K-State Wildcats vs. Baylor Bears: Score prediction, betting line, odds, TV, time

THE DETAILS

Kickoff: 6 p.m. Saturday

Where: McLane Stadium, Waco, Texas

TV: FS1

Radio: KCSP (610 AM) in Kansas City, KKGQ (92.3 FM) in WIchita

The line: Baylor by 2 1/2 with an over/under points total of 53

Prediction

A common theme has emerged in Kansas State’s two most recent losses.

The Wildcats couldn’t stop the run in either game.

Texas rushed for 269 yards and beat K-State by a score of 34-27 last week in Manhattan. Before that, TCU rushed for 215 yards and defeated K-State by the score of 38-28 in Fort Worth.

If the Wildcats can’t figure out a way to stop the run against the Baylor on Saturday, they could be in for another long day. Dave Aranda’s team has been destroying Big 12 teams on the ground of late, rushing for 273 yards against Kansas, 231 yards against Texas Tech and then 281 yards against Oklahoma.

Baylor won all three of those games and is now in control of its destiny in the Big 12 championship race despite a slow start to the season.

This game could easily be decided by K-State’s rushing defense and Baylor’s rushing offense. If the Wildcats can prevent the Bears from moving the chains and chewing up clock with their stable of talented running backs (Craig Williams, Jordan Nabors, Richard Reese and Qualan Jones all had rushing touchdowns last week), they will have a chance at pulling off a road upset. But if Baylor puts up another 200 yards on the ground, K-State may struggle to keep pace.

K-State has bounced back from losses well this season. It defeated Oklahoma a week after losing to Tulane and defeated Oklahoma State after falling at TCU. The Bears have also struggled at times against the run, so Adrian Martinez and Deuce Vaughn could have a big day running against this defense.

Expect Chris Klieman to respond well once again coming off a loss against Texas.

But this feels like a bad matchup for the Wildcats. Baylor is a complete team that plays defense and is capable of exploiting K-State’s biggest weakness with a relentless running game. Chris Klieman is also 0-3 against Baylor.

I’m picking Baylor to win a close game.

Baylor 33, Kansas State 27.

Last game prediction: Kansas State 27, Texas 24

2022 record on picks: 3-6

2022 record vs. spread: 3-6

2022 record vs. O/U points total: 6-3