K-State Wildcats vs. Kansas Jayhawks: Basketball lineups, tip, streaming, predictions

THE DETAILS

When: 7 p.m., Tuesday

Where: Allen Fieldhouse (Lawrence, Kan.)

TV: ESPN+

Radio: WHB (810) in Kansas City; KFH (1240 AM, 97.5 FM) in Wichita

PROBABLE STARTERS

About No. 7 Kansas State (18-3, 6-2):

K-State is 2-1 since defeating KU 83-82 in overtime on Jan. 17 at Bramlage Coliseum. The Wildcats defeated Florida 64-50 on Saturday in Manhattan. K-State lost to Iowa State 80-76 on Jan. 24 at Hilton Coliseum in Ames, Iowa, and defeated Texas Tech 68-58 on Jan. 21 in Manhattan. … K-State’s win over Florida snapped the Wildcats’ four-game losing streak in the SEC/Big 12 Challenge. K-State went 4-6 all-time in the SEC/Big 12 Challenge, which just completed its final year. …

K-State has won 12 nonconference games this season, its most since the 2010-11 season (12). … KSU beat Baylor on Jan. 7 for its first win as a ranked team since a 70-61 win over TCU in the Big 12 Championship quarterfinals on March 14, 2019. … K-State is 6-2 in Big 12 play for just the fourth time, including the first time since 2018-19. At 18-3, K-State has equaled its best start since 1972-73. The 18 victories are the most by the Wildcats since winning 25 games in 2018-19. A victory would push KSU’s record to 19-3, the best start since 1961-62 (19-2). ...

K-State is 9-1 this season in games decided by single digits and/or overtime (4-0). … Cam Carter, a transfer from Mississippi State, has scored in double figures in five games. … Nae’Qwan Tomlin has scored in double figures in 12 games. … K-State is now 11-1 this season when leading at the half. The Wildcats led Florida 37-16 at halftime Saturday. … David N’Guessan, a transfer from Virginia Tech, returned to the starting lineup for the first time in more than a month vs. Florida, scoring nine points with two steals in 19 minutes. …Nae’Qwan Tomlin has 30 dunks on 85 made field goals, which is a part of 61 dunks made by Wildcats this year.

About No. 8 Kansas (17-4, 5-3):

KU leads the all-time series 203-95. KU has won seven of eight and 15 of the last 17 meetings vs. K-State dating to Feb. 3, 2016. … Since Feb. 12, 1994, Kansas has won 64 of the last 71 meetings with K-State. … KU is 29-6 in Bramlage Coliseum and 52-18 in Allen Fieldhouse vs. KSU… Beginning in 2007, Kansas has won the last 16 meetings with Kansas State in the fieldhouse. KSU’s last win in Lawrence was on Jan. 14, 2006. … This is the 10th matchup of top 10 teams in series history, including the first since No. 1 KU knocked off No. 9 K-State 72-64 in the Big 12 Championship game on March 13, 2010. ...

Bill Self is 38-7 versus K-State as KU coach. He’s 18-1 vs. KSU in Allen … KU has not been swept in the two-game regular season series by KSU since 1982-83. … KU which lost its last home game (to TCU), has never lost two games in a row at Allen in the 20-year Self era. KU last lost two straight games in Allen during the 1988-89 season, Roy Williams’ first season at KU. KU lost four in A row at home that season. ... KU last lost four straight conference games in 1988-89. …

KU is 3-4 against AP ranked foes this season. Eleven of the last 12 and 18 of Kansas’ last 20 losses have been to ranked foes. In the Self era, KU is 121-67 against AP-ranked opponents. KU is 22-11 against foes ranked inside the top-10 of the AP poll since 2013-14. Since Self’s first season, the Jayhawks are 18-4 against AP top-10 teams inside Allen Fieldhouse, 9-1 versus top-five opponents. ... KJ Adams has scored in double-figures 12 times this season, with all 12 coming in the last 14 games. … Kevin McCullar has six double-doubles at KU and nine in his college career.

Shreyas Laddha’s prediction

Kansas looks to avenge itself against K-State on Tuesday … plus avoid making history in the process.

The biggest key for the Jayhawks is to hit their threes; the last time the two teams played, KU shot 6-for-29 from three (20.7%). The Jayhawks’ bench has also struggled all season and this game was no exception. The Wildcats had 23 more bench points (31 for K-State compared to eight for KU).

Last time on offense, Kansas didn’t have many players play well besides Jalen Wilson, who dropped a career-high 38 points. The Jayhawks desperately need Gradey Dick or KJ Adams to provide scoring to complement Wilson. They also need guards Kevin McCullar and Dajuan Harris to not be hesitant when shooting the ball and take open shots — something they didn’t do in Manhattan.

On the other side of the ball, KU needs to play defense without fouling. Kansas had three players foul out (McCullar, Adams and Dick) in Manhattan, which led to wonky lineups and poor late-game execution.

Historically, Kansas has blown K-State out at home. After playing their best basketball in weeks against Kentucky and desperately needing a conference win, I like the Jayhawks in this one. It should be close regardless.

For more analysis, here is my full breakdown of the matchup.

KU 75, K-State 69

Last game prediction: Kentucky 78, Kansas 75 (Actual: KU 77, UK 68)

Season record: 8-5

Season record against the spread: 8-5

Kellis Robinett’s prediction

If Jerome Tang leads K-State to a road victory over Kansas on his first try, it might be time to start wondering if there is anything he can’t do with the Wildcats.

Bob Huggins never won a game inside Allen Fieldhouse. Neither did Frank Martin or Bruce Weber. Their combined record as K-State coaches in Lawrence: 0-16.

Tang gets an opportunity to make history on Tuesday.

There’s a good chance it happens, at least compared to most years. The No. 8 Jayhawks enter this game favored by six, but they are looking up at the No. 7 Wildcats in the top 25 and they lost Round 1 of the Sunflower Showdown earlier this month at Bramlage Coliseum.

With all those things going for it, I won’t be surprised if K-State leaves AFH with a rare victory on Tuesday. I really like its chances of keeping the game close enough to cover the spread as a road underdog. Believe it or not, KU has failed to cover in five straight home games.

K-State played in a similar environment last week against Iowa State at Hilton Coliseum and the Wildcats pushed the Cyclones until the end in a narrow 80-76 loss. This team won’t be fazed by the opponent or the crowd.

Still, the Jayhawks are deservedly favored.

KU did not play particularly well in recent losses to K-State and TCU, but the Jayhawks showed improvement in a narrow defeat against Baylor and then a road win over Kentucky. Gradey Dick and Kevin McCullar have slowly begun to help Jalen Wilson in the scoring department. KJ Adams is also likely booming with confidence after scoring 17 against Kentucky star Oscar Tshiebwe.

From afar, it seems like KU got its swagger back.

K-State will need to play its best to win, and there are a few reasons that seems unlikely. The Wildcats have lost their past two road games and a few of their players have been inconsistent in recent weeks. Desi Sills, the hero of K-State’s win over KU earlier this month, has scored a total of five points in his past three games. Nae’Qwan Tomlin seems to have hit a wall. Keyontae Johnson is also coming off three consecutive average games, by his standards.

Throw in how hard it traditionally has been for Big 12 teams to sweep Bill Self in a season and I’m leaning toward a narrow win for the Jayhawks.

KU 78, K-State 73

Last game prediction: K-State 67, Florida 59 (Actual: KSU 64, UF 50)

Season record: 15-5

Season record against the spread: 12-8