Kansas City experts predict holiday COVID case increases as RSV, flu strain hospitals

COVID-19 case numbers fell slightly this week in Kansas City, but hospitalization rates remain steady throughout the metro. Hospitals are currently feeling the strain of a “triple-demic” of the flu, RSV and COVID-19, especially affecting young children and seniors.

Several local medical professionals and researchers gathered at The University of Kansas Health System Tuesday morning for a news briefing on the ongoing viral surges in the metro.

Dr. Marc Johnson, a wastewater researcher at the University of Missouri who runs a sequencing lab studying the variants present in sewersheds throughout the state, noted that several new COVID-19 variants are on the rise in the Kansas City area. However, they aren’t yet causing a spike in illness.

“Despite the fact that XBB and BQ.1.1 are now throughout the state, neither one is causing (case) increases,” said Johnson. “The state is essentially at all-time lows since we started the project.” However, he noted that around this time last year was when case numbers started to rise as more people gathered indoors.

“I think we can expect that there will probably be some sort of a rise over the winter months,” added Dr. Amber Schmidtke, the division chair of natural sciences and mathematics at the University of St. Mary. “As we continue to gather for Thanksgiving and Christmas and all the winter holidays, those are just new opportunities for the virus to move.”

Schmidtke recommended getting vaccinated ahead of these holiday gatherings to reduce the risk of getting severely ill.

“One big thing I would suggest is, go get your flu shot, and go get your COVID vaccine too,” she said. “It’s not too late to get those things so that you’re ready.”

She added that the extremely mild flu season in 2020 showed the effectiveness of precautions like masking, staying home when sick, handwashing and other habits to prevent the spread of illness.

“We have it within us to knock these things down, it’s just a balance of how much are we willing to give up,” she said.

Here’s the latest COVID-19 data in the Kansas City area.

What does Kansas City’s COVID-19 data look like this week?

Officials reported a total of 997 new cases of COVID-19 in the Kansas City area over the past week, down from 1,142 the previous week. That gives the metro a 7-day average of around 142 new cases per day, compared to around 163 per day a week earlier.

Since many people are taking COVID tests at home, which aren’t publicly recorded, experts say real case totals are likely anywhere from two to five times higher than what data shows.

The state of Missouri is no longer reporting death counts at the county level. Johnson County reported two new deaths since last week, while Wyandotte County reported none. That brings the Kansas City metro area’s death total up to at least 4,407 since the pandemic began.

How vaccinated is the Kansas City area?

Part of Kansas City’s defense against the most active COVID-19 variants are the new bivalent booster shots, which are available at clinics around the metro. These boosters offer protection from both the original COVID-19 and several strains of the omicron variant. A recent Star report found that only around 4% of eligible patients in the metro have gotten the new booster as of late October.

Anyone who has received an initial COVID-19 vaccination, including children as young as five years old, can now get one of these new shots. They’re available at local health departments, clinics and pharmacies around the metro.

Overall vaccination rates in the metro are rising slowly, with 65.31% of the population fully vaccinated in the Kansas City region. Eastern Kansas has a higher vaccination rate, at 74.51%, than western Missouri does at 58.45%.

How are hospitals holding up?

The University of Kansas Health System is treating 21 patients with active COVID-19 infections, the same number as two weeks ago. None of these patients are in the ICU or on ventilators, compared to two ICU patients who were both on ventilators at the time of our last update.

MARC hospitalization data shows that the greater Kansas City area is now seeing an average of 75 new hospitalizations per day, up from 74 per day last week. Hospitalization trends usually follow several weeks behind case numbers, although current case numbers may not accurately reflect the full extent of the virus due to home testing.

What are the COVID-19 risk levels in the Kansas City area?

Clay, Platte, Jackson and Johnson Counties have all remained at a “low” community level of COVID-19. This indicates the medical care is readily available for COVID-19 patients.

Wyandotte County is still at a “medium” community level. That means the CDC recommends maintaining good ventilation, getting up to date on your vaccines and boosters, and wearing a mask if you are immunocompromised or indoors with someone who is.

All the counties that make up the Kansas City metro area remain at “high” transmission levels, except for Wyandotte County, which remains one step lower at a “substantial” transmission level. Both these rankings mean that your risk of catching COVID-19 in public is still elevated, even though medical care may be easier to access than before.

Do you have more questions about staying safe from COVID-19 in Kansas City? Ask our Service Journalism team at kcq@kcstar.com.