JuJu, Hardman, Thornhill: Chiefs have key free agents; what should they do with each?

Three years ago, after ending a half-century Super Bowl drought, the Chiefs developed a motto for the ensuing offseason.

Run it Back. You remember, right? Self-explanatory in nature, the expression rang mostly true.

The second title did come eventually, three years later — but it was turnover, not continuity, that ultimately sparked it.

The Chiefs are back here because of a willingness to adapt, something prudent to keep in mind now. They have 15 players who are set to hit unrestricted free agency next week, and as you will see below, there’s an argument to be made for letting at least half this group find new homes for next season — which, by the way, is not always a commentary on their contributions for 2022, but rather their price for 2023.

Like whom?

Let’s get into it.

Orlando Brown Jr., left tackle

What the Chiefs should do: Let him walk. Well, probably.

The reason: It’s more than mildly surprising that the Chiefs elected not to franchise tag Brown a second straight offseason, which would have cost them just under $20 million for 2023. It’s a lofty price, but it’s also just a one-year commitment, and the Chiefs don’t have an obvious Plan B at a premier position — the protector of Patrick Mahomes’ blindside. Even in the worst-case scenario after tagging Brown, the Chiefs could find the escape hatch in 2024.

But we’re past that decision now and on to the next. Brown is the best left tackle on the open market. He will likely command more than $20 million per season, and if you’re unwilling to make that commitment for just one season, you’re less willing to make it for multiple years.

I said this in a column on Brown’s situation in the past week, but he’s better than his reputation in Kansas City indicates. The problem for the Chiefs isn’t that he wants to be paid like one of the very best at his position — who doesn’t? — but rather that one of the remaining 31 teams might just do it. And that’s what triggers the decision here. The Chiefs can’t afford for desperation to guide their finances, which means it will require Brown to encounter either an underwhelming market or a change of heart.

JuJu Smith-Schuster, wide receiver

What the Chiefs should do: Offer a multi-year contract, but don’t stretch the budget to do it.

The reason: Smith-Schuster essentially bet on himself, taking an incentive-laden deal with the Chiefs after injuries robbed him of much of his production in 2021.

And he responded with 78 catches for 933 yards and three touchdowns. The receptions and yardage led the team’s wide receivers group. Smith-Schuster is also just 26 and his size is a good fit on the opposite side of the line of scrimmage as Travis Kelce.

On the other hand, he’s not a true No. 1 wideout, and if some team is willing to pay him like one — it is a thin receiver market this offseason — then the Chiefs need to bow out of a bidding war.

He’s a valuable piece, but if Tyreek Hill was replaceable in this offense, Smith-Schuster most certainly is. He doesn’t separate especially well, meaning he relies more on scheme and his sure-handedness. According to data provided by ESPN Analytics, he ranked 77th in a measurement of how frequently tight ends and receivers get open.

This approach equates to banking on the player to settle for less money, and typically players who have done that once are less inclined to do it again. But while it would sting to lose him, it would sting more over the long-term to hand out a three- or four-year deal that pays him what he might command on the open market.

Juan Thornhill, safety

What the Chiefs should do: Let him walk.

The reason: The previous three words derive from one thing:

Money.

Thornhill will be in for a large pay bump from the rookie contract that kept him in KC the past four years. He looked like a future Pro Bowler in the making during his rookie season before tearing an ACL during the regular-season finale. But he’s just never quite taken the jump from solid contributor to outright difference-maker. The Chiefs have been preparing for his exit for a year now. They plucked Bryan Cook in the second round of last spring’s draft. That eases the effect of Thornhill’s departure.

Mecole Hardman, wide receiver

What the Chiefs should do: Let him walk.

The reason: See above. Hardman falls into a similar bucket as Thornhill. It’s not that the Chiefs couldn’t use him; it’s that he won’t be worth the price another team is willing to pay, and this is Hardman’s first chance for a true payday. Hardman should command a multi-year deal that rewards him in the neighborhood of $10 million annually, if not more. That’s not a market that makes sense for the Chiefs when they just won a Super Bowl despite Hardman missing the last half of the year — and the championship game itself.

Add to that, like Thornhill, the Chiefs put themselves in a position to replace Hardman before they actually have to replace him. Kadarius Toney overlaps his skill-set.

Jerick McKinnon, running back

What the Chiefs should do: Offer him a similar one-year deal to the $1.2 million he earned in 2022.

The reason: Two years ago, the Chiefs were the only team in football to offer McKinnon a chance to continue his playing career. He might have some other suitors this offseason, but that shouldn’t price out the Chiefs, who will be looking to add to their running backs room even if they get McKinnon back. He’s their best option in pass protection and their best option in the screen game. He is also the most popular player in the locker room not named Patrick Mahomes — and when you’re a team that’s increasingly dependent on rookies, that’s not nothing.

