KC Chiefs vs. Indianapolis Colts: Who has the edge, how Chiefs can win (and a best bet)

The Chiefs are fast starters under Andy Reid, having won nine of 10 openers during his decade in Kansas City.

As the Chiefs’ starting quarterback, Patrick Mahomes is 13-2 in September games, and all of Mahomes’ teams have finished the season in the Super Bowl or AFC Championship Game.

As for Sunday’s opponent, the Indianapolis Colts, it’s been a mixed bag. But the franchise’s most recent playoff seasons, 2020 and 2018, started with stumbles.

The 2020 team, with Philip Rivers at quarterback, opened with a loss at Jacksonville and went on to finish 11-5. In 2018, the Colts opened 1-5 before winning nine of their last 10 in Andrew Luck’s final season.

It’s easy for Colts fans to be disenchanted with their team’s 0-1-1 start. Indianapolis (both team and fanbase) has playoff aspirations, and the task for Sunday’s home opener looks awfully daunting. But Colts coach Frank Reich believes his team can play up to its promise in any given game.

“Does it always happen right away, right when you want it to?” the former NFL backup QB-turned-coach asked rhetorically. “Hey, we’re not that far and all of a sudden, Boom, oh, this is the week we’re going to catch on fire. I don’t know. We’re going to find out. But I’ve just seen it too many times. I’ve experienced it personally. I’ve been on teams, I’ve watched other teams, watch other sports — it happens all the time.”

Here are some ways the Chiefs and Colts could operate at Lucas Oil Stadium in the noon game Sunday (CBS).

Chiefs’ offense vs. Colts’ defense

The Colts made some big moves in the offseason, obtaining defensive end Yannick Ngakoue, who has never recorded fewer than eight sacks in a season, and a former defensive player of the year in cornerback Stephon Gilmore. But the Jaguars’ Trevor Lawrence had success with quick throws last week, completing 25 of 30.

Mahomes has seven touchdown passes this season, but only two to wide receivers. Is the week for JuJu Smith-Schuster or Marquez Valdez-Scantling to find the end zone?

Edge: Chiefs

Chiefs’ defense vs. Colts’ offense

The loss of linebacker Willie Gay Jr. to a four-game suspension is a blow for the Chiefs. He’s their leader in solo tackles (15) and is tied for tops in quarterback hits with two. Darius Harris, who has played 18 defensive snaps this year, gets the call in relief. He was solid in the preseason and should see his tackle-numbers soar against Colts running back Jonathan Taylor, one of the game’s best.

It’s been a bit of a struggle for Indy quarterback Matt Ryan. The 15-year pro is completing a mediocre 60% of his passes and has been sacked seven times.

Edge: Chiefs

Special teams

The Chiefs may be without kicker Harrison Butker for a second straight game. Matt Ammendola made all five of his kicks (two field goals) against the Chargers last week, but the Chiefs will feel more comfortable when Butker returns. Rodrigo Blankenship has missed one field goal for the Colts this season, but it was a big one: a 42-yarder in overtime at Houston that would have won the game.

Edge: Chiefs

How the Chiefs win

Little slights, real or perceived, seem to motivate Mahomes. Here’s one for this opponent: The Colts are one of four teams the Chiefs haven’t beaten in the regular season with Mahomes as their starter. In fact, all four of those teams lurk on this year’s schedule. The others: Titans, Rams and Seahawks. Look for Mahomes to improve his record at indoor stadiums to 7-0 Sunday.

How the Colts win

Get the ball in Taylor’s hands repeatedly. The Chiefs’ rush-defense numbers are fine so far this season, but they haven’t seen a back this good. Taylor, who led the NFL in rushing last season, rumbled for 161 in the Colts’ opener.

Best bet

Chiefs running back Edwards-Helaire over 15 1/2 receiving yards.