Kansas City Chiefs-Buffalo Bills prediction: How (and why) AFC’s best teams diverged
Details
Kickoff: 3:25 p.m. Central time Sunday
Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri
Radio: WDAF (106.5 FM) in Kansas City
Line: Bills by 2 1/2.
Jesse Newell’s prediction
It’s difficult to over-hype this one.
According to betting markets, the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs are the best two teams in the NFL. Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen, meanwhile, are widely considered the best two quarterbacks.
There’s history to consider as well. The Bills’ are tired of hearing about “13 seconds” and also seem sick of chasing the Chiefs, which led to them splurging on win-now moves this offseason (like signing edge rusher Von Miller). KC remains in the game at the top of the AFC while taking a different path, though, trading receiver Tyreek Hill in the spring with an eye toward long-term success with Mahomes.
Some good news for the Chiefs is they’re likely to get some guys back this game. Though linebacker Willie Gay’s suspension remains, it appears right guard Trey Smith and kicker Harrison Butker will return from injuries. On Friday, however, coach Andy Reid said cornerback Rashad Fenton and safety Bryan Cook would be out, while cornerback Trent McDuffie also was unlikely to play.
To their credit, the Bills have maintained their position as league juggernauts while battling all sorts of injuries on defense. It’s mostly not mattered because of Buffalo’s elite pass rush (led by Miller), which has played up thanks to Allen and the offense allowing Buffalo so often to play from in front.
One thing going for KC: It should be motivated from the start. The Chiefs have had some emotionally flat performances this year (Chargers, Colts, Raiders), but that shouldn’t be an issue in this primetime matchup, where we should expect Reid to unleash at least a few plays that he’s kept in hiding.
Even knowing all that ... I’m not sure it will be enough. The Bills’ passing offense is dynamic with receivers Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis, and Allen always remains a headache in the QB run game — something the Chiefs have had issues limiting in the past.
The Chiefs are an elite team that’s still getting better with youth. The Bills, right now though, are a tier above everyone else, the best team partly because it put its full attention this offseason toward winning this year.
538’s NFL projections give each NFL game a 1-99 score based on “quality,” “importance” and “overall.” According to those measures, this contest has a 99 ranking in all three categories, highlighting just how rare a matchup like this is.
To the point: It’s unlikely we’ll see two better teams in one game this season (including playoffs) than we will here.
In the end, I’ll give the Bills the edge based on defense, believing they can take advantage of a Chiefs offensive line that appears a bit beat up while displaying some recent inconsistency.
Give me the Bills for both the win and cover.
Bills 31, Chiefs 24
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Buffalo
Last game prediction: Chiefs 27, Raiders 24 (Actual: Chiefs 30-29) ✔️
This year’s record vs. spread: 2-3
