K-State Wildcats vs. TCU Horned Frogs: Score prediction, betting line, game time, TV

THE DETAILS

Kickoff: 11 a.m. Saturday

Where: AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas

TV: ABC

Radio: KCSP 610 AM in Kansas City and KKGQ 92.3 FM in Wichita

The line: TCU by 2

Over/Under: 62

Prediction

This is the rematch that Big 12 football fans deserve.

Kansas State raced to a 28-10 lead when the Wildcats played TCU in Fort Worth earlier this season. I picked the Wildcats to win that game, and I was feeling like Nostradamus as Will Howard took over for an injured Adrian Martinez and engineered four straight touchdown drives. It looked like K-State was going to win, maybe even in blowout fashion.

But then Howard suffered a shoulder injury and had to briefly exit the game. Key defenders Daniel Green, Josh Hayes and Julius Brents also went down with ailments of their own. Big 12 offensive lineman of the year Cooper Beebe even had to leave the game for a while because he was dehydrated.

TCU took advantage of all those departures and rallied for a 38-28 victory behind 153 rushing yards and two touchdowns from Kendre Miller on top of 280 yards and three touchdowns passing from Max Duggan.

Would the outcome have been different without all those K-State injuries? We may get our answer in the Big 12 championship game when the Horned Frogs and Wildcats reunite at AT&T Stadium.

Both teams have changed since their first meeting. Howard has taken over as K-State’s quarterback, and the Wildcats are scoring at will with him at the controls. They are averaging 47.3 points per game when he starts and 40.2 points per game when he plays. TCU had the best scoring offense in the Big 12 this season at 41.3 points per game, but K-State has been just as productive with its new QB1.

TCU seems to have improved on defense since October. It has only allowed an average of 19 points in its past five games.

Another interesting note worth mentioning: K-State has played excellent defense in the second half lately. It allowed six points after halftime against both KU and West Virginia, no points against Baylor and three points against Texas. That trend could be difficult to continue against TCU, though. The Horned Frogs have been one of the nation’s best second-half teams all season.

This rematch feels like a coin flip. Both teams are relatively healthy and the game will be played on a neutral field.

It’s hard to project a winner with an abundance of confidence.

That makes me lean TCU. If this game, indeed, goes down to the wire it’s the Horned Frogs who will have an advantage. They have been in close games several times this season and they found ways to win all of them, whether it was a last-second field goal at Baylor or a fourth-quarter surge against Oklahoma State — or a huge comeback against K-State.

The Wildcats have gone 2-2 in games decided by a touchdown or less, and Howard didn’t play in any of them. Is he ready to lead his first game-winning drive, if it comes to that?

Some have called the Horned Frogs a team of destiny. It will be an extraordinary achievement if K-State can hand them their first loss on Saturday.

TCU 30, K-State 27.

Last game prediction: K-State 45, KU 27

2022 record on picks: 5-7

2022 record vs. spread: 5-7

2022 record vs. O/U points total: 7-5