Andrew Wylie, right tackle

What the Chiefs should do: Wait on the market.

The reason: The Chiefs can do better at right tackle, but they might have a difficult time finding better value. Wylie is far from the best right tackle in football, but he’s also far from paid like it. He was the 26th-highest-paid player at his position in 2022.

The wrinkle is that he played his best in the Super Bowl, a game anyone associated with football watched, and that could increase his value in free agency.

The Chiefs have to be smart about remembering the entire picture, though Wylie increases his value with his ability to play multiple spots along the line. He also has experience, and he’s a motivational leader in that room.

The Chiefs tried to invest in a longer-term future at the spot with Lucas Niang, but weight problems and then injury problems have sidetracked those plans. Niang worked to get in better shape and has returned from injury, but that came after training camp, which means the Chiefs haven’t seen him in full-contact situations in a long time.

A one- or two-year offer is worthwhile with Wylie, though not at a significant increase from what he earned last season ($2.6 million per year). That might not be enough to get something done.

Justin Watson, wide receiver

What the Chiefs should do: Offer him a one-year contract.

The reason: It’s easy to overlook that Watson actually played 43% of the team’s offensive snaps in 2022. That’s not exactly a compliment about his production, however. He made just 15 catches, though he did average 21 yards per reception, best on the team. He scored a pair of touchdowns, including a key one against the Chargers in Week 2.

Look, Watson is more valuable than some realize — a lot of his route-running is designed to get his teammates open. There’s no one better at the drag route to lighten the traffic that follows Kelce, a play the Chiefs run frequently.

Mostly, though, Watson is a dependable No. 5 wideout who is familiar with where he needs to be, and he shouldn’t be too costly.

Ronald Jones, running back

What the Chiefs should do: Let him walk.

The reason: This was a rocky marriage from the start, when the Chiefs nearly cut Jones out of training camp. He made the team with a final preseason burst, though if not for the Super Bowl ring, he might’ve been better off if he hadn’t because he sat on the roster almost purely as an insurance policy. His season as a 25-year-old included all of 17 carries. He will be out the door by the time the Chiefs even have to make the decision.

Michael Burton, fullback

What the Chiefs should do: Offer him a similar one-year deal to the $1.2 million he earned in 2022.

The reason: This isn’t as easy as it seems, because the fullback is fading further from Reid’s offense with each passing season. If they want to go without one in 2023, you won’t find an argument here. Burton played only 6% of the team’s offensive snaps this past season.

But Reid likely will want to continue employing one, and Burton is a good option in that case. He is a key contributor on special teams, and he’s good at his role, even if he’s rarely used in it.

Blake Bell, tight end

What the Chiefs should do: Let him walk.

The reason: He’s been a reliable piece in his time in Kansas City, particularly as the blocking tight end more recently, but the Chiefs have Travis Kelce, Noah Gray and Jody Fortson. And the tight end position might be the deepest among all spots this draft class.

Cutting ties with Bell allows the Chiefs to pluck someone from that class and start thinking about developing a Kelce replacement, especially considering the Chiefs led the NFL in points scored with three tight ends on the field.

Carlos Dunlap, defensive end

What the Chiefs should do: Let him walk.

The reason: The Chiefs got what they wanted out of Dunlap after signing him during training camp. He had four sacks. But his pressure rate continues to dip, and he just turned 34.

After releasing Frank Clark earlier this month, the Chiefs need to prioritize getting younger, faster and more athletic on the edge.

Derrick Nnadi, defensive tackle

What the Chiefs should do: Let him walk.

The reason: He returned on a one-year deal in 2022, but then he produced his worst year in Kansas City. He was credited with just seven stops — plays that PFF grades as a failure for the offense — the entire regular and postseason combined. For reference, he had years of 20, 26, 25 and 18 in his first four years.

He was graded 129th of 141 interior defensive linemen by PFF.

Khalen Saunders, defensive tackle

What the Chiefs should do: Offer him a short-term contract.

The reason: The best stretch of Saunders’ four-year career came in the middle of last season, when he had sacks in three consecutive games. He was also credited with 22 stops on PFF after recording just 21 in his first three seasons combined.

There were some “he’s finally healthy” vibes to his output, and therefore some optimism that this is the production more true to the player.

Nick Allegretti, guard

What the Chiefs should do: Offer him a one-year deal.

The reason: He’s a reliable backup who can spot-start at both guard and center. He’s familiar with the offense. If he wants a shot to start elsewhere, the Chiefs should allow him that opportunity, but a one-year return makes a lot of sense.

Deon Bush, safety

What the Chiefs should do: Offer a one-year deal.

The reason: Bush fits the mold of a third or fourth safety. He’s experienced. He played 317 snaps on special teams. And he shouldn’t be expensive.