John Duarte pulls ahead of Adam Gray in toss-up California Central Valley congressional race
A farmer and a state Assemblyman are competing for an open seat in this Central Valley congressional district that could go to the GOP even though Democrats outnumber Republicans.
By early Wednesday morning, Republican farmer John Duarte had pulled into the lead with 50.2% of the vote. Democratic Assemblyman Adam Gray was close behind with 49.8%.
It is still too early to tell who will come out on top with about 37% of the votes counted, per the Associated Press. Just more than 200 votes separated Gray and Duarte as of 1 a.m.
The toss-up election in California’s 13th Congressional District between Gray and Republican farmer John Duarte was tightening ahead of Nov. 8, analysts said. Whether it contributes to a predicted GOP wave or holds the line for Democrats is anyone’s guess.
The day before the election, some analysts gave Duarte a slight edge.
The 13th, formed through the once-a-decade redrawing of legislative boundaries known as redistricting, covers all of Merced County in a stretch from Lathrop past Coalinga. It includes half of Modesto and Turlock to the east.
Voters there would have elected President Joe Biden by 11 percentage points in the 2020 presidential election. They also would have voted to recall Gov. Gavin Newsom last year by a point. Forty-three percent are Democrats while 28% are Republicans. The district has a Hispanic-majority voting-age population; Latino voters have historically backed Democrats in California, though a nationwide trend toward the GOP could shift west.
Analysts first considered Democrats to have an edge in the midterms, but shifted the race to toss-up after the June primary when GOP candidates took 52% of votes. The week before the election, they had more confidence behind Republicans nationwide as surveys showed economic concerns were rallying GOP voters.
Gray, D-Merced, has represented the area in the Legislature for a decade. A moderate Democrat and self-proclaimed “radical centrist,” Gray has championed water access as one of his main concerns. The 45-year-old fought for the creation of a medical school program at UC Merced.
Duarte, a Modesto farmer and businessman who owns Duarte Nursery in Hughson, has similarly prioritized water access. The 56-year-old’s other mainstays are drilling for more oil on American soil and tamping down on inflation.
Other Central Valley elections
The Central Valley is home to two other tight House midterms in the 9th and 22nd Congressional Districts.
Rep. Josh Harder, D-Tracy, and San Joaquin County Supervisor Tom Patti, a Republican, are in a close contest for the 9th; analysts say the congressman has a slight edge. Rep. David Valadao, R-Hanford, and Assemblyman Rudy Salas, D-Bakersfield, are in a toss-up race for the 22nd.
Other Central Valley races with long-serving House members have not been high on analysts’ watch lists. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Bakersfield, is expected to win the election in the 20th (and take the speaker’s gavel if the GOP controls the House); Rep. Jim Costa, D-Fresno, the 21st; Rep. Tom McClintock, R-Elk Grove, the 5th.
