How Kansas State Wildcats can avoid an upset against Montana State in NCAA Tournament

In hindsight, the Kansas State basketball team may end up benefiting from the way it lost its final two games of the regular season.

Frustrating as it was for the Wildcats to suffer defeats at West Virginia (89-81) and vs. TCU (80-67), both of those results should serve as excellent learning experiences for Jerome Tang and his players as they prepare for a NCAA Tournament first-round game against No. 14 seed Montana State at 8:40 p.m. on Friday in Greensboro, N.C.

The Bobcats are essentially a poor man’s version of both the Mountaineers and the Horned Frogs.

Think about the teams that caused issues for K-State this season. They all had some combination of a defense that was skilled at creating turnovers, an offense that could score at the rim and a front court that was big enough to grab a bunch of offensive rebounds.

West Virginia and TCU checked all three of those boxes. Montana State checks two of them, which means the Big Sky Tournament champions might not be a pushover even though the Wildcats are favored to win by eight points.

Or maybe K-State will learn from the mistakes it made in its two most recent losses and advance to the Round of 32 without any drama.

Let’s take a deeper look at Montana State and what could make the Bobcats a good or bad matchup for K-State:

Three strengths for Montana State

1. The Bobcats can force turnovers. They aren’t quite as skilled at taking the ball away from their opponents as some Big 12 teams, but they do create turnovers on 20.1% of their defensive possessions. That number ranks 73rd nationally.

2. Montana State knows how to get to the free-throw line. The Bobcats also score once they get there, ranking fifth nationally in free-throw rate and 33rd nationally at free-throw percentage. As a team, they have attempted 797 free throws this season and made 75.9% of them. Keeping Montana State off the foul line, and avoiding foul trouble, will be important for the Wildcats in this game.

3. Danny Sprinkle’s team does most of its scoring near the rim. Montana State is shooting 52.4% from two-point range this season. That number ranks 82nd nationally. Expect the Bobcats to challenge the Wildcats inside. Senior forward Jubrile Belo (13 points, 6.1 rebounds per game) and sophomore forward Great Osobor (10 points, 4.5 rebounds per game) could pose challenges for a small K-State lineup.

Three weaknesses for K-State to exploit

1. The Wildcats should own the three-point line. If Markquis Nowell and Keyontae Johnson heat up from the outside don’t expect Montana State to be able to do much to stop them. The Bobcats rank 232nd nationally in three-point defense, allowing opponents to shoot 34.8% from downtown. They also struggle to score from behind the arc. Montana State only makes 32% of its three-pointers and ranks 295th nationally in three-pointers attempted.

2. Montana State uses a 10-man rotation. On the surface, that may seem like a strength. But if the Bobcats are willing to use up to 11 players in the NCAA Tournament that should give K-State plenty of opportunities to exploit mismatches. The Wildcats own a noticeable talent advantage over the Bobcats, and that difference will only become more apparent as Montana State goes to its bench.

3. K-State can own the glass in this game. The Bobcats don’t grab offensive rebounds like TCU and West Virginia. They only give themselves second chances on 25.7% of their possessions, a number that ranks 267th nationally. That is a big drop off from TCU (32.4%) and West Virginia (33.7%). Montana State is a solid team when it comes to defensive rebounding, but if the Wildcats can limit the Bobcats to one shot attempt on most of their possessions that will give K-State an opportunity to flex its muscles on defense.

Stat to know

Montana State hasn’t beaten a single team from a power conference since Sprinkle took over as coach in 2020.

Granted, the Bobcats haven’t gotten many shots against P6 teams on a neutral floor over the past three years. But it is still worth nothing, because they have rarely even competed with opponents from high-major conferences. Montana State lost to Oregon 81-51 this season and also lost at Arizona 85-64. Last season, it made it to the NCAA Tournament and got crushed 97-65 against Texas Tech.

It’s possible that K-State could simply out-athlete Montana State.

Bobcats player to watch

RaeQuan Battle is a 6-foot-5 junior guard from Tulalip, Washington. He leads the Bobcats in scoring at 17.4 points per game.

He has scored as many as 32 points in games this season and he possession the athleticism of a power-conference guard, as he started out his college career at Washington before transferring to Montana State.

He shoots 34.3% from three-point range and is a good finisher at the rim, converting 65% of his layups and dunks.

Bottom line

If K-State wants to avoid an upset in the first round of the NCAA Tournament and potentially cruise into the Round of 32 with a blowout victory over Montana State it must do one thing well on Friday.

Limit turnovers.

Sorry if that sounds like a broken record, but turnovers is continually the most important number on the stat sheet for the Wildcats. They committed 20 turnovers against both West Virginia and TCU and lost each of those games convincingly. Another 20 turnovers against Montana State would put K-State at risk of an early exit.

The Wildcats need to find a way to reduce their turnover count to 15 or below in the NCAA Tournament. If that happens, it’s hard to see Montana State keeping pace with K-State.