KC Chiefs vs. L.A. Chargers: Who has the edge? (blitzing Patrick Mahomes? Good luck)

NFL teams have thrown a variety of defenses at Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, and dropping defenders instead of blitzing them has proven to be somewhat successful. So what did the Arizona Cardinals do last week?

According to Next Gen Stats, Arizona blitzed Mahomes more than he’d ever faced in a game, over 50% of the snaps (54), for the first time in his career. We know the outcome. Mahomes completed 30 of 39 for 360 yards and five touchdowns. Four of the scores came against the blitz. Mahomes wasn’t sacked.

How will the Chargers approach the Chiefs? They signed end Khalil Mack to pair with Joey Bosa. With this front, they should be able to get pressure on Mahomes without sending extra defenders. Mack had three sacks against the Raiders last week.

Here are some other ways the Chiefs and Chargers could operate on Thursday at at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium:

Chiefs’ offense vs. Chargers’ defense

As good as Mahomes and the receivers were against Arizona, the bigger news was in the running game. Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Isiah Pacheco and Jerick McKinnon combined to rush for 126 yards. But the Chargers, poor against the run last year, held the Raiders to 64 yards on 13 carries. They also sacked Derek Carr six times. Still, the Chiefs averaged 467 total yards in two meetings last season.

Edge: Chiefs

Chiefs’ defense vs. Chargers’ offense

Chris Jones had an excellent day in the opener without putting up big numbers. He was credited with one tackle and he batted down a Kyler Murray pass. But he was a force that affected the Cardinals’ offense. Now, the Chiefs have to try to make Herbert uncomfortable. He wasn’t sacked week in throwing three touchdown passes and no interceptions. The Chiefs received some bad news: Tookie cornerback Trent McDuffie was placed on IR Tuesday.

Edge: Chargers

Special teams

The Chiefs may have a problem. Harrison Butker’s sprained left ankle prompted them to sign a new kicker this week. Matt Ammendola has joined the practice squad. He went 13-for-19 for the Jets last year. Will safety Justin Reid continue to handle kickoffs?

Edge: Chargers

How the Chiefs win

Prime-time at Arrowhead has been a winning setting for the Chiefs. But they aren’t perfect in this spot. Remember last year’s regular-season pounding by the Buffalo Bills? The stadium will be electric, and the Chiefs’ coaches say they’ve been working on this matchup for weeks. In their second meeting last season, the Chargers took some fourth-down risks that didn’t pay off. The Chiefs’ defense needs to come up big again.

How the Chargers win

One team has defeated the Chiefs in Kansas City each of the past two years: yep, the Chargers. They took advantage of four Chiefs turnovers last season, and in Herbert’s rookie year, 2020, they beat a Chiefs team that was resting most of its starters. Still, the Chargers won’t be intimidated by the atmosphere. Collapsing the pocket with Mahomes, not letting him scramble, should be L.A.’s objective.

Best bet

Over 54. The last three Chiefs-Chargers games have 59, 54 and 62 points. Both defenses are better than a year ago, but Mahomes and Herbert are two of game’s best. They’ll find ways to score.