Kelly and Schmidt in dead heat in race for Kansas governor, new poll shows

Kansas Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly and Republican state Attorney General Derek Schmidt are effectively tied in the race for governor with less than two months before Election Day, according to a poll released Wednesday.

Kelly has a small lead over Schmidt, 45% to 43%, in the poll conducted by Emerson College Polling and The Hill. But the incumbent governor’s lead falls within the 3% margin of error for the poll, which surveyed 1,000 likely Kansas voters Sept. 15-18.

State Sen. Dennis Pyle, a former Republican running as an independent candidate, has 3% support. Pyle has been portraying both Kelly and Schmidt as too liberal — likely drawing more support from the Republican candidate than the Democrat in the lead up to the Nov. 8 election.

The battle between Kelly and Schmidt has intensified in recent weeks, with both candidates mounting near-daily attacks on the other. Kelly is promoting her record of economic development, funding schools and working to link Schmidt to the unpopular former Gov. Sam Brownback. Schmidt has attacked Kelly over her handling of the foster care system, her response to COVID-19 and is trying to connect the Democratic governor to President Joe Biden and high inflation.

The poll found that 48% of Kansas voters named the economy as the most important issue, followed by abortion access at 16%, health care at 9% and immigration at 7%. In August, voters strongly rejected an amendment to the state constitution that would have given the Legislature the power to restrict or ban abortion.

The poll was paid for by Nexstar Media Group, which owns the Hill and multiple TV stations in Kansas under the KSN umbrella, according to a spokesperson for Emerson.

The race has long been seen as a tough one for Kelly, who is the only Democratic governor up for reelection this fall in a state won by former President Donald Trump in 2020. Additionally, no Kansas governor since 1968 has won reelection while their party controls the White House.

Independent voters are breaking for Kelly over Schmidt, 46% to 30%, while 8% of all voters remain undecided, according to the poll.

“Governor Kelly’s strong favorability and big lead with Independent voters is just more proof that her steady leadership and record of bipartisan results is resonating with Kansans - no matter their political party,” Kelly campaign spokesperson Madison Andrus said in a statement, adding that Schmidt is running to bring Kansas “back to the failures” of Brownback.

In a statement, Schmidt campaign general consultant Eric Pahls said the campaign “is surging as Kansans learn more about Laura Kelly’s extreme record of vetoing fairness in women’s sports, locking kids and parents out of schools, and working in lockstep with Joe Biden to make inflation worse.”

Other Kansas races surveyed

Republican Kris Kobach leads Democrat Chris Mann in the race for state attorney general, 41% to 39%, with 16% undecided.

Kobach, a former Kansas secretary of state, is attempting a political comeback after losing races for governor and U.S. senator in 2018 and 2020. He has promised to aggressively sue the Biden administration if elected. He recently resigned as general counsel and a member of the board of We Build the Wall after the organization was indicted on money laundering and other counts in New York State.

Mann is a former Lawrence police officer and former prosecutor in the Wyandotte County District Attorney’s Office. He has promised to focus on public safety over politically-charged lawsuits.

U.S. Sen. Jerry Moran, a Republican, holds a strong lead over Democrat Mark Holland, 45% to 33%, with 18% undecided. Moran is running for his third term in the Senate. Holland is the former mayor of Kansas City, Kansas.

Biden has a 36% approval rating among voters, with 58% disapproving. Trump would win a hypothetical matchup against Biden with 52% to 36% supporting the former president over the current president. Another 9% of voters supported another candidate, while 4% were undecided.

Correction: An earlier version of this story incorrectly stated polling results of a hypothetical Trump vs. Biden race.