Jim Moore: No one figured the Seahawks would be this good and this lucky — it’s amazing

We’ve seen it, all of it, and none of us would have believed it when the season started. Geno Smith would be sensational. Russell Wilson would be terrible. The Super Bowl champion Rams would be too. The 49ers would lose their best two quarterbacks to injuries, giving the Seahawks a realistic shot at the NFC West title and not only a playoff berth but at least one playoff game at home.

And the Seahawks would be in position to have the No. 3 pick in the 2023 NFL draft because of what’s happening in Denver instead of Seattle. After 12 games if you thought one team would be 7-5 and the other 3-9, the good team would have been the Broncos, the bad team the Seahawks.

In a private moment, John Schneider and Pete Carroll must be laughing hysterically, tears streaming down their cheeks, looking at each other in disbelief, reveling in their good fortune. They traded Wilson at the best time possible, earning a haul in return, and found a franchise quarterback on their own bench, one that will prevent them from HAVING to select a quarterback with their pick from Denver.

The latest chapter in this unforgettable season was written Sunday in Los Angeles where the Seahawks scrapped out a 27-23 victory over the depleted Rams as Smith turned in yet another dazzling performance. Wilson’s former backup went 28 for 39 for a career-best 367 yards and three touchdowns, including the 8-yard game-winner to D.K. Metcalf with 56 seconds to go.

Smith’s 72.7 completion percentage is his most remarkable statistic. If he were dinking and dunking the Seahawks down the field, it would be understandable. But he’s frequently chucking it deep, converting explosive plays to Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, who combined for 17 catches and 255 yards on Sunday.

For the last month or so I thought the Seahawks should give him a contract extension and avoid the potential of needing to franchise tag him at the end of the season. Six weeks ago many assessed Smith’s value at $20 million to $25 million a season, and even though it seemed warranted, it might have still been tough for the Seahawks to stomach.

But now that price tag looks like a bargain, and if he doesn’t get an extension between now and the end of the season, he’s certain to be franchised and guaranteed of earning $32 million in 2023. Is Smith worth $32 million a year?

Look at other quarterbacks in that neighborhood. Carson Wentz makes $32 million a year, and he’s currently a backup in Washington. Jared Goff of the Lions makes $33.5 million, and his team is 5-7. The Colts’ Matt Ryan makes $30 million, and he’s clearly in the twilight of his career.

My favorite part about Smith’s emergence is that it puts the Seahawks in position to improve their team in other ways with their first-round pick from Denver by taking the best edge rusher or run stuffer in the draft. They can win a Super Bowl with Smith at quarterback for the next few years while grooming the next franchise quarterback, who they can select with their own first-round pick or one of two second-round picks. Or maybe they still have that future franchise guy on the roster already in Drew Lock.

That defense of theirs needs help. It’s been good at times but more often subpar, especially against the run. The Seahawks have allowed 615 rushing yards in the last three games after giving up 171 to the Rams. And the pass rush improved on Sunday, but it’s been spotty for the most part all season long.

If the draft were held today, the Seahawks would get the No. 3 pick via Denver. There’s a decent chance it could end up being No. 2 since the Broncos are a mess at 3-9 and have two games remaining against the Chiefs. They could overtake (undertake?) the 3-10 Bears in the home stretch. The top pick overall appears out of reach, even for Denver, because Houston is 1-10-1 and awful and tanking or both.

Meanwhile in San Francisco, no one wants to call a season-ending injury good news, but then again, it is for the Seahawks. Jimmy Garoppolo broke his foot against the Dolphins, and now the 49ers are down to rookie Brock Purdy for the rest of the year. Purdy played well on Sunday, guiding San Francisco past Miami, but can he keep it up? I’d say it’s possible but unlikely.

Which greatly improves the Seahawks’ chances of winning the division. The 49ers are 8-4 and host Tampa Bay this week while the Seahawks are 7-5 and host Carolina. The two teams could be tied record-wise or still just one game apart when they meet at Lumen Field in a Thursday night game on Dec. 15th.

Would you like the Seahawks’ chances of winning a big game like that at home with Carroll’s glossy prime-time record, Smith vs. Purdy and the 12’s going nutball? Regardless of how good San Francisco’s defense is, of course it improves Seattle’s hopes with Garoppolo out.

And in the worst-case scenario, let’s say the Niners go on to win the NFC West. The Seahawks would be basically battling two teams for the seventh and final playoff spot - the 7-4-1 Giants and 7-5-1 Commanders. The next-best team in the NFC is Detroit at 5-7.

New York and Washington have tougher schedules ahead than Seattle because they face games against teams from the NFC East, the league’s toughest division. The Giants’ schedule is really difficult, featuring games against the Commanders, 10-2 Vikings and two games against the 11-1 Eagles.

I don’t know if things are going to even out eventually for the Seahawks, but at this point, it’s hard to imagine a season like this ending in disappointment.

Jim Moore has covered Washington’s sports scene from every angle for multiple news outlets. You can find him on Twitter @cougsgo, and on KJR-FM 93.3, where he co-hosts a sports talk show from 10 a.m. to 1 p.m. on weekdays.