New Jersey beaches survived a bad winter. Can they withstand a severe hurricane season?

ASBURY PARK — New Jersey's beaches were beaten by a number of winter storms that brought greater than normal flooding and near-record-high storm surges.

Despite the damage, Jersey Shore beaches are ready to open for Memorial Day weekend, a leading state official said Thursday.

"Our shoreline is one of our most prized assets during the summer season," New Jersey Environmental Commissioner Shawn LaTourette said. "The Jersey Shore attracts millions of tourists, is a driver of our state's economy, (and) encourages our neighbors, and importantly, our kids to get outside and enjoy the environment that we all share."

On Thursday, LaTourette met with members of the Stevens Institute of Technology and the New Jersey Sea Grant Consortium - a collection of universities and organizations focused on sharing knowledge and advancing stewardship of the state's coastal resources - in Asbury Park to discuss how the state's beaches faired through the rough winter season.

Overlooking the beach and boardwalk from Tim McLoone's Supper Club, they discussed Sea Grant's latest "State of the Shore" report, which details increasing numbers of flood days across the southern Jersey Shore. The report also found higher than normal wave heights during storms along the northern New Jersey coastline throughout the past winter.

While the beaches are ready for the summer tourism season, LaTourette noted that these winter storms are increasing erosion and threatening New Jersey's important coastal assets.

"The repetitive nature of these erosional forces can not be ignored," he said. "We've got to take these issues seriously, and continue to ensure that we're doing everything we can (to protect the coast)."

Over the past winter, flood gauges around Sandy Hook recorded the 2nd or 3rd highest water level since Superstorm Sandy, at 8½ feet over mean lower water levels, said Jon Miller, author of the State of the Shore report and director of the Coastal Engineering Research Laboratory at Stevens Institute.

In southern New Jersey, gauges recorded two moderate flood events and 16 minor flood events, Miller said.

"The number of flooding events and the number of hours in which the water level is exceeding those National Weather Service flood thresholds is increasing," he said. "Even if the intensities of the storms don't increase, the baseline of the water level on which those storms travel is increasing."

Winter storms frequently pull sand off beaches. Over time and in calm conditions, the sand is slowly redeposited onto the beach. However, too many flood-causing events in a winter season disrupts the pattern, Miller said.

"As the number of these events increases, the beaches doesn't have enough time to recover between events," he said.

Beaches here are likely to face another threat later this year. Scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA, predict will be "above-normal hurricane activity" across the Atlantic Ocean in the coming year. La Niña conditions in the Pacific Ocean and warmer than typical ocean temperatures in the Atlantic are likely to fuel numerous, powerful hurricanes, according to the agency.

On Thursday, NOAA scientists said they anticipate between 17 and 25 storms to form this year with winds over 39 mph. The average is about 14 storms of that power, Miller said.

Of those storms, NOAA expects 8 to 13 will reach hurricane status, with winds of 74 mph or higher. Between four and seven of the Atlantic storms are likely to reach major hurricane status and be classified as Category 3, 4 or 5, according to NOAA.

"It's important to keep in mind that it does only take one storm to create dramatic impacts," Miller said.

He added: "It's extremely important that we remain vigilant in terms of taking care of the beaches, preparing the beaches, in the… downtimes between the extremes, so that we can continue to absorb the blow from these nuisance level (erosion) events. And then also be prepared and ready for those much larger events."

Amanda Oglesby is an Ocean County native who covers education and the environment. She has worked for the Press for more than 15 years. Reach her at @OglesbyAPP, aoglesby@gannettnj.com or 732-557-5701.

This article originally appeared on Asbury Park Press: Are New Jersey beaches ready for a strong hurricane season?