John Calipari is right: Opponents have made free throws at unusually high rate vs. Kentucky

John Calipari has sprinkled in a common concern during his postgame press conferences in recent weeks: A reference to opponents making most of their foul shots against Kentucky.

And on this point, Cal is correct.

As of Tuesday morning, Kentucky men’s basketball ranks 318th in the country in opponent free-throw success rate, according to KenPom.

Through 29 games in the 2022-23 season, opposing teams are making 74.4% of their foul shots against the Wildcats.

The current NCAA Division I average for team free-throw shooting is 71.5%.

So why are opponents making almost 3% more of their free throws against Kentucky compared to the national average?

Is there anything the Cats can do to turn this pattern around?

And perhaps most importantly for a UK team that’s now firmly part of the NCAA Tournament picture: What can this statistic tell us about UK’s chances in March?

Opponents enjoy abnormal free throw success against UK

In only five of Kentucky’s 29 games this season, the opponent’s best free throw shooter (among available and regular players) has led the opposition in free-throw attempts.

For example, this includes when Kansas’ Gradey Dick (an 84.4% free-throw shooter) led the Jayhawks with four foul shots during Kansas’ win at Rupp Arena in January.

But it’s not like it’s been the opposition’s best foul shooter that’s routinely burned Kentucky this season.

Instead, a significant part of the damage opponents have dealt the Wildcats from the foul line has come from players not usually known for their foul shooting prowess.

Here are a few examples of opponents unexpectedly finding success at the foul line against UK this season:

▪ Michigan State center Mady Sissoko went 6-for-8 (75%) from the free-throw line in a November win over UK (65.6% free-throw shooter this season).

▪ Gonzaga guard Julian Strawther went 7-for-7 (100%) in a November win over UK (77.1% this season).

▪ Florida A&M forward Jaylen Bates went 5-for-6 (83.3%) in a December loss to UK (62.7% this season).

▪ Missouri guard DeAndre Gholston went 7-for-8 (87.5%) in a December win over UK (77.7% this season).

▪ Texas A&M guard Dexter Dennis went 6-for-6 (100%) in a January loss to UK (77.8% this season).

▪ Texas A&M guard Tyrece Radford went 6-for-6 (100%) in a January loss to UK (79% this season).

▪ Florida forward Colin Castleton went 7-for-7 (100%) in a February loss to UK (72.9% season).

▪ Georgia guard Justin Hill went 6-for-6 (100%) in a February win over UK (77.7% this season).

▪ Mississippi State forward Tolu Smith went 6-for-7 (85.7%) in a February loss to UK (56.6% this season).

▪ Florida guard Riley Kugel went 6-for-7 (85.7%) in a February loss to UK (66.7% this season).

Of course, this kind of shooting variance has also worked in Kentucky’s favor this season: A February home win over Tennessee was helped by the Volunteers combining to shoot 4-for-14 (28.6%) from the foul line.

Still, more often than not this season, Kentucky has gotten unlucky at the foul line.

This becomes especially apparent when looking at only conference games.

Kentucky ranks 4th in the SEC in conference games in free-throw percentage: The Cats have made 73.5% of their foul shots against league opponents.

But, UK ranks dead last in the SEC when it comes to opponent free-throw percentage: SEC opponents are making 76.4% of their foul shots against the Wildcats.

Across all games this season, Kentucky ranks among the SEC’s bottom five schools in free throw percentage (10th), free throws made (10th) and free throws attempted (11th).

What does opponent free-throw success mean in the NCAA Tournament?

In the KenPom era (since the 2001-2002 season), only one team has won the NCAA Tournament with opponents making free throws at a higher rate than UK’s opponents currently do (74.4%).

Villanova (2018) won the national championship despite opponents making 74.7% of their free throws. But, this was more than balanced out by Villanova’s own elite free-throw shooting: Villanova ranked 11th in the nation during the 2017-18 season by making 77.9% of their foul shots, with the charity stripe ultimately being a net positive for them.

The same can’t be said for the 2022-23 Kentucky Wildcats.

While Kentucky’s free-throw shooting has improved in recent months after a horrendous start, the Wildcats still rank 241st in the nation while shooting 70.3% from the foul line.

This equates to a negative 4.1% disparity between what UK shoots from the foul line and what opponents are shooting.

In the KenPom era, only three schools have won the national championship while making a lower percentage of free throws than their opponents:

▪ Connecticut (2004): Made 62.3% vs. opponents making 67.3%.

Net percentage: Negative 5%.

▪ North Carolina (2017): Made 70.2% vs. opponents making 72.7%.

Net percentage: Negative 2.5%.

▪ Kansas (2022): Made 71.7% vs. opponents making 71.9%

Net percentage: Negative 0.2%.

In total, 16 of the last 20 winners of the NCAA Tournament had their opponents make 69.5% or less of their free throws.

So what can Kentucky do to change this?

Probably not much.

It would be one thing if the Wildcats were frequently sending the opponents’ best free-throw shooter to the foul line, but that really hasn’t been the case this season.

Several statistical outliers — both from individual opponents and their teams — have contributed to Kentucky facing a high percentage of made free throws this season.