
▪ Arkansas senior Makhi Mitchell (7.2 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 64% FGs, 61% FTs) is also a transfer from Rhode Island, but did not overlap with Toppin while playing for the Rams. After back-to-back games with double-figure points in losses to Alabama (10 points) and at Vanderbilt (11 points) last month, Mitchell has scored as many as 10 points only once in the past six contests. The 6-foot-9, 230-pound product of Washington, D.C., had 10 points and eight rebounds in a 60-40 win over LSU on Jan. 24.
Advantage: Kentucky.
Center
▪ Kentucky star Oscar Tshiebwe (15.9 ppg, 13.6 rpg, 33 steals, 19 blocked shots, 56% FGs, 69% FTs) had the worst offensive game of his two-season UK career in the victory over Florida. The 6-9, 255-pound product of the Democratic Republic of Congo made only two of 14 shots and finished with almost as many turnovers (three) as points (four). The West Virginia transfer did pull down 15 rebounds and dish out three assists before fouling out against the Gators. In Kentucky’s loss at Arkansas last season, Tshiebwe had 30 points and 18 rebounds and made 13 of 21 shots.
▪ Arkansas senior Makhel Mitchell (4 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 26 blocked shots, 63% FGs) is Makhi Mitchell’s twin brother and is the younger sibling by two minutes. The Mitchell twins began their careers at Maryland (2019-20), played for two seasons at Rhode Island (2020-2022) and are now in their first seasons at Arkansas. A 6-10, 240-pound Washington, D.C., product, Makhel Mitchell celebrated his 23rd birthday (and his brother’s) with a huge game in the Razorbacks’ 81-70 victory over Texas A&M on Jan. 31. Mitchell scored nine points, claimed 13 rebounds and blocked seven shots vs. the Aggies.
Advantage: Kentucky.
Shooting guard
▪ Kentucky redshirt senior CJ Fredrick (7.7 ppg, 33 assists vs. 12 turnovers, 38% FGs, 34% treys, 90% FTs) shot his way out of a slump in the victory over Florida. The 6-3, 185-pound Covington Catholic product hit four of 10 shots, three of six three-pointers, and finished with 12 points vs. the Gators. In the two games prior to Florida, Fredrick had made only one of 10 shots and missed all six of his trey attempts. Fredrick has, however, scored in double figures in five of Kentucky’s last eight games.
▪ A transfer from Wichita State, Arkansas junior Ricky Council IV has emerged as the Razorbacks’ leading scorer. A 6-6, 205-pound junior from Durham, N.C., Council is averaging 17 ppg and 3.2 rpg and is making 45% of his shot attempts and 80% of his free throws. Council has scored in double figures in 13 of his past 14 games and has gone above 20 points in seven different games in 2022-23. Over the past two games, Council has been in a bit of a shooting slump, making only 10 of 26 shots, one of 10 three-point tries.
Advantage: Arkansas.
Point guard
▪ Kentucky freshman Cason Wallace (11.7 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 78 assists vs. 41 turnovers; team-high 44 steals; 48% FGs, 41% treys, 68% FTs) came up big for UK down the stretch against Florida. The 6-4, 193-pound freshman from Dallas scored 10 of UK’s final 16 points as the Cats held off a late Gators challenge. Wallace finished with 20 points against Florida. He has averaged 14.4 ppg in the five most-recent games in which he has appeared. Wallace missed UK’s win at Mississippi with a knee contusion.
▪ Arkansas junior Davonte Davis (11 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 63 assists, 41% FGs, 32% treys) has scored at least 15 points in eight straight games. The homegrown, 6-4, 185-pound junior from Jacksonville, Ark., is in the midst of a hot streak from behind the three-point arc. Over the Razorbacks’ past six games, Davis has made 18 of 39 treys, a relatively robust 46.2 percent. In last season’s victory over UK, Davis played 31 minutes but took only one shot, which he missed. Davis did make five of seven free throws and finished with five points and two assists vs. the Cats.
Advantage: Kentucky.
Bench
▪ Kentucky’s Antonio Reeves (13 ppg, 2.1 rpg, 43% FGs, 41% treys, 83% FTs) struggled defensively in the win over Florida, getting beaten twice for backdoor layups. As a result, the 6-5, 205-pound Chicago product logged only 19 minutes and scored only four points. That snapped a streak of eight straight games scoring in double figures for the Illinois State transfer. ... Sahvir Wheeler (7.7 ppg, 2.3 rpg, team-high 117 assists; 42% FGs, 37% treys, 53% FTs) had eight points, three assists and two steals and hit four of five shots in the win over Florida. The 5-9, 180-pound senior has 12 assists vs. one turnover in the past two games. ... In the win over Florida, Daimion Collins (2.1 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 34% FGs) made two clutch free throws with 51.6 seconds left and UK clinging to a 68-64 lead. The 6-9, 210-pound sophomore from Atlanta, Texas, has taken only 11 field-goal attempts in SEC play, making five.
▪ Arkansas freshman Jordan Walsh (7.3 ppg, 4 rpg, 45% FGs, 28% treys) made only two of six shots and had four points but had 10 rebounds in the win at South Carolina. The 6-7, 205-pound product of Desoto, Texas, has scored in double figures in three of the past six games. ... Jalen Graham (5.6 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 62% FGs) was the hero of the victory at South Carolina. The 6-9, 225-pound senior, a transfer from Arizona State, hit eight of 10 shots and tied his season high with 16 points. ... A 6-7, 230-pound senior who transferred from Little Rock, Kamani Johnson (2.3 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 48% FGs) has gone scoreless in six of the past seven games in which he has appeared.
Advantage: Kentucky.
Intangibles and history
▪ Kentucky leads the all-time series with Arkansas 33-13 but the Razorbacks have won the past two meetings.
▪ As UK head man, John Calipari is 10-6 vs. Arkansas; Razorbacks head man Eric Musselman is 2-1 against UK.
▪ Historically, “The Muss Bus” runs on all cylinders in February. Including Saturday’s 65-63 escape at South Carolina, Arkansas is 14-1 in games played in February over the past three seasons. The only loss, by one point, came at Alabama last season.
▪ Arkansas has not been a good road team in 2022-23. The Razorbacks are 1-5 when playing on an opponent’s home court. Kentucky is 12-2 this season in Rupp Arena with the losses coming against SEC bottom-dweller South Carolina and defending NCAA champion Kansas.
▪ For Arkansas, prized freshman Nick Smith (played in five games) and capable Missouri transfer Trevon Brazile (nine games) have missed most of the 2022-23 season due to injuries.
Advantage: Kentucky.
Prediction
Kentucky 81, Arkansas 75.
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