Kansas City Chiefs-Titans prediction: Why 5-2 Tennessee is a heavy underdog vs. KC

The Details

Kickoff: 7:20 p.m. Central Time on Sunday

Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium

TV: NBC (Ch. 41) in Kansas City

Radio: WDAF (106.5 FM) in Kansas City

Line: Chiefs by 12 1/2.

Jesse Newell’s prediction

The Chiefs and Titans are both 5-2. On paper, this would seem to make for an even-ish matchup on Sunday Night Football.

Vegas doesn’t believe it’ll play out like that. Instead, Kansas City has pushed to a 12 1/2-point favorite, and the reason for that seems to lie more with Tennessee than it does with the Chiefs.

Advanced power-ranking-type numbers — the ones sports books use to create opening lines — suggest Tennessee is a bottom-10 NFL team despite its gaudy record. While the Titans get credit for winning close games (and are 17-5[!] the last three seasons in games decided by seven points or fewer), studies tell us the ability to do that is typically more good fortune than sustainable skill.

Zoom out further, and Tennessee has been outscored, 138-132, by its opponents this season. The team also was a no-show in its most challenging game, falling 41-7 at Buffalo during Week 2 in front of a national audience on a Monday night.

Having said all that ... 12 1/2 is a lot of points for a betting line in the NFL. And if you want an optimistic view on Tennessee, you don’t have to look any further than Pro Football Focus, which has graded the Titans as the sixth-best team while diverging from the Vegas sports books’ point of view.

The bottom line with Tennessee: It can win when things fall right. The game needs to be within reach so the Titans can ride running back Derrick Henry and the ground game. The score needs to be close so that small edges — like the Titans ranking as PFF’s No. 1 special teams unit — can make a difference.

If things are a bit off, though, the Titans are vulnerable. That starts at quarterback, where injured Ryan Tannehill (ankle) might not play, and if that happens, a lot of pressure will fall on rookie Malik Willis.

Tennessee, to be frank, is not built for comebacks anyway. It has the worst pass-blocking offensive line in the NFL according to advanced metrics, while also lacking the explosive playmakers at receiver that it had in the past before trading A.J. Brown.

The Titans have a strong defensive line, and their run-blocking is solid, but both only play up if the Chiefs don’t jump out to an early lead.

One thing to note: KC has not played great at home this year. The team was lucky to eke out wins against the Los Angeles Chargers and Las Vegas Raiders in primetime, then played decently against Buffalo in a close loss.

I think that trend changes Sunday. Patrick Mahomes and the offense seemed to find a greater level of comfortability against San Francisco, and that could play up against Tennessee, which has a vulnerability against deep passes this season.

And if the Chiefs offense is its efficient self early, I think it could result in significant trouble for the Titans late.

Combine a rowdy Arrowhead crowd with a likely rookie quarterback and an offense being forced to play to its deficiencies, and the Chiefs defense has a chance to put up one of its most disruptive efforts while creating sacks and turnovers.

I’ll predict this one will get away from the Titans. Give me the Chiefs for both the win and cover.

Chiefs 31, Titans 10

Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Kansas City

Last game prediction: Chiefs 28, 49ers 20 (Actual: Chiefs 44-23) ✔️

This year’s record vs. spread: 4-3