Jim Patterson vs. Steve Brandau for Fresno County supervisor? Let the 2024 campaign begin

The ink on the 2022 election wasn’t even dry before a certain Fresno politician started jockeying for the next one.

These people can’t help themselves. Running for office is what they do.

While guest-hosting Wednesday on KMJ-580, Assemblyman Jim Patterson employed the 50,000-watt megaphone at his disposal to unofficially declare his candidacy for a Fresno County supervisor’s seat in 2024 once he reaches California’s 12-year term limit for state legislators.

Assuredly the same seat — District 2 representing most of north Fresno and a sliver of Clovis — currently occupied by fellow Republican Steve Brandau. Who will be up for reelection in 2024 and intends to run for a second full term.

“I want to come home,” Patterson told The Bee in a subsequent interview.

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“The reason I wanted to tip my intentions was to give other people sort of a heads-up. I think it will cause people to start deciding about their support and other plans.”

Brandau definitely got the heads-up. Whether he appreciated it or not, well, you be the judge:

“If I were Jim, I would have waited until his current Assembly race was certified; you know, let the ink dry,” Brandau responded via text. “I would also have thanked the voters of Assembly District 8 rather than tell them I am looking for a new job.”

Gonna take that as a firm “no.”

A Patterson-Brandau square off for county supervisor would be a fascinating contest between local GOP stalwarts who are on the same side on most issues and share the same conservative support base. One primary difference is age. Patterson is 74, 15 years Brandau’s senior.

But considering District 2’s purple voter makeup (38% Republican, 35% Democrat and 19% No Party Preference per the California Secretary of State’s latest registration figures), only one is likely to reach the November ballot.

Crowded field anticipated for Assembly race

Brandau could also opt out of a tussle with the former Fresno mayor from 1993-2001 and join what’s certain to be a crowded field for Patterson’s current office in Sacramento.

Assembly District 8 spans parts or all of eight counties but heavily favors a Republican from north Fresno or Clovis. (To win his sixth and final two-year term, Patterson defeated Libertarian candidate Thomas Nichols with 74% of the vote.) Names being bandied about for that contest include Fresno County Supervisor Nathan Magsig and termed-out Fresno City Councilmember Garry Bredefeld.

Also lurking is Andreas Borgeas, the Fresno Republican who lost his state Senate seat to redistricting. Borgeas did not seek reelection in 2022 but will find the AD 8 boundaries much more to his liking, should he decide to reenter politics.

No list of potential GOP candidates for elected office is complete without current Fresno Mayor Jerry Dyer, who is expected to run for reelection in 2024 but hasn’t said anything yet.

And that’s just the Republican side of things. On the Democratic side, the biggest question for 2024 (with the largest domino effect) is whether Jim Costa will seek a 10th term in the House of Representatives.

Costa’s newly drawn 21st Congressional District is tilted heavily blue (Democrats are +17% over Republicans in voter registration) and extremely Fresno-centric. Much more so than the district he served from 2013-22 that included large portions of Madera and Merced counties.

His new district’s friendly boundaries may cause the 70-year-old career politician — Costa served 16 years in the state Assembly and eight in the Senate before heading to Washington, D.C. — to stick around a while longer. Nancy Pelosi was 82 when she finally put the gavel down, for goodness sake.

Or Costa could cede the reins to a new generation of elected Democrats, in which case Assemblyman Joaquin Arambula would be his logical successor. And that would touch off a wild scramble among Fresno Democrats to take Arambula’s place in Sacramento.

Another Democrat-friendly office up for reelection in 2024 is the Fresno County supervisor seat in District 3 representing central and south Fresno. Sal Quintero ran unopposed in 2020, but you have to wonder whether certain members of the Fresno City Council will give him another free pass.

I’m thinking not. Which would give local Democrats a contest that nearly matches the inner-party intrigue of the one brewing between Patterson and Brandau.

Election season never truly ends. It just switches cycles.