Kansas State football vs. Texas: Scouting report, prediction

AUSTIN, Texas — Kansas State football is riding a season-long three-game winning streak into Austin for its last Big 12 meeting with Texas before the Longhorns move to the Southeastern Conference.

Kickoff is scheduled for 11 a.m. at Darrell K. Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium for the nationally televised Big Noon game on FOX. K-State is 6-2 overall and 4-1 in the Big 12, while Texas comes in at 7-1, 4-1.

K-State is coming off impressive victories at home in which they outscored TCU (41-3) and Houston (41-0) by a combined score of 82-3. Texas handled Brigham Young, 35-6, last week after a 31-24 escape at Houston in its previous game.

Texas is a four-point favorite after opening at minus-7, largely because starting quarterback Quinn Ewers is expected to miss his second straight game with a shoulder injury.

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Taking a closer look at Texas

The Longhorns are ranked No. 6 in the US LBM/USA TODAY coaches' poll and No. 7 by the Associated Press, with a marquee victory against Alabama topping their resume. Their loss was a 34-30 decision against Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry.

Texas is well balanced, with its offense ranking No. 24 nationally at 454.1 yards per game, while the defense is 27th, allowing just 328 yards. The Longhorns will match strengths with K-State; Texas is 14th nationally and first in the Big 12 at stopping the run, allowing 97.9 yards on the ground against a Wildcats rushing attack that is No. 5 nationally with 227 yards per game.

Coach Steve Sarkisian is in his third season at Texas, where his teams have improved each year, going 5-7 in 2021 and 8-5 last year.

Wildcats to face another backup QB

As luck would have it, Kansas State has faced several backup quarterbacks in Big 12 play this year and is expected to do so again when redshirt freshman Maalik Murphy steps in for Ewers for a second straight week.

Murphy was effective against BYU in his first career start, completing 16 of 25 passes for 170 yards and two touchdowns with one interception. But Ewers has thrown for 1,915 yards and 13 touchdowns with only three picks while completing 70.9 percent of his passes.

K-State has only faced two regular starting quarterbacks in its five previous conference games — Alan Bowman in a 29-21 loss at Oklahoma State and Houston's Donovan Smith last week — while going against backups against Central Florida, Texas Tech and TCU.

Texas players to watch

Even with Ewers sidelined, the Longhorns have two of the most explosive offensive threats in the league in running back Jonathon Brooks and wide receiver Xavier Worthy.

Brooks ranks second in the Big 12 in rushing with 923 yards (115.4 per game) with seven touchdowns. Worthy is second in the league with 44 catches for 572 yards and four receiving touchdowns, plus leads the conference in punt returns with a 17.6-yard average and a touchdown.

Defensively, middle linebacker Jaylan Ford was a first-team all-conference pick last year and leads Texas with 57 tackles, including 8.5 for loss, plus two interceptions and a fumble recovery. Nose tackle Byron Murphy, a preseason all-league selection, has 4.5 tackles for loss, a sack and six quarterback hurries.

Last chance for K-State vs. Longhorns

Texas leads the all-time series with K-State just 13-10 but has dominated of late with six straight victories. The six-game winning streak, which started with a 34-30 overtime decision in 2017, is the longest by either team.

Neither fifth-year coach Chris Klieman nor any member of the Wildcat roster has beaten the Longhorns. K-State's last victory, 24-21, came in 2016 in Manhattan. The last time the Wildcats won in Austin was 2011, when they prevailed, 17-13.

Still, the games traditionally have been close, with six of the seven previous meetings decided by seven points or less. The lone exception was the COVID-19 season of 2020, when the Longhorns trounced a pandemic-depleted K-State team, 69-31.

Will Howard back in the saddle for K-State

After switching between senior Will Howard and freshman Avery Johnson at quarterback for two games, K-State went back to Howard in the No. 1 role last week against Houston.

Howard responded by completing his first 12 passes and 15 of 17 overall for 164 yards and two touchdowns. After throwing seven interceptions in the first four games, he now has gone three straight without a pick.

Johnson got his first chance against Houston early in the second quarter and immediately lost a fumble. But he did come back in the fourth quarter with K-State comfortably in control and completed 5 of 6 passes for 46 yards and a touchdown.

Prediction: Texas 30, Kansas State 27

Kansas State comes into the game on a roll, will face a backup quarterback and is highly motivated to end its six-game skid against Texas in their final Big 12 matchup.

But Texas has had the Wildcats' number, especially in Austin, including two years ago when the struggling and injury-riddled Longhorns prevailed, 22-17, by going most of the game without a true quarterback.

The Longhorns' offensive balance with Brooks and Worthy will be too much for an improving K-State defense on the road.

Arne Green is based in Salina and covers Kansas State University sports for the Gannett network. He can be reached at agreen@gannett.com or on Twitter at @arnegreen.

This article originally appeared on Topeka Capital-Journal: Kansas State football vs. Texas: Scouting report and prediction